Future is now for Reds' Votto

[BoydsOfSummer]

I hope he's not too attached to the number he wears.

[AmarilloRed]

I'm a big fan of Scott, but Conine is probably similar in price and he is also a righty (which would be better for a platoon situation). Scott's value right now is at an all time high and he is sort of old. I think you can actually get a prospect with return for him. I could be wrong though.

I am pretty sure than when Votto is brought up he will be the starter, and not in a platoon situation. I think you could get a prospect for both of them. I do think you could get a better prospect for Scott,though.

[fearofpopvol1]

I am pretty sure than when Votto is brought up he will be the starter, and not in a platoon situation. I think you could get a prospect for both of them. I do think you could get a better prospect for Scott,though.

I definitely think (especially if he's brought up this year) that you'll see Conine platooning with Votto on the days that Lefties are pitching. If you get rid of both Hatte and Conine, who is going to back him up? Javy?? I don't see them trading both away.

[AmarilloRed]

I definitely think (especially if he's brought up this year) that you'll see Conine platooning with Votto on the days that Lefties are pitching. If you get rid of both Hatte and Conine, who is going to back him up? Javy?? I don't see them trading both away.

I must not have made myself very clear. I think one of them will be traded at the trading deadline, not both. I just thought Hatteberg would bring more back in a trade than Conine. I also don't think it is a good idea to start out platooning Votto until he proves he cannot hit left-handers on the major league level.

[Kc61]

Votto has 11 homers this year. He's slumping now, which doesn't concern me, but the lack of power production this year does concern me.

[dougdirt]

Votto has 11 homers this year. He's slumping now, which doesn't concern me, but the lack of power production this year does concern me.

Joey has changed his approach this season a little. He is going to the opposite field a lot more this year.

[AmarilloRed]

I can accept reduced power if he is learning to use the whole field. I am a little bit concerned about the slump-the pitching will be a lot tougher in the majors.

[mth123]

Votto is the first real Reds 1B prospect in years. Since I usually try to avoid front running, Votto is currently my "favorite" Reds propsect (as opposed to Bruce or Bailey). But I have to say, if the power proves to be Caseyesque, I'm not sure that the Reds wouldn't be better off extending Hatte for a couple years (or at least invoking the 2008 option) and packaging Votto with a second or third tier pitching prospect (like say Dumatrait or Lecure) in a deal for good young pitcher. My hope for Votto is that he becomes the first real Reds first baseman in a long time to provide the consistent slugging and OBP combo that the position demands and generally is being provided to the Reds competition by opposing 1B on a nightly basis. Mark Grace was a pretty good player and its probably unfair, but if Votto emerges as a player of that ilk at 1B, I'll be disappointed in spite of the fact that he will have been a success. I want a productive bopper at 1B for a change. IMO the lack of one has been a root element in many of the Reds problems of the last several years (most notably the need to compensate by using questionable defenders in order to get more compensating offense at key defensive spots).

Get your power back Joey. 11 AAA HRs and a sub .480 slugging % at this point of the AAA season is a bit disappointing and leaves me a little concerned as to how those numbers will project in the bigs. The .547 Slugging % from 2006 seems like ancient history right now.

[dougdirt]

Joey has slugged an even .500 since April ended. He got his contacts the first week of May. Louisville does not give up many HRs compared to most of the IL and also supresses triples. Likewise it does allow a lot of doubles. As a league the IL supresses HR, doubles and singles compared to the rest of the minors. While that doesn't explain all of Votto's slugging issues, he is playing in a pitcher friendly environment in the IL.

[mth123]

Joey has slugged an even .500 since April ended. He got his contacts the first week of May. Louisville does not give up many HRs compared to most of the IL and also supresses triples. Likewise it does allow a lot of doubles. As a league the IL supresses HR, doubles and singles compared to the rest of the minors. While that doesn't explain all of Votto's slugging issues, he is playing in a pitcher friendly environment in the IL.

