Chapman story on ESPN - MLB front page...

[mth123]

Originally Posted by M2

You'll never do anything brilliant if you don't try something crazy. Chapman as a starter is a take-over-the-world move.

I think so too and I'm all for trying it. But the general opinion that there is no risk and that its a slam dunk to be an upgrade are not recognizing all the possibilities IMO. I still think ability to throw the slider for a strike consistently is the key. He hasn't had to do that as a reliever (as a matter of fact throwing it out of the zone has been a key weapon for him) and we can't really tell from his peripherals in the pen how they'll come out as a starter.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Cooper

This move scares me in a big way - you have a known value - a guy who lead the league in win shares (i know that win shares are not thought of in the same vein as the blessed WAR, but Bill James came up with them and i tend to think the Chapman's value in the bullpen is higher than his WAR gives off).

That's the best argument I've read for keeping him in the pen. However, I still disagree. The Reds have their bullpen situation pretty well in hand. The team has multiple closer options (count me among those who think J.J. Hoover can be a plus closer). So I'm not worried about any significant drag this shift puts on the bullpen.

And Chapman's awesomeness in the pen (plus the fact that the Reds' brass, especially Price, has always viewed him as starter material) hopefully tips the hand on his awesomeness in the rotation. In other words, the lesson from Chapman's awesome performance as a closer might be that he's just awesome.

And if he's got a timebomb in his arm, I don't think starting or relieving is going to protect him. Hard-throwing closers blow their arms out all the time. In fact it's generally a much shorter career track than SP. No matter what he does, he's going to be required to throw a baseball super fast.

[AtomicDumpling]

Starting will be less stressful on his arm. He will get at least 4 full days off to rest and recuperate between every start, sometimes more due to team off days. As a closer he often has to pitch 2, 3, 4 days in a row where his arm has no time to recuperate.

Honestly, I am not worried about batters being able to hit Chapman. The only thing I worry about with Chapman's performance is his control. He has had episodes where he simply could not throw strikes. If hitters learn to force Chapman to throw strikes it could be a real problem -- and that is true if he is a starter or a reliever. Watching him throw last year I was struck by how often batters would swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, pitches they had no chance of hitting. The best way to beat Chapman is don't swing the bat and let him beat himself. I think that is exactly what hitters will do once word gets around. Thankfully, Chapman is talented enough and athletic enough and smart enough that he will be able to make some adjustments to tighten up his control and command to throw strikes.

[Pony Boy]

If there is even a 10% chance that Chapman is the Latin Randy Johnson, you have to try.

All of my baseball watching life I have wanted for the Reds to have a dominant HOF-type starting pitcher. I have never seen it. I really, really want to. And the Randy Johnson comp (not that I buy it) is exciting. Johnson, from the mid-90s to the mid-2000s was the most dominant pitcher that I have seen in my lifetime.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Pony Boy

If there is even a 10% chance that Chapman is the Latin Randy Johnson, you have to try.

All of my baseball watching life I have wanted for the Reds to have a dominant HOF-type starting pitcher. I have never seen it. I really, really want to. And the Randy Johnson comp (not that I buy it) is exciting. Johnson, from the mid-90s to the mid-2000s was the most dominant pitcher that I have seen in my lifetime.

Had he not just ravaged his elbow, that was Jose Rijo.

Oh man what could have been...

[mth123]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

Starting will be less stressful on his arm. He will get at least 4 full days off to rest and recuperate between every start, sometimes more due to team off days. As a closer he often has to pitch 2, 3, 4 days in a row where his arm has no time to recuperate.

Honestly, I am not worried about batters being able to hit Chapman. The only thing I worry about with Chapman's performance is his control. He has had episodes where he simply could not throw strikes. If hitters learn to force Chapman to throw strikes it could be a real problem -- and that is true if he is a starter or a reliever. Watching him throw last year I was struck by how often batters would swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, pitches they had no chance of hitting. The best way to beat Chapman is don't swing the bat and let him beat himself.

Three cracks at him per game will take away that advantage IMO. I just don't see hitters chasing so much as they see him multiple times per game.

I think he can throw his fastball for strikes. I'm just not so sure about his Slider. As a reliever, I think he can get away with that big break out of the zone. Guys chase when they see him once or twice per year. I'd guess most guys wil get more looks at him in one start than they did in an entire season as a closer.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Pony Boy

If there is even a 10% chance that Chapman is the Latin Randy Johnson, you have to try.

All of my baseball watching life I have wanted for the Reds to have a dominant HOF-type starting pitcher. I have never seen it. I really, really want to. And the Randy Johnson comp (not that I buy it) is exciting. Johnson, from the mid-90s to the mid-2000s was the most dominant pitcher that I have seen in my lifetime.

Randy Johnson in his prime was a good comparison for Aroldis Chapman. Both are tall lefties who rely on a fastball/slider mix. Both have blazing fastballs and wicked sliders and nothing else. With that mix it is not mandatory to have a third pitch. Having two unhittable pitches is better than having three or four hittable pitches.

