Keith Law Reds Top 10

[New Fever]

www.espn.com/mlb/



1. Billy Hamilton, CF (30)



2. R. Stephenson, RHP (48)



3. Daniel Corcino, RHP (72)



4. Tony Cingrani, LHP (98)



5. Jesse Winker, RF



6. Nick Travieso, RHP



7. Jonathan Reynoso, CF



8. Ismael Guillon, LHP



9. Tanner Rahier, 3B



10. Daniel Langfield, RHP

[Benihana]

Now that's more like it. Much better than Mayo's list, anyway.

Seems like BA is not the only one so high on Reynoso.

[Superdude]

Reynoso is getting some serious love. I'm intrigued

[mdccclxix]

Maybe they talked to the same people.

[Helms1]

I just have to ask this group what are the odds of the 5 pitchers listed making significant contributions to the Reds as a starter or reliever? Now to me that is the most important question to be asked about the farm system, and you guys have always impressed me with the most knowledge about the subject at hand as any group on these boards after 3 years of reading.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Helms1

I just have to ask this group what are the odds of the 5 pitchers listed making significant contributions to the Reds as a starter or reliever? Now to me that is the most important question to be asked about the farm system, and you guys have always impressed me with the most knowledge about the subject at hand as any group on these boards after 3 years of reading.

I think the only three I'd count on at the moment having a big league impact are Stephenson, Cingrani and Corcino. Stephenson is the best pitching prospect in the system, and Cingrani and Corcino are sufficiently close to the majors that it is a safe bet they will have big league careers (Cingrani has already started his).

After that, it's anyone's guess as to who makes it to the show- especially as far as pitchers are concerned. Lotzkar probably has the talent, but durability is a huge issue. Travieso is still at least five years away, and therefore has his own questions despite the talent. No one else seems to have slam dunk major league talent at this point that's within shooting distance. Maybe someone like Guillon or Langfield step into that category with a breakout performance this year.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I think the only three I'd count on at the moment having a big league impact are Stephenson, Cingrani and Corcino. Stephenson is the best pitching prospect in the system, and Cingrani and Corcino are sufficiently close to the majors that it is a safe bet the

Honestly, I wouldn't even count Stephenson. He's just too far away. Three years is a LONG time in the lifespan of a teenage pitching prospect. I certainly think he has the talent to be a fantastic major leaguer, but a lot can happen in three years. Just ask guys like Ty Howington and Chris Gruler.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Honestly, I wouldn't even count Stephenson. He's just too far away. Three years is a LONG time in the lifespan of a teenage pitching prospect. I certainly think he has the talent to be a fantastic major leaguer, but a lot can happen in three years. Just ask guys like Ty Howington and Chris Gruler.

Stephenson probably isn't three years away. He also isn't really comparable to a guy like Gruler, who never even had a chance by the time he was the age that Stephenson was. Howington really isn't comparable either. Same age, in Dayton, he walked 86 and struck out 119 in 141.2 innings. He took a step forward the next year, but poor control still held him back. Obviously, we can't say which direction Stephenson will go moving forward, but neither of those guys are really too comparable to him.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Stephenson probably isn't three years away. He also isn't really comparable to a guy like Gruler, who never even had a chance by the time he was the age that Stephenson was. Howington really isn't comparable either. Same age, in Dayton, he walked 86 and struck out 119 in 141.2 innings. He took a step forward the next year, but poor control still held him back. Obviously, we can't say which direction Stephenson will go moving forward, but neither of those guys are really too comparable to him.

I was referring more to the fact that they got injured rather than their statistical performances.

As far as Stephenson being less than three years away, I hope you are wrong. I don't want to see the Reds rush him through the system like they did Howington. I would prefer to see him spend a full year at each stop remaining on the minor league ladder (A/A+, AA, and AAA) before arriving in the majors to stay in 2016.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I was referring more to the fact that they got injured rather than their statistical performances.

As far as Stephenson being less than three years away, I hope you are wrong. I don't want to see the Reds rush him through the system like they did Howington. I would prefer to see him spend a full year at each stop remaining on the minor league ladder (A/A+, AA, and AAA) before arriving in the majors to stay in 2016.

That typically doesn't happen unless he hits some struggles along the way.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I was referring more to the fact that they got injured rather than their statistical performances.

As far as Stephenson being less than three years away, I hope you are wrong. I don't want to see the Reds rush him through the system like they did Howington. I would prefer to see him spend a full year at each stop remaining on the minor league ladder (A/A+, AA, and AAA) before arriving in the majors to stay in 2016.

I don't think a 2015 debut would be rushing Robert Stephenson, especially given the fact that several HS pitchers who were drafted in the same round as he was have already made their big league debuts (Bundy, Bauer, etc.) and others (Fernandez, et al) are playing at higher levels than Stephenson is.

If anything, the Reds have been overly conservative with Stephenson and Travieso, as there aren't many other examples of other first round HS pitchers beginning their second season in Rookie Ball.

I've said it before, but it's worth mentioning here again, that 2011 first round will go down as one of, if not the best round of pitching talent in draft history. Stephenson is an uber prospect, and he's arguably not even one of the five best pitchers taken in that round!

[M2]

What Stephenson needs right now is to start building his innings load. He totaled 65 IP last season and it's probably going to take him three full years to build up to being able to handle a major league workload. Wouldn't shock me if the Reds held him back in extended ST for April just to keep him from logging too many innings in 2013. Given the SP depth in the majors, and Cingrani and Corcino above him on the ladder, there's no reason to rush Stephenson.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

What Stephenson needs right now is to start building his innings load. He totaled 65 IP last season and it's probably going to take him three full years to build up to being able to handle a major league workload. Wouldn't shock me if the Reds held him back in extended ST for April just to keep him from logging too many innings in 2013. Given the SP depth in the majors, and Cingrani and Corcino above him on the ladder, there's no reason to rush Stephenson.

He threw 65 innings that counted in games, but he threw during extended spring training as well. The Reds know how many innings there were and how many he will be given this year, assuming health. I can't see him starting out there year anywhere but Dayton unless there is some injury. They are going to protect his innings, but I can't see it happening by just shelving him to start the season.

[Helms1]

Hey, thanks gentlemen.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He threw 65 innings that counted in games, but he threw during extended spring training as well. The Reds know how many innings there were and how many he will be given this year, assuming health. I can't see him starting out there year anywhere but Dayton unless there is some injury. They are going to protect his innings, but I can't see it happening by just shelving him to start the season.

It all depends on how you account for extended ST innings. I'm pretty sure teams don't count them 1:1 with live game innings.

Obviously they have an innings target. I'm kind of hoping that target is well short of the ~140 IP that he'd get in a full A-ball season. If it's <120 IP, then he's either a 4 IP starter, which I'm not sure allows him to work enough on consistency with his pitches, or he needs to keep his starts totals in the low 20s (in which case he'll need to miss some starts).

However they manage his IP cap, the main focus should be on making sure that power arm of his stays intact. In the grand scheme of his career, no one cares about his exploits in Dayton.