Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Ok thanks. If I may let me ask this question. Hypothetically if Juan Francisco walks at 4%, K's at 20%, gets 600+ pa's and has a slightly high BABIP doesn't that give us a really definitive general area of what he will do? And if so what is that? Let's just say he hit 7th in the lineup, which would be pretty likely.

It depends on how much power he hits for. But lets just say he gets a BABIP in the .315 range, above league average.... here is the range of things we could expect.

I gave him 5 sac flies, 1 sac hit and 5 HBP.

PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
625	589	35	2	25	25	125	.280	.313	.474	.315
625	589	34	2	27	25	125	.282	.314	.484	.314
625	589	33	2	29	25	125	.285	.317	.496	.316
625	589	33	2	31	25	125	.287	.319	.508	.315
625	589	32	2	33	25	125	.289	.321	.518	.314
625	589	32	2	35	25	125	.290	.322	.530	.313
625	589	31	2	37	25	125	.294	.325	.542	.315
625	589	31	2	39	25	125	.295	.327	.553	.314
625	589	30	2	41	25	125	.299	.330	.565	.315
625	589	30	2	43	25	125	.301	.332	.577	.315
625	589	30	2	45	25	125	.302	.333	.589	.314
625	589	30	2	47	25	125	.306	.337	.603	.315

Basically what we see is that if he isn't hitting for an elite level of power, his OBP is going to absolutely suck. Assuming he doesn't improve on a 4% BB rate or 20% K rate.

[Mario-Rijo]

It depends on how much power he hits for. But lets just say he gets a BABIP in the .315 range, above league average.... here is the range of things we could expect.

I gave him 5 sac flies, 1 sac hit and 5 HBP.

PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
625	589	35	2	25	25	125	.280	.313	.474	.315
625	589	34	2	27	25	125	.282	.314	.484	.314
625	589	33	2	29	25	125	.285	.317	.496	.316
625	589	33	2	31	25	125	.287	.319	.508	.315
625	589	32	2	33	25	125	.289	.321	.518	.314
625	589	32	2	35	25	125	.290	.322	.530	.313
625	589	31	2	37	25	125	.294	.325	.542	.315
625	589	31	2	39	25	125	.295	.327	.553	.314
625	589	30	2	41	25	125	.299	.330	.565	.315
625	589	30	2	43	25	125	.301	.332	.577	.315
625	589	30	2	45	25	125	.302	.333	.589	.314
625	589	30	2	47	25	125	.306	.337	.603	.315

Basically what we see is that if he isn't hitting for an elite level of power, his OBP is going to absolutely suck. Assuming he doesn't improve on a 4% BB rate or 20% K rate.

And given what he has done in the minors I can't see him reaching those levels, his career minor league #'s are .281/.311/.482 and even if we assume improvement we also have to consider how tough it will be making the move to the majors. I think the absolute best you could expect right away would be something like .260/.280/.460 = .740. Not that great for a best case scenario. Of course that's better than I would have guessed. I just think if he reverts to minor league Juan and that discipline he'll get worked like a rented muel in the bigs.

And let me just state for the record that by no means would I like to see him struggle, I'd love to be as optimistic as some guys are about him but I just don't see it happening. I say this because too often people get confused that because someone is low on their expectations for someone it gets colored as we just don't like them so we are purposely making up scenarios where they can't excel. I just whole heartedly believe what I say about Juan and so far know one has given me any good reason to re-consider my position on his future, including Juan.

[GOYA]

Age 22:

Frazier: A and A+

.291/.368/.485 - .853

541 PA
112 K
19 HR

Francisco: AA, AAA and MLB

.300/.349/.522 - .871

588 PA
122 K
28 HR

[Brutus]

Age 22:

Frazier: A and A+

.291/.368/.485 - .853

541 PA
112 K
19 HR

Francisco: AA, AAA and MLB

.300/.349/.522 - .871

588 PA
122 K
28 HR

Francisco's numbers were very good this year. That's not being disputed. The problem is that A) they have not been replicated by him yet at any level with any consistency and B) his peripherals have very long history of being unsustainable at the Major League level, at least while still having much success.

It's not that he didn't hit well this year, it's that historically, his rates suggest a major tumble at the Major League level unless he continues to improve in those areas.

[thorn]

The problem is he can't play defense anywhere, at least he hasn't proven it yet, Frazier can at least be good at 3B and LF.