I am not saying Chapman is as good as Randy Johnson, but it is an apt comparison to their styles of pitching.

Late in his career after his fastball had declined to the low-mid 90s, Randy Johnson did develop a sinker and a changeup, but even then he was still mostly fastball/slider.

[SunDeck]

Best case scenario, years from now we are referring to the move of Chapman to the rotation like we do the move that took Rose from left to third.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

Honestly, I am not worried about batters being able to hit Chapman. The only thing I worry about with Chapman's performance is his control. He has had episodes where he simply could not throw strikes. If hitters learn to force Chapman to throw strikes it could be a real problem -- and that is true if he is a starter or a reliever. Watching him throw last year I was struck by how often batters would swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, pitches they had no chance of hitting. The best way to beat Chapman is don't swing the bat and let him beat himself. I think that is exactly what hitters will do once word gets around. Thankfully, Chapman is talented enough and athletic enough and smart enough that he will be able to make some adjustments to tighten up his control and command to throw strikes.

I really don't think this is the case anymore. He threw outside the zone a lot just because Hanigan called for it. Not saying he doesn't occasionally lose it, but his command was pretty sharp most of last year.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Congrats!

Thanks, MikeThierry. 4,000 posts is a lot -- at least where I come from. I'd just like to say I couldn't have gotten here without the help of all of you... I'd also like to thank Boss and GIK and the mods... and my wife for not wringing my neck when I'm up late posting my umpteenth comment on a thread about signing a minor league catcher...

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by malcontent

This is my concern as well. Hitters won't be geared up as much as when they're trailing in the ninth, and won't be chasing stuff out of the zone as much.

Instead, they'll be far more patient and those pitch counts are going to be high by the fifth inning. I just don't see a successful transition happening.

Then of course, you're limiting the "Chapman effect" to once every five games.

Of course, the flip side is that he may face more guys who aren't completely on their toes. While you say they won't be geared up as much and therefore won't chase as much, I'd suggest it could go the other way. Hitters aren't going to be quite as focused as they are when they face him now and are more likely to give away pitches/ at bats.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think so too and I'm all for trying it. But the general opinion that there is no risk and that its a slam dunk to be an upgrade are not recognizing all the possibilities IMO. I still think ability to throw the slider for a strike consistently is the key. He hasn't had to do that as a reliever (as a matter of fact throwing it out of the zone has been a key weapon for him) and we can't really tell from his peripherals in the pen how they'll come out as a starter.

This sounds like a bit of a strawman to me. I'm not sure who on this board has suggested that there's absolutely zero added risk to having him start or suggested that it's a slam dunk to be an upgrade.

Most of us who are touting the upside of starting are considering (of have considered) the downside possibilities as well. We just think that when you do the risk/reward math, the conclusion is pretty obvious.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

This sounds like a bit of a strawman to me. I'm not sure who on this board has suggested that there's absolutely zero added risk to having him start or suggested that it's a slam dunk to be an upgrade.

Most of us who are touting the upside of starting are considering (of have considered) the downside possibilities as well. We just think that when you do the risk/reward math, the conclusion is pretty obvious.

Posts 3, 5 and 22 in this very thread beg to differ. Plenty of posts in other threads like this one saying the same. I recall debating for several pages with one particular poster whose position was that Chapman to the rotation was nearly a sure thing.

The argument I keep hearing is that there isn't risk because he can always be moved back to the pen. Of course if he stinks for half a season while we're trying him out, it hurts the team's chances at winning the division. That's a bigger risk than any implications for Chapman's long term role IMO.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I really don't think this is the case anymore. He threw outside the zone a lot just because Hanigan called for it. Not saying he doesn't occasionally lose it, but his command was pretty sharp most of last year.

I agree that he was throwing those balls outside the strike zone on purpose. If the batter is willing to swing at a ball up and out of the strike zone then by all means don't throw him a strike. That is what happened a lot last year and it was smart of him to pitch that way. His control was plenty good last year, which is great news.

The point I was making though, is that IF something is going to derail Chapman as a starting pitcher (barring injury) it will be his control. I am confident that hitters are not going to punish him with their bats. He will give up some hits of course, but he will miss bats at a high rate and he won't give up a ton of hits. If he gets blown up it will be because he walked the bases loaded and then gave up a hit, not because hitters were lining the ball all over the field.

Chapman has had problems in the past with his control, and I think it is more likely for that to recur than for hitters to figure him out and start hitting the ball hard off him. I don't think either will happen. I think he will succeed as a starting pitcher. He will develop a good third pitch. He will go through some ups and downs like all young pitchers do. He may not be a superstar, but he will be very good. He doesn't have to turn into the second coming of Randy Johnson for this move to be a success.

[Tommyjohn25]

Personally, I don't get the argument that seeing him more is going to suddenly change the fact that he is extremely hard to hit. It's not like he's gotten by on smoke and mirrors while in the pen. Plus he had VERY good command for 95% of the entire 2012 season. He is just better than almost everyone else in the league. IMO, it's that simple.