Drew Stubbs....

[M2]

I think that's a bit pessimistic. Players can and do improve, even as they move up the levels. I agree, the problem with Stubbs is that his floor is so low and that compared to most top prospects, he's less likely to reach the majors. But let's not discount the possibility that he maintains an .800 OPS (.370/.430) as he moves up through the levels.

It's true that players do improve, but Stubbs would have to improve to be a .790 OPS guy in AA and then improve again to be a .790 OPS guy in AAA and then improve again to be a .790 OPS guy in the majors. For the record, Stubbs has improved over last year to be .790 OPS guy in A+ ball.

Take a look at major league players. There aren't many who didn't have a breakout season by Stubbs' age. Torii Hunter is a notable exception. He was a fairly bad hitter in the minors until he was 24. Generally speaking, if you want a guy to be an .800+ OPS player with any regularity in the majors (and that is absolutely what you need from a CF), then you generally are looking out for players who've hit for .900+ OPSes somewhere on their rise up the ladder.

Yet there's likely going to come a time when Stubbs can't carry those meager stats up to the next level and then his value becomes minimal. Chances are he's either going to make a big jump in his plate skills at some point or fade away. You really don't see players that are able to maintain their game at just good enough.

[RedsManRick]

M2, I'm the last guy to be optimistic about Stubbs, but you are being pretty strict.

1. He's only in his 2nd full minor league season, so it's a bit early to complain that he hasn't broken out.
2. He's supposedly a gold glove caliber defender. Even a .750 OPS makes him an asset if that's true.
3. If anything, what I've seen suggest that Sarasota is on par with Chattanooga on an absolute scale of difficulty for hitters. That is, a .775 OPS in the A+ converts to a .775 OPS in AA for Reds hitters -- that's as is, actual improvement notwithstanding.

I agree, it's a steep uphill climb for Stubbs. The nature of his hitting problem is contact. Unfortunately, I've not seen any evidence or education suggestion that contact ability is a skill that can be significantly improved -- unlike power (with age) and plate discipline (with instruction and experience). He's also old for an elite prospect, as most great players are in the upper minors, if not majors by age 23. I think his most likely career path looks an awful lot like Chris Dickerson's.

Maintaining, if not improving, one's level of performance as he moves up is not exactly rare. It's not exactly to be expected either.
But there's no need to exaggerated the case that he's likely to fizzle out in the not to distant future.

[TRF]

His 23% line drive rate and 16.5% walk rate in May really disagrees that the FSL pitchers have figured him out. He had some strikeout issues in May that were rough, but lets not discount the fact that he had a rough month in the BABIP department by ~.070 which would account for about 5 more hits on the month, pushing his OPS to .708 in May, which would make his entire line to .294/.402/.433 for an .835 OPS.

Now lets take all of that out of the equation.... right now Drew Stubbs has improved his numbers from last year at a higher level in the most difficult place to hit in all of the minor leagues. That is impressive. While he may not be what some of you want him to be, I think it is overlooked an awful lot what he is doing in the FSL in terms of his improvement.

You point out hislow BABIP in May and ignore his ridiculously high BABIP in April. Yet his May BABIP was far closer to a normal one than April. Also, it's a sample size issue. We have a profile in A+ ball of two Drew Stubbs: a .900+ OPS beast, and a sub .600 Juan Castro lite.

It's true that players do improve, but Stubbs would have to improve to be a .790 OPS guy in AA and then improve again to be a .790 OPS guy in AAA and then improve again to be a .790 OPS guy in the majors. For the record, Stubbs has improved over last year to be .790 OPS guy in A+ ball.

Take a look at major league players. There aren't many who didn't have a breakout season by Stubbs' age. Torii Hunter is a notable exception. He was a fairly bad hitter in the minors until he was 24. Generally speaking, if you want a guy to be an .800+ OPS player with any regularity in the majors (and that is absolutely what you need from a CF), then you generally are looking out for players who've hit for .900+ OPSes somewhere on their rise up the ladder.