[dougdirt]

Age 22:

Frazier: A and A+

.291/.368/.485 - .853

541 PA
112 K
19 HR

Francisco: AA, AAA and MLB

.300/.349/.522 - .871

588 PA
122 K
28 HR

Issue is, Francisco's BABIP on the season was unsustainable due to crazy rates at AAA and MLB. Like I said earlier in the thread... Frazier can play in the majors today without changing anything and be an .800 OPS bat. Francisco simply can't. He has a lot to change before he can do that.

[Brutus]

Issue is, Francisco's BABIP on the season was unsustainable due to crazy rates at AAA and MLB. Like I said earlier in the thread... Frazier can play in the majors today without changing anything and be an .800 OPS bat. Francisco simply can't. He has a lot to change before he can do that.

Not to mention that the BABIP in AAA is usually 10 points higher than MLB and AA is usually about 5-10 points higher than AAA.

[lollipopcurve]

Frazier can play in the majors today without changing anything and be an .800 OPS bat. Francisco simply can't. He has a lot to change before he can do that.

I don't buy that you can know this. You've underestimated Francisco pretty consistently.

[RedsManRick]

Every year, Francisco adjusts to a new level and takes off in the second half. This year was no exception. It's a pattern for his whole career.

Career minor league average stats are meaningless because, by definition, these are young players improving. You have to look at the trajectory. Season by season, half by half.

I agree that aggregate minor league performances aren't terribly meaningful. You're dealing with both a player who is developing his skills and significant changes in the quality of his competition. But once you start looking at less than full seasons, your samples sizes decrease in to the realm of meaningless in and of themselves -- that is, it is impossible to separate the performance variations resulting from true development from those resulting mere luck/noise.

One could take your argument to the extreme and suggest we should look month by month or week by week and develop fantastic narratives about skill development that have nothing to do with reality. Half seasons are pretty much that inflection point where the performance data become meaningless -- skill data hold up better, but you're still on much firmer ground given 500 PA.

In the 3 seasons in which Fransisco has had a significant number of at bats against a given level of competition, he has yet to OPS over .820 nor OBP over .320. His sucess in small samples in AAA and MLB were driven almost exclusively by unsustainably high BABIP (.444 and .615 respectively). His success above AA in no way indicates an improvement in his actual ability; he continued to do the same things at the plate he always did -- he just got really good results from it -- unsustainably good results.


Looking at his 3 full minor league seasons paints a very clear picture:

Year	Age	Lg	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
2007	20	A	4.1	30.1	.195	.340
2008	21	A+	3.6	23.8	.219	.324
2009	22	AA	4.4	20.8	.220	.312

- Right age for the level compared to most good prospects
- Poor BB% with no clear trend
- Poor K% which has significantly improved each year
- Very good ISO power which has held steady
- BABIP which has always been slightly favorable but reasonable given the typical defensive performances in the minors

To reiterate the point, Fransisco did nothing in AAA and MLB other than display the same skill set he's displayed the past 3 years. That his results were great in a very small sample tells us nothing that his skill stats don't.

Let's explore the major league comps concept in more depth. Here are all the players in MLB last year with 400 PA and a BB% south of 5%, sorted by K%.

