Baseball America Top 100 Prospects (4 Reds)

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/...rospects-list/

20. Billy Hamilton
56. Robert Stephenson
82. Tony Cingrani
94. Daniel Corcino

[dougdirt]

Former Red Didi Gregorius came in at 80th.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Former Red Didi Gregorius came in at 80th.

Would any Reds fans entertain putting Gregorius above Cingrani, or Corcino? I would guess, no. Gregorius seems to be getting some extra hype because of position scarcity.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Would any Reds fans entertain putting Gregorius above Cingrani, or Corcino? I would guess, no. Gregorius seems to be getting some extra hype because of position scarcity.

Position scarcity plays a big factor into your value though. I would consider Didi ahead of Cingrani, but not Corcino. I had Cingrani ahead of Didi in my rankings while he was still a Red, but I can easily make the argument that he should be ahead of him too.

I mean if Billy Hamilton were a corner outfielder, his value would plummet. But he isn't. He is a center fielder.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Position scarcity plays a big factor into your value though. I would consider Didi ahead of Cingrani, but not Corcino. I had Cingrani ahead of Didi in my rankings while he was still a Red, but I can easily make the argument that he should be ahead of him too.

I mean if Billy Hamilton were a corner outfielder, his value would plummet. But he isn't. He is a center fielder.

Granted, but I think it is likely that Cingrani and Corcino (assuming health stays ok) will be at least serviceable major league pitchers, I think it is just as likely that Gregorius can't hit enough to hold a spot in the big leagues. I really question how Didi's bat plays in the Majors.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Granted, but I think it is likely that Cingrani and Corcino (assuming health stays ok) will be at least serviceable major league pitchers, I think it is just as likely that Gregorius can't hit enough to hold a spot in the big leagues. I really question how Didi's bat plays in the Majors.

If Cingrani winds up in the bullpen, which I believe is still a reasonable chance, Gregorius will easily provide more value. Of course, I have continually been the low guy on Cingrani and mostly the high guy on Gregorius when it comes to his bat. At least on this board.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If Cingrani winds up in the bullpen, which I believe is still a reasonable chance, Gregorius will easily provide more value. Of course, I have continually been the low guy on Cingrani and mostly the high guy on Gregorius when it comes to his bat. At least on this board.

But if Cingrani winds up a Loogy, he has the stuff to be a shutdown Loogy, I don't know if Gregorius has even that much value if he can't hit sitting on the bench.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

But if Cingrani winds up a Loogy, he has the stuff to be a shutdown Loogy, I don't know if Gregorius has even that much value if he can't hit sitting on the bench.

Only Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman were worth more than 1 win from the Reds bullpen last year. Marshall wasn't worth 2 wins. Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey were all worth more than every individual reliever on our team except Marshall and Chapman for the Reds. Broxton was worth a total of 1.3 wins, which is what Stubbs was worth.

Point being, when you can play quality defense, especially up the middle, you don't need to hit hardly at all, or even play full time (Heisey) in order to be more valuable than 80% of the relievers out there.

And for the record, Cingrani actually stinks against lefties compared to righties because his breaking ball sucks (his ERA is more than twice as high, lower K rate, more than double the HR rate).

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

But if Cingrani winds up a Loogy, he has the stuff to be a shutdown Loogy, I don't know if Gregorius has even that much value if he can't hit sitting on the bench.

I don't think there is much chance Cingrani becomes a LOOGY. Worst case scenario for him is that he becomes an all-purpose lefty reliever rather than a situational lefty one-out guy. I see him as a Norm Charlton type who can rack up 90 innings a year out of the bullpen rather than the 50 innings or so you expect out of a LOOGY.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Only Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman were worth more than 1 win from the Reds bullpen last year. Marshall wasn't worth 2 wins. Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey were all worth more than every individual reliever on our team except Marshall and Chapman for the Reds. Broxton was worth a total of 1.3 wins, which is what Stubbs was worth.

Point being, when you can play quality defense, especially up the middle, you don't need to hit hardly at all, or even play full time (Heisey) in order to be more valuable than 80% of the relievers out there.

And for the record, Cingrani actually stinks against lefties compared to righties because his breaking ball sucks (his ERA is more than twice as high, lower K rate, more than double the HR rate).

Of course, that presumes he doesn't stick in the rotation, which is hardly a foregone conclusion.