Yet there's likely going to come a time when Stubbs can't carry those meager stats up to the next level and then his value becomes minimal. Chances are he's either going to make a big jump in his plate skills at some point or fade away. You really don't see players that are able to maintain their game at just good enough.

Stubbs will likely NEVER have a sustained .900 OPS at any level in the minors. He just doesn't have the power. I heard a coach say he thought Jay Bruce would hit better at higher levels due to the fact that more advanced pitchers will be around the plate more. I really hope that is the case for Stubbs, but more advanced pitchers also have that extra little wrinkle: an out pitch. Like I said do to the fact that he seems much closer to his floor than his ceiling, I see him as a 4th OF. Which wouldn't be bad for a 6th round pick, but not a 1st rounder. Stubbs has been lapped by several Reds farmhands picked after him in 2006. Dorn and Valaika most notably. Keltavious Jones, picked in the 27th round, and is a year younger than Stubbs is putting up similar numbers at Dayton as Stubbs in 2007. Strikingly similar.

Stubbs is more likely to produce seasons closer to his floor than his ceiling. That makes his selection a bad one, but he'll have his uses. But his K rate coupled with his lack of power makes his high OBP a possible mirage. If pitchers know they can get him to wiff, then that's what they'll do.

[TRF]

3. If anything, what I've seen suggest that Sarasota is on par with Chattanooga on an absolute scale of difficulty for hitters. That is, a .775 OPS in the A+ converts to a .775 OPS in AA for Reds hitters -- that's as is, actual improvement notwithstanding.

If this is the case, and I'm not saying it isn't, we still don't have enough data on Stubbs in high A to say he is a .770 OPS player. He had a month of greatness followed by a month of awful. June is his time to either rise or fall, in his case fall would be stay in Sarasota. If he doesn't get promoted in the next 30-40 days, I'd say he's in High A for the rest of the season. That puts him on a very slow track to the majors.

[crazyredfan40]

TRF, just curious why you don't think of his numbers in Dayton as not really telling the whole story as he played injured most of the year last year, and same for Billings...

This year while healthy, he has hit the ball well with a good line drive rate, which leads to my feeling that if he was healthy last year his numbers would of been better...

Just curious what type of numbers you are wanting to see out of Stubbs...

[dougdirt]

You point out hislow BABIP in May and ignore his ridiculously high BABIP in April. Yet his May BABIP was far closer to a normal one than April.

Except thats not true. BABIP is generally LD% + .120. Factor in his speed and thats probably worth another 15 points.

April BABIP = .310 (LD%) + .120 + .015 = .445 BABIP. Actual BABIP was .470.
May BABIP = .210 (LD%) + .120 + .015 = .345 BABIP. Actual BABIP was .281.

May in fact was more unlucky than April was lucky when you take into account what he actually did with his bat.

Stubbs will likely NEVER have a sustained .900 OPS at any level in the minors. He just doesn't have the power. I heard a coach say he thought Jay Bruce would hit better at higher levels due to the fact that more advanced pitchers will be around the plate more. I really hope that is the case for Stubbs, but more advanced pitchers also have that extra little wrinkle: an out pitch. Like I said do to the fact that he seems much closer to his floor than his ceiling, I see him as a 4th OF. Which wouldn't be bad for a 6th round pick, but not a 1st rounder. Stubbs has been lapped by several Reds farmhands picked after him in 2006. Dorn and Valaika most notably. Keltavious Jones, picked in the 27th round, and is a year younger than Stubbs is putting up similar numbers at Dayton as Stubbs in 2007. Strikingly similar.

Drew Stubbs is going to hit for some power once he leaves the FSL. He won't go Jay Bruce or anything, but his IsoP will be around .150-.175. As for Dorn and Valaika, no, they haven't lapped him. Dorn has to absolutely hit lights out considering he plays below average defense in a corner outfield position. Valaika I could listen to an argument for, but lets assume he gets moved off of SS and that argument doesn't seem so good anymore.

Stubbs is more likely to produce seasons closer to his floor than his ceiling. That makes his selection a bad one, but he'll have his uses. But his K rate coupled with his lack of power makes his high OBP a possible mirage. If pitchers know they can get him to wiff, then that's what they'll do.

