Trade Ondrusek to the Tigers?

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I like posters who think outside the box or go out on a limb with trade proposals. That's why I like Benihana. He really puts it out there. It's harder to be a thinker than to be a stinker. LOL. An old saying. In other words, it's easy to poo-poo everything that comes along, instead of coming up with ideas.

Going out on a limb does not mean that you should suspend reality. Proposing a trade that sends a pitcher that had a 5.44 FIP in 2012 (wow, even I didn't know it was THAT bad) because a team needs a closer is suspending reality.

Want to talk J.J. Hoover? Now that would be infinitely more realistic. Ondrusek is fodder.

[CySeymour]

Your original post mentioned trading Logan to be their closer, which is what most were saying Detroit wouldn't go for. As for as offering him to Detroit if they are mostly interested in bullpen depth, then absolutely. Not sure, however, what Walt would be interested in return from them. I doubt he would be looking just to simply dump salary.

[coachpipe]

Ondrusek for Cabrera works for me

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by coachpipe

Ondrusek for Cabrera works for me

I'm throwing this out there... totally out on the limb, I'm taking a chance.

Logan for the ghost of Ty Cobb.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I'm throwing this out there... totally out on the limb, I'm taking a chance.

Logan for the ghost of Ty Cobb.

I would actually go for that trade. Logan for nothing. I really don't want him taking a bullpen spot from Hoover this year and if we don't have to pay him, I am down for that. Sure, bullpen depth is nice, but I honestly think Logan is worse than replacement level (in fact his fWAR the last two years have been negative and three years ago it was 0.1).

[bigredmechanism]

I could see a middling team maybe going for something like this if the return was equal. But a team like the Tigers is expected to compete for a WS. Logan is not the kind of reliever a WS team can afford closing out their games.

By late in the season, I didn't even want him pitching in the 7th in a close game. He's a decent middle reliever, but there is an ocean of difference between a decent 7th inning reliever and a closer on a world series contender. The Tigers might want him, but he won't be a closer, and we won't get much back.

[kaldaniels]

Yeah. I'm all for trying to polish him up and get something for him. But to try to pawn him off to the best team in baseball (at least according to my new copy of MLB The Show!) to be the closer, not gonna happen.

[Kc61]

I'm going out on a limb here.

I'm predicting that Jose Arredondo will be traded this spring.

Reds will get back a minor leaguer.

When Reds acquired Parra, a real lefthanded reliever, the need for Arredondo was reduced.

Reds bullpen is truly overstocked. Marshall, Broxton, Ondrusek, Lecure, Parra, Arredondo, Simon, Chapman, Hoover.

Yes, Chapman, not for the full year, but I think he's likely to begin in the bullpen, pitching longer stints, not closing.

That's two relievers over the limit. No, I don't think Mike Leake is going to the minor leagues.

Someone like Logan or Hoover could begin at AAA, if the options are there, but that wouldn't completely solve the problem. I guess they could send Ondrusek and Hoover both to AAA. Anything's possible.

Ondrusek was just signed for two years, I really don't think the Reds will just cast him off to the Tigers or anyone else for virtually nothing. They view him as valuable insurance and depth.

But Arredondo - he hasn't done well of late, he has the stuff to entice somebody, I'm calling a trade.

[marcshoe]

I think you're right. Parra should end up on the roster, and while I wouldn't be surprised if Hoover starts out at AAA, I don't see him in Louisville long term, and as you've pointed out, that still leaves the roster one over.

I wonder about the possibility of trading Leake if the Reds think that Lecure would be okay in the rotation in case of injury or ineffectiveness, but I'd rather have him in the bullpen, where he's proven to be dependable. Arredondo just seems like the most likely guy to go.

[texasdave]

Career numbers:

Versus righties:
Arredondo - .256/.346/.414/.759
Parra - .290/.371/.438/.809

Versus lefties:
Arredondo - .190/.290/.291/.581
Parra - .267/.349/.417/.766

Arrendondo has better numbers against both righties and lefties. Why would you keep Parra over him?

