Dusty: Homer Bailey probably No. 4 starter, No. 5 down to Leake or Wood

[OnBaseMachine]

From Brad Johansen:

Dusty to me on starting rotation of Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto "it's probably Homer after that.." between Wood and Leake and maybe more for #5

Baker&Jocketty told me they think they know who #5 starter is now... but Walt says "we didn't expect Leake last year, anything can happen."

http://twitter.com/bradjohansen

I'm a big Mike Leake fan, but I think Travis Wood has to be in the rotation. He was arguably the Reds best starting pitcher last season after his callup. I would be shocked if he's not in the rotation to begin the season.

[dougdirt]

Good to hear that Homer doesn't have to fight for a spot. He has been VERY good over his last 160 innings pitched (3.50 ERA over that span). I am with you on Travis Wood too, there just is no way that he shouldn't be in the rotation either. All due respect to Mike Leake, but he just isn't one of the 5 best options right now IMO*.

*I would honestly have looked at him over Arroyo if the contracts weren't an issue... but they are.

[Homer Bailey]

I Wood be shocked as well.

And disappointed. I'm STRONGLY in the Wood>Leake camp.

[OnBaseMachine]

With all due respect to Mike Leake, who as am very much a fan of, I think Homer Bailey and Travis Wood are the two best options to accompany Arroyo, Cueto, and Volquez in the Reds rotation. As Doug pointed out, Bailey has been very good in his last 160 innings. His K/9 and BB/9 ratios have improved every year and last year's 3.30 BB/9 and 8.26 K/9 last season point to a breakout season. And there was nothing luck about Travis Wood's success last season - Both his K/9 (7.54) and BB/9 (2.28) were above average. I love his stuff. He locates his fastball well and his cutter induces plenty of weak contact and he has a nice changeup too. I really like his future, I'm on record as saying I think he could be a No. 2 caliber starter.

I think Mike Leake is better suited stretching his arm out in Louisville. I'm sure he'll get a few starts in Cincinnati this season anyway. It's a great problem to have when a starter the caliber of Leake is your No. 6 starter.

[membengal]

Pretty sure the Reds know it's Wood too. But what would that gain them to say that now, with spring just underway? Dusty's M.O. has been to give every player hope that their spring means something as a means to making sure the team is prepared to play the season, and keeping Wood and Leake on their toes is a part of that same M.O.

This is breaking down like a lot of people on this board predicted weeks ago, and I am next to positive that come April, it will be Wood in the rotation and Leake in AAA. Which is the right move for the team and for Leake.

On a side note, I really am expecting a breakout year from Bailey. All of his perhipherals scream it, and he's built to this point. The team has put in the time, I am hoping there is a payoff coming. I think there is.

[kaldaniels]

Find an apartment in Louisville, Mike.

[Captain Hook]

I would be surprised if there isn't a few teams don't contact the Reds before opening day about acquiring a starter.Teams serious about competing don't seem too get desperate in the off season to make a trade for a quality starter when their starters 1-3 are set.The closer they get to opening day, the more that the reality of going into the season depending on an often injured, washed up has been sets in.Not having a chance every 4th and 5th day(unless you put up 10 runs)can't set well with teams like the Yankees.I'm not saying anything gets done but I'd bet there will be some opportunity for the Reds to do something should they choose.

[fearofpopvol1]

I agree as well. I love Leake, but Wood is the guy.

Injuries are always a concern. Arroyo is really the surest bet of staying healthy. Volquez, Wood and Bailey have all had their injury issues. Cueto has managed to stay healthier. But I would not at all be surprised if 1 of the starting 5 pitchers winds up on the DL at some point this year. Maybe even 2 starters. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Griffey012]

I am still very high on Leake, but I am hoping Wood fills the 5th spot, as I think it would be great for Leake's progression to get a lot of starts in AAA.

[MrCinatit]

Wait...the Reds have an abundance of pitching! For the second year in a row!

Leake'll be up soon enough. Injury, underperformance, whatever. He'll be back up.

[Oxilon]

I wouldn't be surprised if Wood puts up better numbers than Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey this year, never the less Leake. Leake is nice depth to have, but he should be trade bait if the right deal comes along.

[kpresidente]

Honestly, why all the Travis Wood love? I mean, haven't we learned the lesson?

Volquez was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Cueto was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Bailey was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Leake was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Wood was great for half a season. ___(fill in the blank)_________.

I mean, I'm just sayin'.

[edabbs44]

I wonder if Wood is getting a little overhyped. Leake should have a fair shot at the #5 spot. I'd put my money on Wood, but I don't see him as a complete lock.

But he definitely has the upper hand, that's for sure.

[WebScorpion]

Honestly, why all the Travis Wood love? I mean, haven't we learned the lesson?

Volquez was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Cueto was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Bailey was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Leake was great for half a season. Then he came down to earth.
Wood was great for half a season. ___(fill in the blank)_________.

I mean, I'm just sayin'.

I agree with the premise, but there is one glaring difference: None of those guys are lefties. Does the formula still hold true for lefties? Stay tuned...

[Always Red]

I think Leake starts the year in Louisville and will be back up at some point.

A question- since Leake did not pitch in AAA last year, does he still have 3 option years left, or 2?