Lincecum opens up eyes at Giants camp

[edabbs44]

It does in a way. Something about Stubbs made the Reds talent evaluators say sign this guy. Something that most scouts didn't see. Something that most publications didn't see either.

Most scouts did see the talent and most publications did as well. But they also saw the risk.

Everyone knew the risk was his bat.

Remember in fantasy football a couple of years ago when Priest Holmes was the man? And towards the end of his career, no one wanted to take him b/c you knew he would get hurt and LJ would finally take over? But someone had to take him, b/c if he panned out he would carry your team? So he would always go after the sure things (LT and Alexander), like at #3 or #4?

That's what I felt like with this draft pick. The Reds were the first team who thought that there was no one worth taking over Stubbs and the associated risks.

If he learns to hit, he will be awesome. If he doesn't, he might be ok.

That's not the kind of risk I think you should be taking with your top 10 pick.

[lollipopcurve]

That's not the kind of risk I think you should be taking with your top 10 pick.

Some would say Lincecum's small stature and unorthodox delivery make him a high risk for injury. Risk is in the eyes of the beholder.

[dougdirt]

Most scouts did see the talent and most publications did as well. But they also saw the risk.

Everyone knew the risk was his bat.

Remember in fantasy football a couple of years ago when Priest Holmes was the man? And towards the end of his career, no one wanted to take him b/c you knew he would get hurt and LJ would finally take over? But someone had to take him, b/c if he panned out he would carry your team? So he would always go after the sure things (LT and Alexander), like at #3 or #4?

That's what I felt like with this draft pick. The Reds were the first team who thought that there was no one worth taking over Stubbs and the associated risks.

If he learns to hit, he will be awesome. If he doesn't, he might be ok.

That's not the kind of risk I think you should be taking with your top 10 pick.

Very good post. With that said I agree with you that you dont make that type of pick 90% of the time. But with last years draft being so bad, that might be the year you take that pick.

[TRF]

Teams like the Reds, or rather teams in the same situation the Reds were in during the '06 season can't afford to take those risks.

Phillips wasn't a risk. he was more of a flyer. low risk, high reward. Same with Ross.

But a 1st round pick going to a position player with questions about his bat? For a pitching starved organization that's a real head scratcher.

[dougdirt]

TRF, you keep saying the Reds are pitching starved.... they arent. The Reds have much better pitching in the system than they do hitting... especially going into last years draft.

[edabbs44]

TRF, you keep saying the Reds are pitching starved.... they arent. The Reds have much better pitching in the system than they do hitting... especially going into last years draft.

The Reds have Bailey. Wood and Cueto are good prospects, but not ones you would really bet money on.

Smaller mkt teams will always be pitching starved, especially since the Meches of the world are commanding 8 figure salaries.

Bats are easier to come by...Cincy should follow the Marlins and build up their pitching.

[TRF]

TRF, you keep saying the Reds are pitching starved.... they arent. The Reds have much better pitching in the system than they do hitting... especially going into last years draft.

at the beginning of 2006, the Reds best pitching prospects were all at Sarasota or Dayton. All were at High A or lower.

Yes, that is pitching starved. It's better this year as there were once again no major injury catastrophes hitting the pitchers. The top pitching prospect will likely start in AAA. The next best pitching prospect is Cueto, who might start in AA, or he might repeat High A. Wood will likely be in Sarasota.

Linecum could have been starting this year alongside Bailey at AAA. Milton's contract is up at the end of the year, and the Reds can let Lohse walk as well. The 2008 rotation could look like this:

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Linecum
and a fifth guy like EZ.

Now that could be some rotation.

[dougdirt]

The Reds have Bailey. Wood and Cueto are good prospects, but not ones you would really bet money on.

Smaller mkt teams will always be pitching starved, especially since the Meches of the world are commanding 8 figure salaries.

Bats are easier to come by...Cincy should follow the Marlins and build up their pitching.

To follow the Marlins plan, the Reds need to trade Griffey, Dunn, Arroyo, Harang and probably a few other guys.

As for Wood and Cueto, they are two of the more talented guys in the organization. What I was getting at is my top 5 prospects include Wood, Cueto, Bruce, Bailey and Votto. Not in that order. But after that there are a lot of questions about everyone left. I think after that the Reds have more promise on the ptiching side than a the hitting side. Sure you dont want to bet on prospects, but if you want to do that, you never put your money on any pitching prospect.

