Here's a hopeful thought. Will Patterson's OBP increase if he's only playing against right handed pitching?
Here's a hopeful thought. Will Patterson's OBP increase if he's only playing against right handed pitching?
Crud! I just answered my own question.
Patterson's career OPS against lefties is .344 and against righties it's .286!!!
Career OBP splitsOriginally Posted by UPRedsFan
vs. RHP .306
vs. LHP .275
you tell me if he should be batting leadoff on ANY major league team?
More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can't wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that's not only better, but also more directly involves me.
These numbers are from 2007 not career. For some reason he faired better against left handers last year.
Anyway he's only a good option as a pinch runner or late inning defense. It'll just bring Jay Bruce up from AAA that much quicker when Patterson cools off and is hitting .240 in April.
I like the idea of Patterson at least being a platoon player on this team. If Freel is traded then him and Hopper can keep CF warm for Bruce (assuming Bruce is indeed headed to Louisville). I don't think Corey is a long term solution, but he does bring at least some leadoff abilities, and if plays poorly in April I'm sure Dusty will eventually step in and cut back his playing time. Even if Bruce does make the team I still want a player to platoon with him at first, I mean Bruce is supposed to ultimately be a RF for the Reds afterall and Dusty seems somewhat concerned about the Jay being a viable everyday centerfielder.
The main reason why patterson was brought in was that scouts said that he had improved his hitting approach in the second half of last year. Dusty said just that the other day.
I am down here in Sarasota and after seeing patterson in around a half a dozen games, I can say that it does look like he has better approach. It is definitely worth looking at him for a month in the regular season to see I he really has changed. If not, then bring up Bruce.
The Phillips pickup was made when we were starting Tony Womack at 2B I believe, so I don't think anyone was up in arms over it. Not to mention Patterson has a WAY longer track record than Phillips did when we picked him up. The man has 3000 major league ABs. He's almost 30 years old. His career OBP is .298. If Bruce isn't ready, then start him in AAA, but there's not a need for Patterson when we already have Hopper and Freel out there. I would a thousand times rather start Freel in CF than Patterson. Freel, in the worst year of his career last season, had a .308 OBP. His career OBP is .358. Freel is no superstar but he's shown over his career he can be an at least serviceable leadoff man.
I agree we have plenty of candidates. However, I believe Freel will not land the CF job because his OBP was so poor last year. Hopper and Patterson (at least from Spring Training) fit the need better. Freel can be the outfield utility guy...unless he's traded early.
Patterson may very well cool off. I just think that if the guy can keep his OBP high then he should be the leadoff guy on Opening Day and let Bruce start the year in Louisville.
If I'm a Reds fan I could live with Patterson being the OD starting CF and batting leadoff. First off, Patterson is outstanding defensively and the Reds need that in their OF badly. He's good enough and fast enough that he could leave Dunn and Griffey needing to cover less ground defensively. That is a very good thing. He is an outstanding base stealer, which the Reds could really use. Fact is, Patterson was 4th last year in SB's in the AL with 37 and 3rd in 2006 with 45. He did this despite playing in just 135 games in 2006 and 132 in 2007. He is just 28 years old and is more than capable of finding the plate discipline that he would need to be an effective leadoff hitter. He is doing quite well this spring and that is very significant. Usually Patterson is a horrible hitter in ST and has been every season but one. The one time he had a good spring was when he had his best year in 2004 and that year he was pretty good. I would also point out he has a little bit of power as well, he slugged .499 in the minors. Many of his shortcomings I believe come from the fact the Cubs brought him up before he was ready and didn't develop him properly. The talent and potential is absolutely still there. He was looked at in 99-00 as having the same kind of potential as Jay Bruce has now. The Reds might catch lightning in a bottle here. I don't believe the Reds are looking at him long term but if he does well then the Reds have solved, at least partially, the upcoming OF depth problem for the Reds.
Random Comments from reading the thread to this point.....
The "deadline" for making (or avoiding if you are the club) SuperTwo status in arbitration generally falls btween the middle and end of June for guys coming up for the first time and never going back down over the rest of the year and the two following seasons (i.e. assuming Jay Bruce makes it to Cincy this year, he figures to either be or not be a SuperTwo at the end of the 2010 season.) I'll be surprised if it takes him two and half months to get to Cincy unless he is injured or the club acquires another veteran outfielder.