Thanks Doug. My complaint with the Reds 1B solutions for the last 30 years or so has been the lack of power. Hatte is having a good year and provides a lot of things to the Reds (but not enough power IMO), but I look forward to having a more prototypical player at 1B. If that isn't Votto and the best we can expect is more of the same (which isn't all bad), then it may be time to take advantage of the very reasonable option that the Reds have with Hatte and use Votto as bait to acquire reinforcements in other areas. The Reds could surely get a much better pitcher by trading Votto than by trading Hatte. I've been a big proponent of Joey, but I'm starting to wonder if trading him for another top starter to pair with Bailey might not be the way to go. I doubt that we'll see the 2007 Hatte again, but at $1.85 Million even the 2006 version would be a pretty good investment (especially if it frees the Reds to flip Votto for a much needed starter). My concern is that Votto's MLB numbers will be in the .300/.380/.450 range (a reasonable expectation given a AAA line of .312/.409/.477). Those aren't bad and pretty valuable for league minimum dollars, but not really hard to replace at 1B. A long term pitcher would probably be more valuable - especially with a short term, low dollar 1B substitute in hand. Its possible Votto's numbers will go up in Cincy with GABP helping him out, but its still a jump to the bigs and I'd have to expect his MLB numbers would be lower than the numbers he's putting up in AAA.

Minnesota, for example, could benefit by using Votto as a DH/1B right now and his LF experiment plays right into their needs for the future. If he and a lesser pitcher could fetch Garza or Slowey it has to be considered IMO. I don't think Hatte would bring back anything close to that. Votto's youth and low dollar years all being ahead of him really boosts his trade value in comparison to the usual suspects that we have been discussing the Reds dealing.

[Aronchis]

[QUOTE=mth123;1414180]Thanks Doug. My complaint with the Reds 1B solutions for the last 30 years or so has been the lack of power. Hatte is having a good year and provides a lot of things to the Reds (but not enough power IMO), but I look forward to having a more prototypical player at 1B. If that isn't Votto and the best we can expect is more of the same (which isn't all bad), then it may be time to take advantage of the very reasonable option that the Reds have with Hatte and use Votto as bait to acquire reinforcements in other areas. The Reds could surely get a much better pitcher by trading Votto than by trading Hatte. I've been a big proponent of Joey, but I'm starting to wonder if trading him for another top starter to pair with Bailey might not be the way to go. I doubt that we'll see the 2007 Hatte again, but at $1.85 Million even the 2006 version would be a pretty good investment (especially if it frees the Reds to flip Votto for a much needed starter). My concern is that Votto's MLB numbers will be in the .300/.380/.450 range (a reasonable expectation given a AAA line of .312/.409/.477). Those aren't bad and pretty valuable for league minimum dollars, but not really hard to replace at 1B. A long term pitcher would probably be more valuable - especially with a short term, low dollar 1B substitute in hand. Its possible Votto's numbers will go up in Cincy with GABP helping him out, but its still a jump to the bigs and I'd have to expect his MLB numbers would be lower than the numbers he's putting up in AAA.

2007 Hatt? Not that impressive. When you factor in poor defense, Cooper is right about Hatt, mediocre player(if not worse). I can't believe you want to extend him.

Myth, your post is speaking from very poor analysis. Casey and Votto are 2 different hitters. Casey was a slashy hitter with modest power projection. Votto is a control hitter with very good raw power(as Krivsky alluded to himself last year in one of his better moments of clarity). Power and hr's are the most overused stat in minor league ball. It is why I care little about Jay Bruce's doubles. Hitting and ability to hit with good power potential is the key not minor league power. Casey only was able to put up 2 years of his peek power with his slashing style. When his power declined, he was left as a essentially a specialist. Votto as a power hitter and 1st base defensive potential offer a player much more likely to peek in his late 20's and early 30's. His power numbers will only rise into the future, not decline. Power is the last tool to develope.

