The Intangible Effect of Drew Stubbs

[SweetLou1990]

I'm not worried about Stubbs at all - he is gone.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by JB12

Although this makes complete sense (and I agree with you), many pitchers can't grasp this and apply it during the game setting. I've seen pitchers groove through the first half of a game, give up a bloop single (with none or 1 out) and let that spiral into a rough inning. I think this has to do mostly with the pitcher's psyche. Giving up a bloop hit off the hands on an otherwise great pitch is frustrating.

Totally agreed. Latos had problems with that last season, and it's been a constant problem for Homer over the years. One bloop, one infield single, and boom, three run homer. While on the other hand, a guy like Johnny Cueto seemingly improves in these situations (I don't have any evidence to prove this, just an observation from watching).

[hebroncougar]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

Totally agreed. Latos had problems with that last season, and it's been a constant problem for Homer over the years. One bloop, one infield single, and boom, three run homer. While on the other hand, a guy like Johnny Cueto seemingly improves in these situations (I don't have any evidence to prove this, just an observation from watching).

Probably has something to do with ground ball tendencies.

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[SweetLou1990]

Among all NL qualifying Center Fielders, Stubb as ranked 3rd last in Range Factor in 2012

Range Factor = (Put-outs+assists/innings). I think this could be telling that his speed,while fast , didn't always translate into outs.

Meanwhile , Jay B ranked 7 out of 17 RF's in the same category, so despiute not having top speed, outs can be had.

[tedies]

Originally Posted by SweetLou1990

I'm not worried about Stubbs at all - he is gone.

Say it out loud and try not to have a huge smile on your face

[Brisco]

This thread seems to have side tracked to a debate on the overall value of Stubbs or Stubbs v. Choo. I am very happy to have Choo on the team this year.

A few things that I believe are true that many may disagree with:

1. Most players believe their eyes more than the statistics. Even today, I believe most reject sabrmetrics as the best method to evaluate a player.
2. Except in blowouts, pitchers focus much more on getting outs and than on how many runs were or were not scored by their team.
3. If my eyes told me I had a great CF behind me (and a great SS/2B combo), I would pitch much more aggressively to all but a handful of true power hitters.

Again, I am in no way saying that the Reds are a better team with Stubbs than Choo.

I am merely saying that, even if Choo and/or Bruce actually put up equal (or better) defensive statistics than Stubbs did last year, the Reds overall ability to prevent runs may suffer based on how this would affect the confidence/aggressiveness of our pitchers.

Other than Arroyo, all of our starters are expected to be equal to or better than last year (leavign Chapman out of the equation). Other than the change in CF, the defense will be the same or even slightly better depending on how Frazier pans out with the glove. If Baileys, Cuetos and Latos' individual K rates are down and walk rates are up (or really, their DiPs overall are suffering)after a few months into the season, I will believe that my above point will have been a contributing factor.

[Brisco]

Originally Posted by SweetLou1990

Among all NL qualifying Center Fielders, Stubb as ranked 3rd last in Range Factor in 2012

Range Factor = (Put-outs+assists/innings). I think this could be telling that his speed,while fast , didn't always translate into outs.

Meanwhile , Jay B ranked 7 out of 17 RF's in the same category, so despiute not having top speed, outs can be had.

One of the biggest problems with using this defensive statistic is that it totally ignores a players ability to turn would be extra base hits into singles... a skill that I (anecdotally) believe Stubbs was one of if not the best in the league at.

Stubbs was excellent at keeping the ball in front of him... so good that it became his weakness on those bloop singles.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by SweetLou1990

Among all NL qualifying Center Fielders, Stubb as ranked 3rd last in Range Factor in 2012

Range Factor = (Put-outs+assists/innings). I think this could be telling that his speed,while fast , didn't always translate into outs.

Meanwhile , Jay B ranked 7 out of 17 RF's in the same category, so despiute not having top speed, outs can be had.

Yet in Fangraphs UZR/150, Stubbs was 3rd in all of major league centerfielders, behind only Bourn and Span.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by M2

The Intagible Stubbs Effect Theory would hold more water if the Reds had a quality pitching staff during most of his time with the club. With the exception of 2012, it was average-to-poor.

Meanwhile, we know the misfiring at the top of the lineup helped make the Reds the most inefficient offense in baseball last season. In general a player's tangibles outweigh his intangibles.

Constipated was my best analogy. This year, Choo should be the Metamucil the lineup needed.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by M2

The Intagible Stubbs Effect Theory would hold more water if the Reds had a quality pitching staff during most of his time with the club. With the exception of 2012, it was average-to-poor.

Meanwhile, we know the misfiring at the top of the lineup helped make the Reds the most inefficient offense in baseball last season. In general a player's tangibles outweigh his intangibles.

Unless his name is Scott Rolen.

