Reds have 3 ranked in Top 100

[mdccclxix]

I think Mesoraco is still somewhat of an ace in the hole for the Reds long term as well. If he plays out 2013 and 2014 behind, or with, Hannigan, he'll be entering his prime as an affordable offensive threat at a premium position. This slow progress approach isn't hurting the Reds.

[Salukifan2]

Does anyone else think the Pirates will completely mismanage their youth and end up just being the same old pirates?

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

Luckily for the Cards, when all their young talent is supposed to hit the market and be out of their price range they are going to get a new TV deal which could be, from what ive heard, 4 times the size of their current one.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a TV deal for them reach the 80-100 million range. Their current TV deal is actually pitiful, like the Braves TV contract.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

Does anyone else think the Pirates will completely mismanage their youth and end up just being the same old pirates?

I'm optimistic for them.

[Salukifan2]

Oh i know its pitiful. Correct me if im wrong but isn't it only like 10 mil a year?

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

Oh i know its pitiful. Correct me if im wrong but isn't it only like 10 mil a year?

I've heard it's around 14-20 million. I think Bill Dewitt was high when he signed that deal. Even at the time he signed it, it wasn't a great deal considering the TV ratings and the media market St. Louis is.

[Salukifan2]

Im pretty sure the cardinals local rankings are in the top 5 in the league, but their regional ratings aren't very good

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

Im pretty sure the cardinals local rankings are in the top 5 in the league, but their regional ratings aren't very good

It's still ranked as the 21st media market, which is larger than Nashville and San Diego.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

So I looked over the Reds roster, which is rock solid through 2015, btw. Then I looked over the minors, and it really isn't all that great on the offensive side of the ball, especially. After Hamilton (who still has some experience to gain), there won't be a meaningful addition to the roster for 2-3-4 years (although I do like some role players like Fellhauer, Lutz and H. Rodriguez).

Cingrani and Corcino are arriving near enough to Arroyo, Latos, and Bailey's situations to help out, but after that it's another 2-3-4 years before we will have much reinforcements.

But, that's why they play the games and that's why they draft. 2013-2015 IS the time to go all in, and the Reds have. Their roster is such that it can even withstand a few major injuries, as we saw last year. It will be a comfort when the tide rolls back into the upper minors by 2014-15, though. 2016 and beyond is setup nicely as well, and there will be time to find those top flight players until then to fill in the starting lineup. Lastly, of course, there are players that right now have not emerged, but probably will. For now, the Reds are stacked where it counts in Cincinnati and they are busy reloading where it matters a little less (except to those mavens in Dayton) in the minors.

Agreed, especially with the last paragraph. Now through 2015 is THE window.

After that (if not sooner), the Cubs and Cardinals will likely be back in full force. The Brewers and Pirates may be. And the Reds will likely go through a period of rebuilding that will position them to compete again in the 2018-2020 range, when guys like Stephenson, Winker, Travieso, et al (as well as others who aren't even in the organization yet) are hopefully hitting their primes.

Of course, it is possible the Reds can still be a contending team in the 2016-2017 time period. But they'll have to shell out a LOT of dough to keep several of the guys like Latos, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman and possibly Cozart/Frazier/Mesoraco in order to make sure that happens. And don't forget, they'll already be paying $52MM per year just for Votto, Phillips and Bruce, the latter of which will be hitting FA in 2017 (and the former two who will be well on the wrong side of 30/past their primes).

As an aside (and back on thread topic), I wouldn't be shocked if Walt retires after "the window" - sometime around 2015/2016, mainly because he doesn't have the energy or desire to go through another rebuilding effort. He is the GM to take a team to the next (championship) level, not necessarily the right guy to spearhead a total overhaul/rebuilding effort.

[Kc61]

I think the Reds did fine having three players in the top one hundred. The Reds system has been depleted via trades and promotions in recent years and it's hard to replenish quickly. Particularly since the ballclub is now winning and it's draft position is lower.

Right now, IMO, the Reds have one very exciting prospect in Hamilton, but I don't see any sure things on the farm. Stephenson is just too junior at this point to count on.

I think the Reds got a good benefit with the success of Cingrani, who has performed like a top prospect. Don't believe this much success was expected of him.

We're in a new era now. Reds won't be drafting that high, hopefully, so I don't expect many more Jay Bruces in the near future. But if they keep adding to the system, guys, like a Cingrani, will emerge.

As for Jocketty, I'm not sure his Cards experience is relevant. The Reds still need the draft very much, they are still not a top revenue team apparently, so whether the Cards focused sufficiently on the draft is besides the point. The Reds farm guys must keep churning out those prospects as best they can. It's key for a club like the Reds, even though with lower draft position it's not easy.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

What a flagrantly inaccurate post.

You're right. My math was way off (though flagrant is more than a little hyperbolic).

Quick question: what other GM has been better than Jocketty in drafting All-Stars over the past 20 years or so?

