Looking back at Krivsky 2006 draft

[Red Heeler]

We will disagree on this point. To draft someone simply because they can contribute faster is poor decision making at its finest. If you think that player A can be a better player 5-6 years down the road, but that player B will reach the majors a year and a half faster, but only be 75% of the player A.... it would be extremely foolish to take player B. Chris Valaika did not appear to be overdrafted at the time, Watson I will give you, but there were rumors that he would have been taken later in the second round by a few other teams.... so he was not completely over drafted.

Doug,
The problem comes with trying to project guys who are a long ways off from the majors. Toolsy players with questions about their baseball skills miss their projections a lot more often than they hit them (see Pena, Wily Mo).

I'm certainly not advocating picking a player who is most likely a middle reliever over a potential ace just because the relief pitcher is closer to the majors. I'm saying that I would pick a pitcher who is LIKELY to be a #3 starter in two years over a pitcher who COULD be an ace in five years.

[dougdirt]

Doug,
The problem comes with trying to project guys who are a long ways off from the majors. Toolsy players with questions about their baseball skills miss their projections a lot more often than they hit them (see Pena, Wily Mo).

I'm certainly not advocating picking a player who is most likely a middle reliever over a potential ace just because the relief pitcher is closer to the majors. I'm saying that I would pick a pitcher who is LIKELY to be a #3 starter in two years over a pitcher who COULD be an ace in five years.

There is a difference in drafting a toolsy guy who isnt much of a baseball player over a solid player who is close, but to take a guy who you think can be ready in a year rather than take a guy who you think will be better and ready in 2.5 years would be poor drafting in my mind.