I'd say that Cingrani has at least as much of a chance of remaining a starter as Didi does of hitting enough to hold down a full-time job. If they both hit their ceiling (Cingrani as a mid-rotation starter and Didi as an defense-first starting SS), I'd take Cingrani. If they both hit their floor (Cingrani as a quality LH reliever and Didi as a bench glove), I'd still take Cingrani. The only way I'd take Didi over Cingrani is if Didi hits his ceiling while Cingrani craps out.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Of course, that presumes he doesn't stick in the rotation, which is hardly a foregone conclusion.

I'd say that Cingrani has at least as much of a chance of remaining a starter as Didi does of hitting enough to hold down a full-time job. If they both hit their ceiling (Cingrani as a mid-rotation starter and Didi as an defense-first starting SS), I'd take Cingrani. If they both hit their floor (Cingrani as a quality LH reliever and Didi as a bench glove), I'd still take Cingrani. The only way I'd take Didi over Cingrani is if Didi hits his ceiling while Cingrani craps out.

I agree with most of what you said. In the end, I feel slightly more confident that Didi Gregorius can OPS .675 in the Major Leagues than I do that Cingrani can improve his slider enough to become a starter in the Majors. Ceiling wise, Cingrani probably has a slight edge, but I don't think it is nearly as much as you think. Didi's ceiling is a gold glove caliber shortstop who can hit .280/.345/.400. That is a 4-5 win player. What is Cingrani's ceiling? 200 innings, 3.50 ERA? Maybe a tad better? Is that a 4-5 win player? Mat Latos was that guy last year and he wasn't a 4-5 win player.

Now, I doubt either player reaches their ceiling. Most guys don't. I feel better about Cingrani reaching his than Gregorius reaching his. But, it isn't by a whole lot either. I know that I am the highest around here on Gregorius when it comes to his bat. I am ok with that.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Didi's ceiling is a gold glove caliber shortstop who can hit .280/.345/.400. That is a 4-5 win player.

That is definitely the difference between us. I am not a fan of projecting guys to be significantly better as major leaguers than they were as minor leaguers. While some players do wind up outperforming their minor league stats, they are the exception, not the rule. I think Didi's ceiling is more in the 715 OPS range, which is right in line with his performance in AA/AAA. I think it is far more likely that Didi winds up with a sub-700 OPS (since most guys suffer some degradation versus their minor league stats) but is good enough with the leather to stay in the lineup.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

That is definitely the difference between us. I am not a fan of projecting guys to be significantly better as major leaguers than they were as minor leaguers. While some players do wind up outperforming their minor league stats, they are the exception, not the rule. I think Didi's ceiling is more in the 715 OPS range, which is right in line with his performance in AA/AAA. I think it is far more likely that Didi winds up with a sub-700 OPS (since most guys suffer some degradation versus their minor league stats) but is good enough with the leather to stay in the lineup.

I think that the power he is going to grow into when he figures out what kind of hitter he wants to be/rounds out his approach better (rather than what he does now where he simply tries three or four different approaches throughout the season - slap singles hitter/home run guy/ two strike guy). I think he is a future 10-15 HR guy and that is what could make the difference in his offensive game from say, your ceiling to my ceiling for him.

I do find it strange that in the tools section Didi gets a 35 grade in power, while Hamilton gets a 30. Didi hit as many baseballs over the fence in AAA in half a season as Hamilton has in his entire career. Didi can get some loft on the ball from time to time. Hamilton can't unless it is at his shins. Not so much that I think the 35 is off for Gregorius, but that the 30 is off for Hamilton. I don't know, I just don't see them being that close in power.

[Scrap Irony]

I think they project Hamilton filling out and improving his SH stroke as he matures.

They might also count his speed-adjusted slugging percentage as possible "found" power.

IMO, Hamilton's a better bet to have more doubles and triples due to his speed and willingness to be aggressive as a baserunner. Gregorius likely will have more HR, but not enough to make the difference in their power numbers all that noticeable.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I think they project Hamilton filling out and improving his SH stroke as he matures.

They might also count his speed-adjusted slugging percentage as possible "found" power.

IMO, Hamilton's a better bet to have more doubles and triples due to his speed and willingness to be aggressive as a baserunner. Gregorius likely will have more HR, but not enough to make the difference in their power numbers all that noticeable.

While this could be true, generally speaking, the "power" label is for home runs, not a slugging percentage type of deal.