Another way to tackle this:

If Jocketty were indeed a poor drafter, it should show up in his players inabilities to get to the major leagues, or, in the case of poor teams, perform poorly once they get there.

This past season, Jocketty-acquired draftees and minor league, post-draft free agent signees had a WAR of 17.9 for the Cardinals. (Five years later, btw, he's still "responsible" for almost half the St. Louis WAR from last season.) I'll add other picks he made that are currently playing for other teams (Daric Barton, Colby Rasmus, Pujols, Adam Kennedy) and his Cincinnati first-round picks as well (ie., Leake, Grandal, Alonso). I also include Aroldis Chapman, as he was a free agent. That's another 16.0 WAR. To round out the team with 25 players, we'll add Brad Boxberger's -0.1 WAR last season in San Diego.

That's a 25-man roster of players drafted/ developed under Jocketty with a WAR of 33.8.

I suspect few other GMs will come close to that. He's certainly in the top five.

(Fwiw, the entire Red team had a WAR of 48.3 last season.)

In short, Jocketty's tenure as a GM has shown an ability to draft well, trade well, and sign intelligently. He's a true triple threat GM and the Reds are lucky to have him. Jocketty is pretty much universally held as an upper echelon GM. His three Executive of the Year trophies corroborate that.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

You're right. My math was way off (though flagrant is more than a little hyperbolic).

Quick question: what other GM has been better than Jocketty in drafting All-Stars over the past 20 years or so?

Another way to tackle this:

If Jocketty were indeed a poor drafter, it should show up in his players inabilities to get to the major leagues, or, in the case of poor teams, perform poorly once they get there.

This past season, Jocketty-acquired draftees and minor league, post-draft free agent signees had a WAR of 17.9 for the Cardinals. (Five years later, btw, he's still "responsible" for almost half the St. Louis WAR from last season.) I'll add other picks he made that are currently playing for other teams (Daric Barton, Colby Rasmus, Pujols, Adam Kennedy) and his Cincinnati first-round picks as well (ie., Leake, Grandal, Alonso). I also include Aroldis Chapman, as he was a free agent. That's another 16.0 WAR. To round out the team with 25 players, we'll add Brad Boxberger's -0.1 WAR last season in San Diego.

That's a 25-man roster of players drafted/ developed under Jocketty with a WAR of 33.8.

I suspect few other GMs will come close to that. He's certainly in the top five.

(Fwiw, the entire Red team had a WAR of 48.3 last season.)

In short, Jocketty's tenure as a GM has shown an ability to draft well, trade well, and sign intelligently. He's a true triple threat GM and the Reds are lucky to have him. Jocketty is pretty much universally held as an upper echelon GM. His three Executive of the Year trophies corroborate that.

Brian Cashman

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by 757690

.

Draft position means everything. Seriously, just look at the results of the first 15 players drafted vs the results of the second 15 players drafted in the first round every year. Don't have time to look up the exact numbers right now, but if you do, you'll be amazed at the difference.
.

That's a good point.
Also, with the new slotted draft system in place now, I expect the difference in the future to be even greater. The Yankees had low draft position but could count on talented players falling to them due to signablity concerns. Teams like NYY and Texas were unrestrained in their foreign talent acquision too.
I think we are going to see a greater impact of draft creating parity the way it was intended to.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

As he did in stl. Once again. Parallels. One day johnny cueto and latos are gonna cost close to 20mil a piece. Alot of these reds are.gonna get real expensive. Especially when you really want to sign someone but you cant because youre paying 38 yr old votto 26 mil per.

Jocketty can learn from his time in st louis and make sure he keeps a strong organizational base or he can start signing aging and underperforming players, hoping they have a rennaissance, like he started doing after '05.

Hoping he doesnt do the latter twice is something reds fans should agree with

That's a good point, but no team can stay good forever. Especially with the new slotted draft system. I don't have the numbers but if you look at entire draft classes for a given year, not many of them eventually become good starters. When a team starts drafting at the end of the first round, it's pretty difficult to be in the top farm system in baseball.

I also think the Reds have been great under Buckley/Jocketty at taking risks.
2 of our best prospects now.. Hamilton and Cingranni were not as well thought of by the rest of baseball at the time of the draft. Great scouting by the Reds. Now obviously, not all picks like this are going to work out, but the Reds have done an incredible job of grabbing the best available player in the draft.

[Pony Boy]

Another reason that the Reds' system isnt ranked real high right now is because a lot of our minor league talent is in the lower levels of the system. The Reds have opted for HS talent with their high picks in recent drafts and those players take a while to climb the rankings. Stephenson, Travieso, Winker, etc. were all picked with long ETAs in mind.

Contrast this with a few years ago when the Reds were taking college players routinely in the first round (Leake, Alonso, Grandal). All of those players made it to the majors very quickly and it made the system as a whole look good when we had our first rounders in the upper minor leagues. The Reds could take a couple of college players early in the next draft and quickly resupply the upper levels of the system.