I think you proved the opposite there... What if it were a bad CF out there during that time frame? Certainly possible Stubbs helped that pitching appear better than it was.

[Scrap Irony]

Of the 15 everyday starters from 2009 until last season, Stubbs ranks 5th in total UZR. However, he's closer to the middle of the pack than to the stalwarts at the top, especially if you add in Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, and (believe it or not) Bryce Harper-- all of whom played remarkably well in the middle of the diamond.

This gives me hope for Choo. Harper's skill set-- speedy, great arm, unfamiliarity with the position-- is similar enough to Choo's to see an adequate CF emerge, much like what happened in Washington last season.

This takes two rather large assumptions as fact, neither of which I feel comfortable making. One, obviously, is that last season's struggles are a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. Before 2012, Choo was, according to UZR, pretty much the Drew Stubbs of RFers-- above average, though not awesomely so.

The second assumption is that Harper isn't some defensive freak with seriously underrated minor/ amateur defensive skills. Harper had little/ no time in the minors or during his amateur career as a CF. Scouts assumed he didn't have that ability. Scouts are often wrong about defensive ability at the amateur and minor league level.

In short, if Choo can channel his inner Dexter Fowler both offensively and defensively, he's a two-win improvement over Drew Stubbs.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Brisco

Over and over in posts I see a debate on whther or not Drew Stubbs was a plus CF defender. Those who critique him say that statistically, he was not elite or even excellent. He did make it look easy and smooth, but he didnt get to more balls than most, and his particular weakness was for balls hit in front of him.

Let's assume that's true. I propose that maybe this was irrelevant. Maybe Stubbs' value to the team in terms of defense depended more on how he was perceived than his actual performance.

If they BELIEVE you have an elite CF behind you that is going to get to anything hit hard in the center of the field, I gotta believe that this will give pitchers more confidence towards challenging hitters in the middle of the plate. A bloop single that drops in front of Stubbs just stuff that happens in baseball. But when he is there to camp in front of a hard hit line drive off a mistake pitch, you feel that someone truly has your back.

For those that discount the mental aspect,.. think how often pitchers melt after an error. If a pitcher thinks they have to do it all alone, they start trying to throw the perfect pitch... they start nibbling, and then the walks come.

IF I am right about this... it is a huge cause for concern. It means that even if Choo or Bruce put up equal defense in center, if they don't look pretty doing it, the Reds run prevention is going to suffer.

I don't buy into the intangibles effect argument.

But lets play devil's advocate...which has a greater effect-believing you have a good defender in CF or knowing the top of your lineup is a blackhole and you had better not give up many runs?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

This takes two rather large assumptions as fact, neither of which I feel comfortable making. One, obviously, is that last season's struggles are a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. Before 2012, Choo was, according to UZR, pretty much the Drew Stubbs of RFers-- above average, though not awesomely so.

That's my biggest question. I think Choo will make the transition fine as far as fundamentals go, but if last year wasn't a UZR hiccup, he doesn't have anything resembling the skills to make it work either way. I could see this experiment going any number of directions really.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brisco

Th

3. If my eyes told me I had a great CF behind me (and a great SS/2B combo), I would pitch much more aggressively to all but a handful of true power hitters.


I am merely saying that, even if Choo and/or Bruce actually put up equal (or better) defensive statistics than Stubbs did last year, the Reds overall ability to prevent runs may suffer based on how this would affect the confidence/aggressiveness of our pitchers.

.

I have thought about this thread, and really don't think the Reds pitchers' confidence/aggressiveness is likely to be impacted very much by Choo playing CF as opposed to Stubbs -- unless of course Choo is a complete disaster out there, which I don't anticipate.

Thing is, Reds play in a home run stadium. Their pitchers must be focused on avoiding long fly balls. They want to keep the ball AWAY from the outfield, get grounders or Ks.

If I'm a Reds pitcher throwing at GABP or similar stadiums, I'm not really thinking too much about Drew Stubbs in CF. I'm thinking about the short right field porch. I'm thinking that Cozart and Phillips are money in the bank and a grounder to the infield is optimal.

Maybe pitchers for, say, San Diego or the Mets would care more about their outfield defenders. But a Reds pitcher doesn't want to throw fly balls -- even if Willie Mays is in CF -- because they are trying to counteract the home run possibility.

Upon reflection, I think this will all work out fine as long as Choo is reasonably competent in CF.

Also, as a plug for Walt, getting Choo really shows an ability to think out of the box. I'm sure he inquired about guys like Ben Revere for CF, but he wound up taking a defensive risk to obtain the perfect hitter for the ballclub. Very aggressive move by Walt, really hope it works out.

[traderumor]

If I am Bryan Price, and I find out that my pitcher is claiming that he is yipping because he isn't sure about his CF defense, I'm going to tell him to quit making excuses and make better pitches that give any fielder an opportunity to field the ball for an out.