Post Draft (1st day) Top 10

[Mario-Rijo]

As far as my top ten goes, I find it neccessary to include this/these caveat. I base my top ten on probability + ceiling + impact and that's in order of importance too me. I don't care how high a guys ceiling is if he has question marks surrounding him that make his probability of making it to and staying at the big league level minimal. IMO that's not a prospect it's a suspect. The further away from the bigs the less likely they are to make it. That IMO is why we have so many arguments about prospects list we all have different criteria about what a prospect is.

That said here's mine off the top of my head.

1.) Thompson
2.) Frazier
3.) Valaika
4.) Wood
5.) Alonso
6.) Roenicke
7.) Stubbs
8.) Mesoraco
9.) Maloney
10.) Rosales

If I were ranking it strictly on star power this list could be it although I don't know about the order after Thompson it's somewhat interchangeable.

1.) Frazier
2.) Alonso
3.) Thompson
4.) Mesoraco
5.) Stubbs
6.) Wood
7.) Valaika
8.) Roenicke
9.) Soto
10.) Lotzkar

[11larkin11]

I think you are underrating Mesoraco.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think you are underrating Mesoraco.

I don't think so but you may have a different set of criteria than me. I think if he makes it all the way to MLB he is likely an above avg overall catcher. But that's a long way off and for that reason only I moved him down the list.

I would add that just because he projects to hit better than your avg catcher (at this point anyhow) doesn't make him a sure thing. If hitting alone makes you an impact player then Johnny Estrada wouldn't be on his 4th team in 4 years. Now I'm not comparing him to Estrada but he does need to be able to call a game, play good defense, stay healthy etc. And although he looks the part right now it's a long way off given his age and realistic distance from MLB.

I mean let's face it, we can't say with 100% certainty that he won't find himself in Billings before the end of this season, although right now it looks like he will skip it. The fact that he was a #1 pick keeps him high on the list right now for most and not much more.

[dougdirt]

The fact that he was a #1 pick keeps him high on the list right now for most and not much more.

The fact that he is hitting extremely well for a teenager in the Midwest League has less to do with his ranking than where he was drafted at? Teenagers in the MWL from 2002-2005 the average OPS for a teenager in the MWL was .725. Take first baseman out of the equation and its down to .705. Mesoraco is hitting very well for his age in the MWL.

[Mario-Rijo]

The fact that he is hitting extremely well for a teenager in the Midwest League has less to do with his ranking than where he was drafted at? Teenagers in the MWL from 2002-2005 the average OPS for a teenager in the MWL was .725. Take first baseman out of the equation and its down to .705. Mesoraco is hitting very well for his age in the MWL.

He has 96 PA's and a .764 OPS (small sample alert), and those #'s you are speaking of are for how many PA's? And to take that one stat further he's killing LHP's in a much smaller sample size (.876 in 39 PA's) and vs. RHP he has 57 PA's and a paltry .681 OPS. He is doing ok given his age and inexperience but he's not exactly got a track record yet. Let the league adjust too him and see what happens, then it should be a much better picture.

[dougdirt]

He has 96 PA's and a .764 OPS (small sample alert), and those #'s you are speaking of are for how many PA's? And to take that one stat further he's killing LHP's in a much smaller sample size (.876 in 39 PA's) and vs. RHP he has 57 PA's and a paltry .681 OPS. He is doing ok given his age and inexperience but he's not exactly got a track record yet. Let the league adjust too him and see what happens, then it should be a much better picture.

Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.

[Mario-Rijo]

Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.

I agree so far so good, let's hope he keeps it up and then some.

But just strictly based on his age and distance from MLB I had to knock him down the rung a few pegs more than others I don't think that's unreasonable at this point.

[Betterread]

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Valaika
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Juan Francisco
6. Matt Maloney
7. Zach Stewart
8. Stubbs
9. Mesoraco
10. Roenicke
Next 10 - no particular order -
Sean Watson, Cumberland, Lotzkar, Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Jordan Smith, Danny Dorn

I really want to believe that Travis Wood will be a legitimate ML Lefty starter, but he just does not have a feel for a breaking pitch and his fastball will never again reach 94 - I think the Reds hurt his velocity by "smoothing out" his delivery. Why do so many young guys lose velocity once they hit the Reds' developmental team? The Reds just don't seem to have developmental staff that can sustain and augment fastball velocity.

[Kc61]

[QUOTE=RedlegJake;1661659]Daryl Thompson

Todd Frazier

Yonder Alonso

Travis Wood

Josh Roenicke

Matt Maloney

Chris Valaika

Drew Stubbs

Devin Mesoraco

Juan Francisco

Danny Herrerra

Sean Henry

Neftali Soto

Sean Cumberland

Zach Stewart

Danny Dorn

Juan Duran

Ramon Geronimo

Ben Jukich

Kyle Lotzkar

Sean Watson

Tonys Gutierrez

21 guys who get someone's eye as a top ten. [QUOTE]


I agree that this is an impressive list. But to me the place where this group will make a clear impact soon is in the bullpen.

From the right side in particular, there's Roenicke, Watson and Stewart, three power arms. Add this list to Cordero and Burton and the righty power bullpen situation looks great going forward. From the left side, not quite as impressive, but add Herrera to Bray with hopefully Viola getting back on track, there's some potential there too.

Then there's Geronimo and Fisher and any starter who gets converted to the pen and you have quite a list. (Wouldn't be shocked if Maloney pitched middle relief to ease him into the major leagues.)

[dougdirt]

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Valaika
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Juan Francisco
6. Matt Maloney
7. Zach Stewart
8. Stubbs
9. Mesoraco
10. Roenicke
Next 10 - no particular order -
Sean Watson, Cumberland, Lotzkar, Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Jordan Smith, Danny Dorn

I really want to believe that Travis Wood will be a legitimate ML Lefty starter, but he just does not have a feel for a breaking pitch and his fastball will never again reach 94 - I think the Reds hurt his velocity by "smoothing out" his delivery. Why do so many young guys lose velocity once they hit the Reds' developmental team? The Reds just don't seem to have developmental staff that can sustain and augment fastball velocity.

You don't think Travis Wood is one of the Reds 20 best prospects?

[reds44]

Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.

And he's a catcher. A catcher who can hit (asssuming he can play defense) is much more valuable than a 1st baseman who rakes.

[Tommyjohn25]

Maybe this belongs in another thread, but I have a quick question. What is the timetable for Duran to get started in the organization?

[reds44]

Maybe this belongs in another thread, but I have a quick question. What is the timetable for Duran to get started in the organization?

I remember reading something earlier in the year that he could play in Billings or for the GCL Reds this year.

[Mario-Rijo]

And he's a catcher. A catcher who can hit (asssuming he can play defense) is much more valuable than a 1st baseman who rakes.

Well that goes without saying if he does indeed continue to hit, I have no specific reason to think that he won't personally. However If you look at the long laundry list of 1st round catchers that did neither in a major league uniform you get what I'm saying.

[Betterread]

You don't think Travis Wood is one of the Reds 20 best prospects?

He is for this moment (I meant to list Wood. I listed Jordan Smith twice by mistake in the 10-20 range)- but as soon as he gets hurt again (which I don't wish for) which is predictable, given his delivery and age.

He and Dorn are tough for me to project. Wood because his breaking ball is so poor, and Dorn because he hasn't shown what position he can play ML defense at. Wood's changeup is of such high quality that he could easily overcome the faults I find with him, and I hope he does make it.