His high OBP is a possible mirage? Based on what? The guy has had strong walk rates EVERYWHERE he has ever been. Again though, what does his selection being a bad on in your opinion have anything to do with what he is currently doing?

[TRF]

TRF, just curious why you don't think of his numbers in Dayton as not really telling the whole story as he played injured most of the year last year, and same for Billings...

This year while healthy, he has hit the ball well with a good line drive rate, which leads to my feeling that if he was healthy last year his numbers would of been better...

Just curious what type of numbers you are wanting to see out of Stubbs...

I expect a top 10 pick top OPS north of .850 at every level. The injury/raw label doesn't wash for me.

[crazyredfan40]

I expect a top 10 pick top OPS north of .850 at every level. The injury/raw label doesn't wash for me.

Even a gold glove caliber CF....800+ would be great IMO...

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Even a gold glove caliber CF....800+ would be great IMO...

Exactly. I'd take a Mike Cameron (.784 career OPS) over a Geoff Jenkins (.841 career OPS) any day of the week.

If Drew Stubbs is a Mike Cameron, he's worth every bit of his top 10 selection.

[mbgrayson]

I have posted this before, but what do you guys make of Stubbs home/road splits:

Road: .324/.438/.500 for an OPS of .938.
Home: .198/.316/.292 for an OPS of .607.

It may help Stubbs to get out of Sarasota....and into a different home park.

[dougdirt]

I have posted this before, but what do you guys make of Stubbs home/road splits:

Road: .324/.438/.500 for an OPS of .938.
Home: .198/.316/.292 for an OPS of .607.

It may help Stubbs to get out of Sarasota....and into a different home park.

Bad luck at home. Huge line drive rate at home and a terrible average.... those two things don't generally go with each other. One interesting thing though is his groundball rate is much higher at home than on the road.

[Homer Bailey]

Yeah, he is. Its the Florida State League.

I keep forgetting that when I look at the stats.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Make him earn it a little more IMO. The only reason they would be promoting him would be his draft status, it wouldn't be based on production. If there was a random 23-year-old OF at Sarasota right now batting .268 with 2 HRs who wasn't a top 10 pick, would anyone be saying to call him up to Chattanooga? Heck no.

Let's have a good draft today and get one step closer to forgetting about the Drew Stubbs disaster.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I have posted this before, but what do you guys make of Stubbs home/road splits:

Road: .324/.438/.500 for an OPS of .938.
Home: .198/.316/.292 for an OPS of .607.

It may help Stubbs to get out of Sarasota....and into a different home park.

Well, his overall numbers are pretty much exactly the same as they were last year (which is mediocre at best) except with even less power. Honestly, people can try and skew the numbers and spin the numbers however they want, but the fact is that since Drew Stubbs has been a professional baseball player, he hasn't hit a lick. At least not on a consistent basis. I hope he turns it around. I would love for the Reds to have a good RHH OF in a couple years to pair with Bruce (and hopefully Dunn). But I would be beyond shocked if Stubbs will be an everyday starter with the Reds (or any other MLB team).

[M2]

Exactly. I'd take a Mike Cameron (.784 career OPS) over a Geoff Jenkins (.841 career OPS) any day of the week.

If Drew Stubbs is a Mike Cameron, he's worth every bit of his top 10 selection.

At Stubbs' age, Mike Cameron was busting out with a 1.004 OPS in AA.

Another thing to remember about Cameron is he's played the bulk of his career in three of the best pitching parks in baseball. He has a career .812 road OPS. Had he played his career in Cincinnati you've got to figure the .826 OPS mark he put up in 1999 would have been his norm.

Based on the above, I reject the notion that we've seen anything Cameronesque from Stubbs to date.

What Stubbs needs to do is play better (something Devin Mesoraco has been doing of late). No one digs into you LD% and then ponders whether you're a soft liner specialist if you're putting up the kind of numbers a top prospect should put up. If Stubbs plays better then we take comfort in the notion that the Reds should have a semi-productive CF on their hands in another two years. If he doesn't then he's probably going to hit his ceiling in the high minors.