Name		Team		BB% 	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
Miguel Olivo	Royals		4.6%	32.3%	0.15	.249	.292	.490	0.781	0.241	.307
Delmon Young	Twins		2.9%	23.3%	0.13	.284	.308	.425	0.733	0.142	.344
Ivan Rodriguez	- - -		4.1%	21.6%	0.2	.249	.280	.384	0.663	0.134	.297
Kevin Kouzmanof Padres		4.9%	20.0%	0.25	.255	.302	.420	0.722	0.164	.289
Rod Barajas	Blue Jays	4.5%	17.7%	0.26	.226	.258	.403	0.661	0.177	.234
Freddy Sanchez	- - -		4.6%	16.6%	0.29	.293	.326	.416	0.742	0.123	.340
Alex Gonzalez	- - -		4.9%	16.6%	0.31	.238	.279	.355	0.635	0.118	.267
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	4.1%	16.5%	0.26	.265	.304	.379	0.683	0.114	.302
Jeff Francoeur	- - -		3.7%	15.5%	0.25	.280	.309	.423	0.732	0.143	.311
Vladimir Guerre	Angels		4.7%	14.6%	0.34	.295	.334	.460	0.794	0.164	.314
Willy Taveras	Reds		4.3%	14.4%	0.31	.240	.275	.285	0.559	0.045	.278
Cristian Guzman	Nationals	2.9%	14.1%	0.21	.284	.306	.390	0.696	0.105	.322
Bengie Molina	Giants		2.6%	13.8%	0.19	.265	.285	.442	0.727	0.177	.273
Dioner Navarro	Rays		4.6%	13.6%	0.35	.218	.261	.322	0.583	0.104	.233
Jose Lopez	Mariners	3.8%	11.3%	0.35	.272	.303	.463	0.766	0.191	.274
Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	4.8%	11.1%	0.45	.352	.386	.465	0.851	0.113	.384
Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	4.7%	10.4%	0.47	.274	.313	.421	0.734	0.147	.284
A.J. Pierzynski	White Sox	4.5%	10.3%	0.46	.300	.331	.425	0.755	0.125	.314
Robinson Cano	Yankees		4.5%	9.9%	0.48	.320	.352	.520	0.871	0.199	.326
Cesar Izturis	Orioles		4.4%	9.8%	0.47	.256	.294	.328	0.622	0.072	.280
Yuniesky Betanc	- - -		4.3%	9.4%	0.48	.245	.274	.351	0.625	0.106	.260
Miguel Tejada	Astros		2.9%	7.6%	0.4	.313	.340	.455	0.795	0.142	.323
Average		- - -		4.2%	15.0%	0.32	.272	.305	.410	0.715	0.139	.298

Notice the OPSs of guys with high K rates. It's not pretty. The only guys on that list with an OPS north of .800 are two extremely good contact hitters, one with good power who plays in a park built for his swing and another with freakish speed and infield hit ability. I'm optimistic that he'll take another step forward in AAA next year, but Doug's point remains. Unless he ups his BB% and/or continues to lower his K%, his ceiling is limited - Miguel Olivo, Ty Wigginton or Cody Ross with less defensive value.

[dougdirt]

I don't buy that you can know this. You've underestimated Francisco pretty consistently.

Well, his contact/walk/power rates all suggest that he can OPS .800 right now. Francisco's simply don't. Its math. Baseball can be figured out on a calculator in a lot of cases. Figuring out ones slash line is generally fairly easy if you know how often they walk, how often they strike out and how much power they are likely to hit for. Using that data, its pretty easy to see that Frazier can OPS .800 with his current peripherals. Its not the same case for Francisco right now. And as for me underrating him.... compared to who? What is the basis for the comparison that I underrate him?

[mace]

It depends on how much power he hits for. But lets just say he gets a BABIP in the .315 range, above league average.... here is the range of things we could expect.

I gave him 5 sac flies, 1 sac hit and 5 HBP.

PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
625	589	35	2	25	25	125	.280	.313	.474	.315
625	589	34	2	27	25	125	.282	.314	.484	.314
625	589	33	2	29	25	125	.285	.317	.496	.316
625	589	33	2	31	25	125	.287	.319	.508	.315
625	589	32	2	33	25	125	.289	.321	.518	.314
625	589	32	2	35	25	125	.290	.322	.530	.313
625	589	31	2	37	25	125	.294	.325	.542	.315
625	589	31	2	39	25	125	.295	.327	.553	.314
625	589	30	2	41	25	125	.299	.330	.565	.315
625	589	30	2	43	25	125	.301	.332	.577	.315
625	589	30	2	45	25	125	.302	.333	.589	.314
625	589	30	2	47	25	125	.306	.337	.603	.315

Basically what we see is that if he isn't hitting for an elite level of power, his OBP is going to absolutely suck. Assuming he doesn't improve on a 4% BB rate or 20% K rate.

OK, we'll use your projection. I'll take the median, the numbers between the sixth and seventh samples (out of 12). That would give Francisco a Cincinnati season of .292 BA, 172 H, 315 TB, 36 HR, .323 OBP. Let's compare that to Brandon Phillips' numbers this year batting cleanup for the Reds: .276 BA, 161 H, 261 TB, 20 HR, .329 OBP. With those totals, Phillips drove in 98 runs. With an extra 11 hits, 16 HR and 54 total bases, how many do you think Francisco would have driven in? A conservative estimate would add another 20. That's 118 RBIs. That's substantially more than Adam Dunn, with all his walks and homers, has ever driven in.

