2013 Reds Top 20 prospect rankings

[Red Swagger]

Reds Top 20 came out today on the website.

1. Hamilton
2. Cingrani
3. Stephenson
4. Corcino
5. Travieso
6. Lotzkar
7. Wright
8. Buckley
9. Sal Romano
10. H Rodriguez
11. Winker
12. Cisco
13. LaMarre
14. Soto
15. G Rosa
16. Waldrop
17. Gelalich
18. Langfield
19. I Guillon
20. A Garrett

Not ranked:

Yorman
Lutz
Barnhart
Vidal
Reynoso
B Greene
Rahier
Moscot
C Rogers
Mejias-Brean

[dougdirt]

As has been said other places, if that list is truly accurate and isn't an error that hasn't been updated, it is a truly terrible list.
BA/BP>John Sickels>ESPN>>>>>>>>MLB.com when it comes to prospect lists from the "big guys". I would toss several lesser known prospect oriented sites in there between ESPN and MLB.com as well.

[Benihana]

For my money, John Sickels is the best out there

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

For my money, John Sickels is the best out there

I am a big fan of John's work (I even write for his website from time to time). Before Jason took over at BP, I probably would have had him ahead of BP. I just really like Jason's takes, particularly when he has seen a guy in person. I think BA gets the nod at the top by sheer resources. While JJ Cooper is their main Reds guy, they have other resources working those channels too. Any of the first three I listed though are good in my book.

[klw]

Here's the link.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/wat...mm_mlb_players

[Vottomatic]

While it's refreshing to have so many highly regarded pitchers in the system.......it's also disheartening to have so little offensive stars in it.

I hope Winker isn't our only hope.

There may be some others to keep an eye on, but none at this point expected to be major league studs in terms of hitting.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

While it's refreshing to have so many highly regarded pitchers in the system.......it's also disheartening to have so little offensive stars in it.

I hope Winker isn't our only hope.

There may be some others to keep an eye on, but none at this point expected to be major league studs in terms of hitting.

Winker and Hamilton should be above average regulars at their respective positions (LF and CF, currently). Just in the upper minors, you have others that may grow into productive offensive players:

Henry Rodriguez-- Lifetime OPS near 800 with a plus hit tool and, before his hand injury sapped it, emerging power. A classic number two hitter that's difficult to strike out.

Neftali Soto-- Enjoyed a brilliant season in 2011, then struggled in AAA in 2012. Still young enough to dominate the league (think .275/ .350/ .525) and receive interest from many teams currently lacking a big bopper at 1B.

Bryson Smith-- Similar to Henry Rodriguez, but with added speed, less of a professional pedigree, and a position switch to CF.

Steve Selsky-- Produced a 900 OPS last season in the California League. If he can go for an 850 OPS in AA this season, he could emerge as a sleeper candidate for an OF spot as early as 2014.

David Vidal-- Before last season's early trip to AA, Vidal had provided solid value at a defense-first position. He may find his power again-- if he does, he's second in line (perhaps first?) to take some ABs from Todd Frazier at the hot corner.

Donald Lutz-- Lutz played well in High A the first half, then struggled a bit both in Bakersfield and Pennsacola in the second half. He has serious pop; if his K rate drops and he finds his hit tool, he might also become an acceptable starting candidate.

None of this includes sleeper candidates like Ryan LaMarre, who has the pedigree but not the production yet. He may very well blossom into a leadoff type much like Hamilton (though not as fast).

_________


Frankly, none of this is likely to matter much before 2015, as the Reds have candidates already in place for both 2013 and 2014. And looking for hitters two years in advance is pretty much always a crapshoot. Still, as I've said many times this offseason, the 2013 minor league season is set up to be truly fascinating.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Winker and Hamilton should be above average regulars at their respective positions (LF and CF, currently). Just in the upper minors, you have others that may grow into productive offensive players:

Henry Rodriguez-- Lifetime OPS near 800 with a plus hit tool and, before his hand injury sapped it, emerging power. A classic number two hitter that's difficult to strike out.

Neftali Soto-- Enjoyed a brilliant season in 2011, then struggled in AAA in 2012. Still young enough to dominate the league (think .275/ .350/ .525) and receive interest from many teams currently lacking a big bopper at 1B.

Bryson Smith-- Similar to Henry Rodriguez, but with added speed, less of a professional pedigree, and a position switch to CF.

Steve Selsky-- Produced a 900 OPS last season in the California League. If he can go for an 850 OPS in AA this season, he could emerge as a sleeper candidate for an OF spot as early as 2014.

David Vidal-- Before last season's early trip to AA, Vidal had provided solid value at a defense-first position. He may find his power again-- if he does, he's second in line (perhaps first?) to take some ABs from Todd Frazier at the hot corner.

