Bailey / Latos LTC ?

[RedsManRick]

I don't know if I agree with not locking up the best core . Isn't that like playing not to lose??

Best core, sure. But how far do you extend that? How much of your payroll do you tie up in how many players?

I'd definitely choose Latos over Bailey, no doubt. But once we're in a spot where something like 60 or 70% of our payroll is locked up for years to come, it limits our ability to adapt should something go wrong. So I only lock up guys who I literally cannot replace in FA.

[RadfordVA]

I like Latos alot but still would not extend now. The time to extend a guy like him, if you were going to do so was a couple years ago. That is when he was making nothing and might have wanted a sure thing. You may have been able to get away with only buying out a couple of his first two free agent years. He has already reached arbitration and is less likely to settle for less than market value. Better off to wait and see how things develop. You are always capable of extending close to free agency at retail value if need be. Pitchers are too volatile and almost always pay off to wait them out.

If padres had waited on Peavy and not extended him, his last year under rookie deal would have been his last great healthy season. Until last year when he finally pitched 200 innings again.

[klw]

If I was Walt I would try to extend both/ either but I worry that Bailey wants out of GABP- simply because of his comments about the place.

[kbrake]

Does anyone really know what the payroll limitations are though? I never thought the Votto extension would happen, didn't think it would be affordable for the Reds. After the Votto deal though I was convinced that meant definitely no money left for a Phillips extension. I understand not wanting to tie up all of the payroll in a handful of guys but do we really have any idea what is affordable to this franchise at this point?

[kaldaniels]

I have no idea what the payroll limitations are or what the players would ask for.

But with my limited knowledge at some point I'd make Latos my target for a LTC, and be prepared to lose Cueto and Bailey at the end of their deals. Can't keep them all.

[smixsell]

I'm all in favor of a LTC for Latos, but I'd like to see at least one more healthy and consistent season out of Bailey to go LTC on him.

[mth123]

King Felix deal may raise everyone's price. I'd guess they both are going to wait for the market to continue shifting up as Felix, Kershaw and Verlander raise the upper limit and bring everyone else for the ride. I think it will take 4 years, $60 Million to get Latos and 4 years, $45 Million or so for Bailey.

That's not the market now, but once these Aces sign, it will be IMO.

[REDREAD]

Another way to look at it.
I think most people want to keep Latos at least until he is FA eligible.
Even if the Reds only sign him through his arb years, that will give them cost certainty which is useful for signing other players. As others said, prices are likely to only go up, it's hard to believe buying his arb years out now will bite us, provided Latos stays healthy (which is a risk).

I just have a gut feel that Homer is going to want more than he's worth. Can't really say that I blame him, as he's been one of the team whipping boys until this year.

[nate1213]

I have no idea what the payroll limitations are or what the players would ask for.

But with my limited knowledge at some point I'd make Latos my target for a LTC, and be prepared to lose Cueto and Bailey at the end of their deals. Can't keep them all.

Exactly my thinking. By that time we could have Latos, Chapman, and Stephenson at the top of the rotation, which if things pan out shouldn't be bad at all. Now the question is do you play out Cueto's contract or trade him before the end of 2015? Well, that question is actually a little loaded, but it's something that is interesting to think about.

[Gary Redus]

For the first time in recent memory (maybe ever) we have a legitmate core of young pitchers. And as others have said the cost will only go up. If I have to chose, I'd pick Latos - buy out his arb years for a couple of extra years of control. I'd perfer to have both as I think Bailey figured it out last year.

[HokieRed]

I interpreted the question to ask what we think the Reds will actually get accomplished, not what we'd like to see done, and thus I voted that neither will be signed. I think the Felix deal just confirms what I've said here before: the trend is higher. Why should they sign?--particularly Bailey, who, in another ballpark, would arguably raise his value significantly? What might LA pay Bailey in 2 years?

[New York Red]

I'm wary of locking up a core, suffering some injuries and winding up with a full payroll and not enough talent. I'd take my chances year-to-year for at least one more year.

My thoughts exactly. No need to rush. But if I had to pick one, it would definitely be Latos. He has the makings of a career horse.

[Kc61]

At this point I think we know in Latos we have an Ace in the making. I would like to see another year out of Homer before I would offer him a LTC. There have been a lot of guys who get rewarded after 1 good year and then never live up to the potential of the contract. It may cost us a few more dollars to make LTC later on, but I would rather be sure in what the Reds invest in.

If I were guessing, I'd say the Reds feel exactly this way. Nice post.