Sabermetrics

[joshua]

If you really don't know much and want a fun and easy read, I'd suggest reading Moneyball first if you haven't already read it. It gives you a good grasp of the basics (OBP, WHIP) while also showing you a bit if the battle between old school baseball guys and a new way of thinking. Almost everything in the book is obsolete in the sense that every team is using those stats in scouting, so they aren't as advantageous (is that even a word?) as they used to be. But its successful in giving you an idea of how advanced stats are used in picking diamonds from the rough and assessing player value differently.

Those who suggested Baseball Between the Numbers are right on. It will change the way you think about the game and does so in ways that keep you interested. Before I read it, I understood stats a bit but never really bought into how valuable advanced metrics could be. After reading the chapter on Bonds vs Ruth, it flipped a switch in the baseball cortex of my brain and made me realize how this stuff could meaningfully break down the game. For me, I was always interested in baseball history and arguing about players from different eras...knowing that you can create a baseline to compare players from a historical standpoint is what completely reeled me in.

[joshua]

Originally Posted by dfs

I think the biggest misunderstanding about numbers w/respect to baseball is the two fold uses. Are you trying to explain what happened or are you trying to predict how valuable a player will likely be in the future. There a big chasm between those two uses.

That's a place to start. Oh, and good for you for trying to learn something.

This is very very true. Even advanced proprietary formulas like PETCOTA aren't much better at predicting a team's upcoming season as some of the more simple formulas.

Bill James projects Jay Bruce hitting .263/.342 /.518. Don't think of this as a hard prediction, but something more like the average performance Jay Bruce would have if the season was played a thousand times.

[dougdirt]

For what it is worth, the "Bill James projections" are the worst of any of the major projection systems over the years. I also don't believe that Bill James has much to do with them, but that his name is attached to them because he runs them in his book.

[joshua]

I agree, was just using it as an example. It also seems that James steers a little further away from baseball every year. It won't be long until he's at a sabre event telling a bunch of baseball nerds they have no lives, like that SNL skit of Shatner at the Star Trek convention.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

For what it is worth, the "Bill James projections" are the worst of any of the major projection systems over the years. I also don't believe that Bill James has much to do with them, but that his name is attached to them because he runs them in his book.

They're run by STATS INC which is John Dewanes company, James and him do have a site/book but Dewan does the stats and James writes articles

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by joshua

I agree, was just using it as an example. It also seems that James steers a little further away from baseball every year. It won't be long until he's at a sabre event telling a bunch of baseball nerds they have no lives, like that SNL skit of Shatner at the Star Trek convention.

You must have missed his last abstracts rant, because that was kinda the vein if it

And that was 1989

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Ugh. Guess I'm gonna have to move in to the present and catch up on on the new stats. I'm old school and have always liked it that way. Never saw why the new stats added much.

But I guess I'll check it out this season.

I used to be like that but the new stats add a whole new dimension to baseball. It doesn't ruin it for me but only enhances it. It gives you a different viewpoint as to what might be valuable in a player. To me, for example, the defensive stats completely blow away the old standard fielding and error rate. The new stats add a whole lot in that regard.

[MikeThierry]

Pretty interesting article about how John Mozeliak uses Bill James book as a guide. I know there's no love for the Cardinals here but it's at least interesting to see how one GM uses advanced metrics in today's game:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...e-sabermetrics

[mth123]

Here is a good article from Fangraphs about WAR. I've never been a huge fan of WAR because to me its the most easily mis-used stat of the bunch. It's not useless, but its not the end of discussion (as frequently presented on this site) either.

I thought this was a pretty good read.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...r-is-good-for/