Donald Lutz-- Lutz played well in High A the first half, then struggled a bit both in Bakersfield and Pennsacola in the second half. He has serious pop; if his K rate drops and he finds his hit tool, he might also become an acceptable starting candidate.

None of this includes sleeper candidates like Ryan LaMarre, who has the pedigree but not the production yet. He may very well blossom into a leadoff type much like Hamilton (though not as fast).

_________


Frankly, none of this is likely to matter much before 2015, as the Reds have candidates already in place for both 2013 and 2014. And looking for hitters two years in advance is pretty much always a crapshoot. Still, as I've said many times this offseason, the 2013 minor league season is set up to be truly fascinating.

Meh. We all know Hamilton will be up at some point by 2014. I wasn't really including him.

I was on the Soto and Lutz trains at times, but they seemed to have slipped to mediocrity.

Most studs, stud their way through the minors. Occasionally you get that guy who puts it all together late. I probably have more hope for Winker and Brean at this point than any of the guys in the levels above them (except Hamilton).

I realize the positions are stocked for awhile at the major league level. And it was just an observation, not so much a complaint.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Meh. We all know Hamilton will be up at some point by 2014. I wasn't really including him.

I was on the Soto and Lutz trains at times, but they seemed to have slipped to mediocrity.

Rodriguez got hurt-- his broken hand sapped his power. Try swinging one-handed and see how well you do in softball. Now, add 50 mph and exploding sliders.

Soto struggled, true.

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Most studs, stud their way through the minors. Occasionally you get that guy who puts it all together late. I probably have more hope for Winker and Brean at this point than any of the guys in the levels above them (except Hamilton).

I realize the positions are stocked for awhile at the major league level. And it was just an observation, not so much a complaint.

The Reds have studs at 1B, 2B, RF, and perhaps 3B, LF, and CF for the next two years. C might also blossom, and SS might end up well above average in terms of OPS and slugging.

Votto wasn't a stud all the way through. Neither was Phillips. Frazier struggled. Bruce dominated. Hamilton's half and half. Ludwick wasn't studly. Mesoraco certainly wasn't.

Just on the Reds, you've got one pure studly stud in the lineup only.

Expecting a Pujols or ARod just isn't reality, IMO.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

While it's refreshing to have so many highly regarded pitchers in the system.......it's also disheartening to have so little offensive stars in it.

I hope Winker isn't our only hope.

There may be some others to keep an eye on, but none at this point expected to be major league studs in terms of hitting.

I would also also put Mesoraco in there as a possible plus bat at his position. His first year in the bigs was a struggle, but I wouldn't write him off just quite yet.

[mrpotamus]

Did I miss some news on Juan Duran? I know he has struggled, but so has Yorman. I have not seen him listed anywhere near prospect lists.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by mrpotamus

Did I miss some news on Juan Duran? I know he has struggled, but so has Yorman. I have not seen him listed anywhere near prospect lists.

People don't like his defensive shortcomings and inability to make contact.

[holster10]

Is Lotzkar even healthy at this point?

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by holster10

Is Lotzkar even healthy at this point?

No.

[Drugs Delaney]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Rodriguez got hurt-- his broken hand sapped his power. Try swinging one-handed and see how well you do in softball. Now, add 50 mph and exploding sliders.

Soto struggled, true.



The Reds have studs at 1B, 2B, RF, and perhaps 3B, LF, and CF for the next two years. C might also blossom, and SS might end up well above average in terms of OPS and slugging.

Votto wasn't a stud all the way through. Neither was Phillips. Frazier struggled. Bruce dominated. Hamilton's half and half. Ludwick wasn't studly. Mesoraco certainly wasn't.

Just on the Reds, you've got one pure studly stud in the lineup only.

Expecting a Pujols or ARod just isn't reality, IMO.

Agree with all of this.

If Hamilton pans out, the Reds could have 7 of the 8 starting spots locked up for the next 4 or 5 years, which is an eternity in baseball. Only LF is wide open going forward. It isn't all that much to ask a great GM like Walt to fill a corner outfield spot with a bargain FA every couple of years. Those type of moves are arguably his biggest strength.

I also think we have seen a focus on pitching in recent years. Both in terms of trading young bats for major league arms and also in terms of using a majority of the early picks the last few years on pitching.

That pendulum will likely swing back in the other direction soon. I could see a power hitting 3B or OF as the #1 pick this summer. And I personally think it is highly likely that in the next 18 months we see one of the young starters (Bailey?) traded for a couple highly regarded hitting prospects. A trade like the Shields trade makes too much sense for one not to happen eventually.