[dougdirt]

OK, we'll use your projection. I'll take the median, the numbers between the sixth and seventh samples (out of 12). That would give Francisco a Cincinnati season of .292 BA, 172 H, 315 TB, 36 HR, .323 OBP. Let's compare that to Brandon Phillips' numbers this year batting cleanup for the Reds: .276 BA, 161 H, 261 TB, 20 HR, .329 OBP. With those totals, Phillips drove in 98 runs. With an extra 11 hits, 16 extra HR and 54 extra total bases, how many do you think Francisco would have driven in? A conservative estimate would add another 20. That's 118 RBIs. That's substantially more than Adam Dunn, with all his walks and homers, has ever driven in.

You are looking at it the wrong way though. You are equating runs with an individual's RBI. Even if you added in that individuals runs scored you are still missing a significant part of the puzzle.

I went ahead and used Baseball Musing's lineup calculator to plug in Francisco's line from above and then Dunn's line of .250/.380/.520. Its not even close as to which team is going to score more runs.
Francisco's lineup would score 755 runs. Dunn's would score 772 runs. The reason is pretty simple. Dunn is going to extend innings and create more run chances for the rest of the team. He is going to give the team a likely additional 51 plate appearances for the team in a given year (assuming they both start with an equal 600 PA, Dunn would make 34 less outs, then the next guy would turn those 34 chances into 12 more, then the next guy 4 and the next guy 1, so 34+12+4+1=51 extra times to the plate). Those are going to add up and Francisco isn't going to create those extra 51 run scoring chances for his team that someone like Dunn or another .380 OBP guy is going to. Simple RBI and Runs don't count for those extra chances the guys behind him get.

[mace]

That's a fair and good point. Did you plug them both into the 4-hole? Because it's hard for me to figure that Dunn's production in that spot is going to play out that way, comparatively. First, Francisco, as we've shown, would drove in substantially more runs. A key purpose of a hitter, any hitter, is to maximize the other hitters in the lineup. The task of the top two or three guys in the order is essentially to get on base. To maximize those efforts, you want the 4 guy to drive them in. Francisco is very well suited for that, more so than Dunn. Yes, Dunn will create more at-bats for the following players. But, for starters, each successive player is ostensibly less of a threat to drive in those runs (or else they'd be hitting cleanup). So, by walking, the cleanup hitter is deferring his duty. That's why cleanup hitters get pitched around so much. They often walk because the pitcher wants them to walk. The walk is disadvantageous to the offense. So those extra 51 plate appearances that you're talking about are not quite as pure and simple as they sound. Even so, 51 PAs equates to a little more than a game's worth, or about 5 runs. So you're talking about five runs here, in a pure scenario that doesn't actually exist.

Even with all of that, I'd probably agree that Dunn, with those numbers, is a more productive all-around hitter. My problem with his presence on the Reds was that they had him in the wrong spot. I think he'd have been much more effective in the 3-hole, where both his walks and power would have played to advantage. But that's really not the issue here. The question is whether this 22-year-old is one of the Reds' best prospects. My take is that, right now, he projects as a better cleanup hitter than the one the Reds already have (although probably not better than Votto). If a 22-year-old projects to 118 RBIs, I think he's a pretty legitimate and exciting prospect.

He's also, evidently, a really good topic of conversation.

[dougdirt]

That's a fair and good point. Did you plug them both into the 4-hole? Because it's hard for me to figure that Dunn's production in that spot is going to play out that way, comparatively.

Yes, I did. And its not likely because of the hits that it plays out. Its because of the extra plate appearances for the entire line up.

First, Francisco, as we've shown, would drove in substantially more runs. A key purpose of a hitter, any hitter, is to maximize the other hitters in the lineup.

We haven't shown that at all. All that you showed was that Brandon Phillips had X RBI with Joey Votto and his .400+ OBP in front of him and what Dunn wasn't able to do without ever having a guy like that getting on base in front of him.

The task of the top two or three guys in the order is essentially to get on base. To maximize those efforts, you want the 4 guy to drive them in. Francisco is very well suited for that, more so than Dunn. Yes, Dunn will create more at-bats for the following players.

Dunn isn't the ideal run driver in because he simply doesn't put the ball in play a ton. No argument there. HE is a better run producer though because he produces runs by avoiding outs and continuing the inning, as well as slugging the snot out of the ball when he does put it in play.

