...for Paul Janish to be the full-time SS next year?
Use any metric or rationale you wish!
...for Paul Janish to be the full-time SS next year?
Use any metric or rationale you wish!
As long as he doesn't change his current approach (only swing when I have to, try to get on base by whatever means necc., and work the hell out of the pitcher all while playing very good defense) then it doesn't have to be much of an improvement.Originally Posted by nate
.240 BA .330 OBP .650-.700 OPS
Assuming of course we add the neccessary offense to make it palatable. But since I doubt that happens he probably can't do enough.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Using a combination wOBA, OPS, ISOP, ISOD, BABIP, and wRAA, I formulated that Janish would have to hit exactly...
better than he has shown he is capable of hitting, in order to be the full time SS next year. But he might show enough improvement from now until the end of the season.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
If they get more offense to put around him, then his numbers can go down.
If the roster stays the same, he needs to put up about a 1.200 OPS.
That shouldn't be a problem, should it?
I think, with a little hard work, he can get into that neighborhood.
Let's assume he's a +10 fielder. At absolute bare minimum he needs to be a -10 bat, which is something like a .250/.320/.330 line over 600 PA. That would him more or less replacement level. For a league minimum salary and barring better options, that's "acceptable".
If we want to actually compete next year and want more than replacement level, it goes up from there. If he can play above average defense and hit .260/.340/.360, I'd be satisfied.
Of course, right now he's hitting .224/.302/.284, which is just some slugging short of his PECOTA weighted mean projection of .223/.296/.341. I'm not sure we should have too much optimism that he'll be able to hit enough to make his glove worthwhile. The way things look right now, his upside is acceptable stopgap starter, his mid-level is acceptable defensive replacement, and his downside is AAA fodder.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
If Janish can put up an OBP of around .330 the he can become an every day SS as long as he hits in the 8th hole. If Dusty wants him to hit in the 2 hole then he needs to get that OBP up even higher, around the .350 mark.
Arbitration will probably be a bit rough after that.
.350 OBP, don't care about the SLG
Just a quibble...... The above scenario (+10 glove/-10 bat) would make Janish 27.5 runs better than replacement (there is a 20 run difference between average and replacement and playing defense at short is worth an additional 7.5 runs over 600 PAs worth of playing time) or a 2.75 win player.
To be a -10 bat, he'd have to post 600 PAs with a wOBA of roughly .310 (depending upon how he got there, that would translate into an OPS in the .690-.700 range).
I don't think his bat is good enough for him to be an everyday player.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Both of those figures were meant to be above replacement. With defense, replacement is average. So he'd be +10 above average/replacement on defense and -10 below replacement in my scenario -- which I suppose still puts him at 7.5 runs due to the positional adjustment.
My OPS figures were a rough approximation, but I think the conclusion is similar. Given that he hits for little power at all (ISO less than .100), he needs to push that average up above .250-260 to get his OBP and SLG to the .340-.350 range and make his bat acceptable.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
At the moment, he is performing WAAAY better (OBP .310 to .258) than Gonzalez did at any time this season. The same goes for Stubbs...he's already outperforming (OBP .281 to .273; OPS .707 to .557) Taveras this season, so the removal of those two was a marked improvement in both our defense AND offense.
I think Janish is at the lower end of acceptable now, as long as he's batting 7th or 8th. If he can get it (his OBP) up to .350 he'll be more palatable as a #2 hitter, but still not ideal. Dickerson's OBP is .373...as far as I'm concerned, you need to beat that to sit at the top of the order in 2010.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that once was good, and what could be again." -- Terence Mann
The problem here is that when each of these players is viewed individualy they all could be viewed as "acceptable" with good defense and enough offense to get by. But no team can really afford to carry three or four line-up spots like that. Add the catcher spot to a line-up with Stubbs and Janish and it really leaves the team short. I'd say Stubbs and Dickerson could platoon and provide acceptable lead-off production and that the catching tandem could hit eigth, but even though Janish has been doing well, the Reds will need more offense with those two spots already in the line-up. The team needs to really look to bring in either a SS or a C who can provide offense as well as decent defense. I'm not sure there is money to do either and we may just end-up with this team next year. Bit players to provide LH ABs in LF and another catcher and that just about eats-up whatever money this team has left. Gomes will require $2 Million plus, a left handed counterpart possibly as much and a decent veteran catcher probably in the $2 to 3 Million range as well. Just no money to bring in a big player for one of these spots unless Cordero/Harang/Arroyo are moved.
I've said it in other threads and I become more convinced each day, this team needs a couple top end talents in the rotation and the line-up to move into contention and there is simply no money to acquire any. The best chance that this team realistically has is for Bailey, Cueto and Bruce to become what they were once projected to be. Its probably still a long shot, but its more likely that Bailey becomes an ace than it is that this team would have the combination of money, talent and attraction to acquire and keep one. Its more likely that Bruce becomes the MVP caliber bat that this team needs to propel the line-up with Votto, Rolen and Phillips than it is this team can acquire somebody. Those things happen, and solid role player types like Stubbs, Janish, Arroyo and Harang provide solid support, but if Bailey, Cueto and Bruce become simply role players or less themselves, then the Reds need to upgrade other spots to star caliber players and I just don't see the team being able to do so without a significant financial leap of faith from Cast and the limited partners. The payroll would probably need to jump well over $100 Million to acquire what is needed to go with the guys already here.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
If he's going to be the #2 hitter, I care a lot more about his OBP than his SLG. The same could be said for Drew Stubbs as long as he's leading off. Therefore, a .340 OBP with a SLG of at least .330 will make me happy.
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