Parra had a good year against lefties in 2012. But still Arredondo's numbers are better.
Parra vL2012 - .229/.323/.312/.635

Picking between those two relievers, I am going with Jose Arredondo every time.

[marcshoe]

I was underwhelmed when the Reds picked up Parra, but the thing is that most of his numbers have been put up as a starter. Last year is the first time he's mostly worked out of the bullpen. I don't have time right now to check out the numbers, but I would guess that this was largely responsible for his better numbers against lefties last year.

And then there's the assumption that Dusty will most likely use a lefty against a lefty hitter, given the choice.

In the end, both pitchers walk too many hitters, fwiw.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Career numbers:

Versus righties:
Arredondo - .256/.346/.414/.759
Parra - .290/.371/.438/.809

Versus lefties:
Arredondo - .190/.290/.291/.581
Parra - .267/.349/.417/.766

Arrendondo has better numbers against both righties and lefties. Why would you keep Parra over him?

Parra had a good year against lefties in 2012. But still Arredondo's numbers are better.
Parra vL2012 - .229/.323/.312/.635

Picking between those two relievers, I am going with Jose Arredondo every time.

Drives me nuts when people talk platoon splits like they're a given based on simple handedness instead of looking at the actual track record of performance.

If what you want is a guy you can use to get lefties out, Arredondo is better for that task than Parra. But by Dusty's typical thinking, I imagine he's already penciled Arredondo in as his "7th inning guy" or something like that, which therefore takes him out of consideration for the "guy who gets lefties out" role...

My biggest complaint about Dusty in general has been his style of management by archetype, especially in lineup construction and bullpen use. He likes to define narrow roles he wants to fill and assign guys to those specific roles, rather than building the most talented team and then putting guys in the roles where you can get the most out of them. You need some process of back-checking to make sure you've covered certain situations, but creating those narrow categories really limits you.

Between Arredondo and Marshall, this bullpen is already equipped to get through a tough stretch of lefties in the innings -- even if that means, on occasion, using Marshall in the 7th and then having to use somebody else to set up that night.

[Kc61]

1. Reds aren't very likely to trade Leake. Arroyo is almost definitely elsewhere after this year, Mike is young, they like him, I just don't think he is going anywhere.

2. Shedding Arredondo is not a function of archetypes nor is it a function of historical lifetime stats. The goal for the Reds is to predict as accurately as possible how the pitcher will do going forward.

In the second half last year (as defined by Baseball Ref) he allowed an .860 OPS. In July he allowed a .990 OPs. Had a good August, then in September/October allowed a .980 OPS.

In the playoffs Jose pitched 1.1 innings and allowed 3 earned runs on 4 hits.

Given this second half performance, I think he is a prime candidate to be traded and would go so far as to predict such a deal. If you remember his pitching late last year, you'd probably agree with me.

[757690]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Career numbers:

Versus righties:
Arredondo - .256/.346/.414/.759
Parra - .290/.371/.438/.809

Versus lefties:
Arredondo - .190/.290/.291/.581
Parra - .267/.349/.417/.766

Arrendondo has better numbers against both righties and lefties. Why would you keep Parra over him?

Parra had a good year against lefties in 2012. But still Arredondo's numbers are better.
Parra vL2012 - .229/.323/.312/.635

Picking between those two relievers, I am going with Jose Arredondo every time.

I just don't trust Arrendondo anymore. Forget lefty/righty, he walks too many guys to be reliable. Plus he walks more lefty batters than righty ones. Parra is the opposite. He walks half as many lefties as righties.

I'm not sold on Parra, I just don't think Arredondo will be effective.

[LeDoux]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I'm throwing this out there... totally out on the limb, I'm taking a chance.

Logan for the ghost of Ty Cobb.

I really can't see Ty Cobb's ghost getting along with the "Walks will Haunt" ghost. I think you are really undervaluing the ethereal chemistry here.