But, for starters, each successive player is ostensibly less of a threat to drive in those runs (or else they'd be hitting cleanup). So, by walking, the cleanup hitter is deferring his duty.

You are speaking about a lineup where 1 hitter is counted on to carry the offense. You simply aren't going to have that kind of offense. Walks aren't a problem with RBI. Here is the list of guys with 100 RBI in baseball this year.

Name	        RBI 	BB
Adam Dunn	105	116
Albert Pujols	135	115
Prince Fielder	141	110
Jason Bay	119	94
Bobby Abreu	103	94
Carlos Pena	100	87
Mark Teixeira	122	81
Alex Rodriguez	100	80
Derrek Lee	111	76
Mark Reynolds	102	76
Ryan Howard	141	75
Victor Martinez	108	75
Evan Longoria	113	72
Matt Holliday	109	72
Ryan Zimmerman	106	72
Andre Ethier	106	72
Justin Morneau	100	72
Miguel Cabrera	103	68
Hanley Ramirez	106	61
Adam Lind	114	58
Ryan Braun	114	57
Jason Kubel	103	56
Nick Markakis	101	56
Matt Kemp	101	52
Jorge Cantu	100	47
Kendry Morales	108	46
Aaron Hill	108	42
Carlos Lee	102	41

Notice hot just about everyone walked at least 60 times (more than twice what Francisco is expected to walk in a full season)? Walks aren't a problem in having RBI. The duty of the player, every single one of them, is to get to first base without making an out. If you do that, you did your job.

That's why cleanup hitters get pitched around so much. They often walk because the pitcher wants them to walk. The walk is disadvantageous to the offense. So those extra 51 plate appearances that you're talking about are not quite as pure and simple as they sound. Even so, 51 PAs equates to a little more than a game's worth, or about 5 runs. So you're talking about five runs here, in a pure scenario that doesn't actually exist.

The #3 and #8 hitters both had more IBB's than the 4th hitter in 2009. The walk isn't disadvantageous. Its actually quite good because it adds another base runner, making another chance for the team to score. The only way its bad is when your #5 hitter is Willy Taveras, which, well isn't going to happen.

Even with all of that, I'd probably agree that Dunn, with those numbers, is a more productive all-around hitter. My problem with his presence on the Reds was that they had him in the wrong spot. I think he'd have been much more effective in the 3-hole, where both his walks and power would have played to advantage. But that's really not the issue here.

The real problem was not having anyone of quality ever hitting behind him to take advantage of him being on first base 240 times a year or having Brandon Phillips and his .320 OBP in front of him leaving him fewer RBI chances on the 40 HR he hit per year.

The question is whether this 22-year-old is one of the Reds' best prospects. My take is that, right now, he projects as a better cleanup hitter than the one the Reds already have (although probably not better than Votto). If a 22-year-old projects to 118 RBIs, I think he's a pretty legitimate and exciting prospect.

He's also, evidently, a really good topic of conversation.

The problem is, there is absolutely no evidence that he projects to 118 RBI. None. There is also no reason to even care about RBI because its a team stat that is not telling of a players ability at all. Its like wins for a pitcher. Its pretty to look at, but it doesn't tell us jack squat about the player because of the other factors that go into that number. Think about what Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto could have driven in with guys on base in front of them instead of a combo of Taveras/Gonalez and Janish. Imagine if they had Ichiro and Chase Utley batting in front of them, Joey Votto may have driven in 140. Its a number that is all about chances, not a number that is about a players skillset.

[Mario-Rijo]

OK, we'll use your projection. I'll take the median, the numbers between the sixth and seventh samples (out of 12). That would give Francisco a Cincinnati season of .292 BA, 172 H, 315 TB, 36 HR, .323 OBP. Let's compare that to Brandon Phillips' numbers this year batting cleanup for the Reds: .276 BA, 161 H, 261 TB, 20 HR, .329 OBP. With those totals, Phillips drove in 98 runs. With an extra 11 hits, 16 HR and 54 total bases, how many do you think Francisco would have driven in? A conservative estimate would add another 20. That's 118 RBIs. That's substantially more than Adam Dunn, with all his walks and homers, has ever driven in.

Problem is he has never hit for those kind of power numbers to this point. His best season was this year in AA and AAA for 27 HR and 31 DBls. He's at best likely slugging at below the .474 clip under the 1st projection.