Patterson is a major upgrade over Freel or Hopper in the field. Going by Freel's stats the last two years, he has no more business in the lead off spot than Patterson if one went by his past stats. On the short sample of last year, Hopper is head and shoulders above them both as a lead off man.
I agree, if Jr and Dunn are both gone after this season, who will be in the OF for the Reds in 2009? I see this as reason to get Bruce back up earlier instead of later.
The list of 28 year olds that have suddenly acquired on base skills is likely very short but I don't have that list, it's just a guess. I like defense and I like good base stealers but I don't like leading off games with somebody who rarely gets on base (or in Baker's case 2 guys). Maybe he has figured it out but his history and baseball history is not on his side. I would much rather have his and the at bats of those like him, go to players that are more productive and are still developing.
More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can't wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that's not only better, but also more directly involves me.
Hear Hear! I can't trust me some Dusty, but I'm willing to give the SCOUTS who said Patterson has finally "got it" and changed his approach at the plate, and give the guy a chance. If he actually learns to take a pitch, bunts, and has given up on his "power potential" that everyone pinned him with, MAYBE, just MAYBE he can get his OBP over .333 for an extended period of time.
The fact that he's PLATOONING with Hopper/Freel gives me at least some inclination to not jump off a bridge. I think he'll be on a short leash though, although I think the best case scenario is that Bruce stays in AAA until June, helping him stay away from "Super 2" status.
That being said, putting a Castro or a Gonzalez at #2 totally defeats any potential we might get out of anything resembling an actual lead-off hitter. I'd much rather put Dunn at #2 than just about anyone. Keppinger would be the ideal #2 but he's not getting 300 PA's. Joey Votto would be MY ideal #2, he's young, fast, has some OBP.
The fact that OBP is totally lost on Baker kills me. Especially since he doesn't want his POWER guys to get on base, via a walk, he wants them to "knock guys in". It's going to be REALLY hard to do that when HIS ideal lineup is CF, SS and then Brandon Phillips (who Baker's already pimped at batting 3rd "eventually", meaning obviously when KGJ is gone). Not going to be many guys on base to knock in.
Dunn and EE are the best guys to drive guys in, and they'll be lucky to have anyone on base in front of them, and they won't be batting until the 2nd inning a lot of times, and have no protection behind them.
MADDENING!!
PEACE
-BLEEDS
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
To quote and old dead guy, this is much ado about nothing. It is mid March. The birds are just beginning to reappear after a long winter and we baseball fans are looking at our still unestablished team and thinking its impossible.
First, Patterson may not be that bad in the leaoff spot. I want to wait and see.
Second, just because Dusty doesn't place the same emphasis on OBP than some of the fans does not make him a dope. He is a successful major league baseball manager while we reflect our opinions from other jobs and home.
Third, since the roster is not set, it is highly difficult to complain about a still non-existant starting line-up. Let us be patient.
Lastly, there is a bright future for the Reds, something we have not had in some time and I think it is important not to jump to early conclusions. Just look at the ideas thrown out on this board every day - Baker is going to ruin the arms of our young pitchers, Baker will play guys who have expereince but are well under major league quality just because he likes it that way, WK has no baseball sense and he has no idea what the team needs, the Reds need to make a major trade to fix a major problem - insert numerous perceived problems, the Reds would be foolish to trade away any of the youth because they are going to be Roy Hobbs all over again - we all know they will though, etc.
I think it would be great for us if we took a deep breath, sat back in our easy chair, thanked God that a real sport is getting ready to begin again and watch our beloved Reds.
But he won't. He has 22 ABs this spring with a .455 OBP. He has over 3000 in his major league career with a .298 OBP. I'm going to trust the latter. His defense is fine, he's got speed, if he had OBP he'd be fine in CF. But he doesn't.
Ryan Freel posted an OBP over .360 every year from 2004 to 2006, with at least 350 ABs in every season. Corey Patterson has never posted an OBP over .330.
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