[flyer85]

BTW, in Goldstein's(BP) top 100 prospects Lincecum is #6.

Bailey is #4 and Bruce #10.

Might've been nice to have 3 in the top 10 and two likely ready to contribute in 2007.

Stubbs was just outside the top 100.

[dougdirt]

at the beginning of 2006, the Reds best pitching prospects were all at Sarasota or Dayton. All were at High A or lower.

Yes, that is pitching starved. It's better this year as there were once again no major injury catastrophes hitting the pitchers. The top pitching prospect will likely start in AAA. The next best pitching prospect is Cueto, who might start in AA, or he might repeat High A. Wood will likely be in Sarasota.

Linecum could have been starting this year alongside Bailey at AAA. Milton's contract is up at the end of the year, and the Reds can let Lohse walk as well. The 2008 rotation could look like this:

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Linecum
and a fifth guy like EZ.

Now that could be some rotation.

Sure, but fast forward to July 2007 and you could have Bailey in the majors, Cueto in AA and Wood could also be on his way to joining him there if he performs well. Sure Lincecum looks good right now, but I can not stress this enough.... he has thrown 31.2 professional innings. Thats it. They were VERY good innings for sure. But he has a ridiculously small sample size, and a ridiculously small frame to work with. There are a lot of people worried about him holding up.... a lot.

[flyer85]

If he learns to hit, he will be awesome. If he doesn't, he might be ok.

if he doesn't he may spend his life in perpetual A ball with BJ.

[bucksfan2]

Has anyone seen Stubbs play? Im wondering if his inability to hit is because of some flaw in his swing. For example if he had a flaw in his swing a college coach would more than likely Stubbs be Stubbs because he would have a better chance of winning. Whereas when he gets to Billings, the manager there probably could care less about winning and more about the development of his players. When you aren't overwhelmed by winning you can do more tinkering with a player than whey you are trying to win a title. You've seen examples of college coaches throwing out their ace pitcher with a tired arm on short rest to hopefully close a game. They really have no regard for anything else than winning.

Do you really think that the reds, an organization that has been so hurt by pitcher injuries, could risk taking a guy with a questionable makeup and delivery.

[flyer85]

I read an article by some supposed "hitting guru" who made the point that his hands and body are disconnected during his swing and it was one of the worst he had seen. Made same statement about only getting by because of exceptional ability. Predicted that he doesn't get it fixed his hitting will get progressively worse as he moves up the minors.

In the end he will be defined by performance, not predictions.

[edabbs44]

To follow the Marlins plan, the Reds need to trade Griffey, Dunn, Arroyo, Harang and probably a few other guys.

As for Wood and Cueto, they are two of the more talented guys in the organization. What I was getting at is my top 5 prospects include Wood, Cueto, Bruce, Bailey and Votto. Not in that order. But after that there are a lot of questions about everyone left. I think after that the Reds have more promise on the ptiching side than a the hitting side. Sure you dont want to bet on prospects, but if you want to do that, you never put your money on any pitching prospect.

Griffey could go and I wouldn't bat an eye.

Dunn would be the Cincy version of Cabrera.

Arroyo could go and probably get good value for him. I would like to see that. With Lohse, Milton and Saarloos behind the top 2, I think Arroyo's value will be wasted with the Reds over the next few years. With Arroyo, they'll go 74-88. Without him they'll go 67-93.

Harang would play the role of Willis.

To say the Reds have more pitching in the minors than hitting is like saying the homeless guy in front of Saks Fifth Avenue is living better than the homeless guy in front of Blimpie's.

I'd rather be pitching rich in the minors. The Reds are not that, so keep building the pitching.

[Handofdeath]

It does in a way. Something about Stubbs made the Reds talent evaluators say sign this guy. Something that most scouts didn't see. Something that most publications didn't see either.

You act as if they signed the guy off some sandlot in Amarillo. The Astros drafted the guy out of high school in the 3rd round. Baseball America also reported right before the Reds drafted Stubbs that if Dayton Moore were already calling the shots for the Royals draft-wise he would advocate taking Stubbs #1 overall in the draft. They also went on to project Stubbs as going to the Reds at #8 and said that Baltimore would take him at #9 if he were available. If the Reds didn't take him, Stubbs absolutely was going to be drafted in the Top 15. If you don't like the pick or don't think much of his potential, that's one thing. But to make the above statements? You're better than that.