The poor analysis of Votto never ceases.

[mth123]

2007 Hatt? Not that impressive. When you factor in poor defense, Cooper is right about Hatt, mediocre player(if not worse). I can't believe you want to extend him.

Myth, your post is speaking from very poor analysis. Casey and Votto are 2 different hitters. Casey was a slashy hitter with modest power projection. Votto is a control hitter with very good raw power(as Krivsky alluded to himself last year in one of his better moments of clarity). Power and hr's are the most overused stat in minor league ball. It is why I care little about Jay Bruce's doubles. Hitting and ability to hit with good power potential is the key not minor league power. Casey only was able to put up 2 years of his peek power with his slashing style. When his power declined, he was left as a essentially a specialist. Votto as a power hitter and 1st base defensive potential offer a player much more likely to peek in his late 20's and early 30's. His power numbers will only rise into the future, not decline. Power is the last tool to develope.

The poor analysis of Votto never ceases.

I hope you are right about Joey's future and I have been pretty high on Votto until this year. I'm disappointed with a .480 slugging % from a AAA 1B whom everyone expects to be the long term answer. If his power is going to increase as time goes on, how do you explain a .547 slugging % in 2006 versus what we've seen this year? His power may develop in his late 20s or early 30s as you suggest, but by then he'll be expensive. What does your superior analysis suggest for his cheap years? If the power isn't there until 2011 or 2012 he's basically Casey or Hatte until then no matter how different they are from a style or technique standpoint. You don't get style points from the French judge in MLB. Its production that counts. If the production is going to be 5 years out (as your post implies), I'd rather deal him and get a pitcher and just go with Hatte. I'm not a huge Hatte fan either, but w/o power that is basically what Joey Votto will provide. You can wait 4 or 5 years for the power if you want, but by then the window of opportunity for the Reds will be closing and it will be rebuild time again. Trade Votto for a pitcher and exchange his non power years (based on the implications from your posts superior analysis) for any number of non power players who can provide a little OBP. The Reds have one in hand with a pretty reasonable option.

OTOH, if your post has mis-stated what your superior analysis predicts and you think that Votto will be an immediate upgrade from what Hatte provides, I can be convinced because that was what I was thinking prior to this season.

BTW, I wouldn't extend Hatte unless Votto could be traded for a high ceiling, near MLB ready impact type starter like Slowey or Garza. If they can't get that, I keep Votto. But if Votto could get that, what would your superior analytical instincts rather have - A top young starter and another year of Hatte for cheap or Votto and $1.85 Million in payflex?

[bucksfan2]

I thought Hatty had about a 1.5M option for next year. He will be 38 (i think) so an extentin is highly unlikely. Conine is here on a 2 year deal I believe and I hated the deal but I like Conine the player now. He could be a true team leader. I think Votto has more raw, developable power than Casey had and he has also shown the ability to steal a base. I think his speed is the one huge advantage Votto the prospect has over Casey

[Kc61]

The Reds must add a righty power hitter if they ever hope to be a well balanced offensive team. This is a must. Presumably he is a first baseman, outfielder, or third baseman. I have no trouble with EE staying, but he is not the middle-of-order guy I have in mind.

I think Bruce should be a Red for 10 years or more. I think Hamilton should stay a Red given his great overall ability. That means either --

Votto gets traded, or

Griffey and Dunn are eventually replaced by a righty bat.

I guess a great hitting catcher or shortstop would do the trick, but those are rare.

Personally, I would like to keep Votto because he seems to have plate discipline and can be a good all around hitter someday. Seems capable of the long ball and the base hit, which I like. But something has to give. The team will never be acceptable offensively if all its power is from the left side.

[SMcGavin]

2007 Hatt? Not that impressive.

We are talking about the guy with a .401 OBP right? I like Joey Votto but there is no way that Votto's first season in the bigs is going to be as good as Scott Hatteberg has been this year.