Rafael Furcal - Out for Season

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

He had 2 defensive runs saved and a 2.7 UZR in limited time last year. He's not as bad on defense at SS as you may think. He was bad in the playoffs but I think that was nerves. Plus it doesn't help perception when Hunter Pence hits one of the goofiest balls I've ever seen and he couldn't get to it.

You say nerves, I say regression to his historically horrible norm.

[HometownHero]

Its the Cardinals so somehow he will find a way to maintain that crazy high BABIP thar he had to help them into the playoffs last year and be a nice player for them despite the fact his line was .236/.308/.344/.652 over 2752 minor league PA with just a .610 OPS in 243 AAA games in a great hitters league.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Isn't that a typical scenario with the Card's medical staff?

(1) Diagnose a player near the middle to end of a season with an injury.

(2) Prescribe rest becuse surgery not required.

(3) Presribe season ending surgery in spring training.

But isn't that usually the logical direction most sports medicine doctors take? And I don't know if they say (#2) that surgery is not required, but only that it may be possible to avoid it. Surgery (cutting into the human body) is the last resort.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

He had 2 defensive runs saved and a 2.7 UZR in limited time last year. He's not as bad on defense at SS as you may think. He was bad in the playoffs but I think that was nerves. Plus it doesn't help perception when Hunter Pence hits one of the goofiest balls I've ever seen and he couldn't get to it.

Limited time is the key, which for your defensive stats, make them poor evidence to support that he is a different defender than what one has concluded with anecdotal visual observation such as myself.

My guess is that the Cards will now be dealing for a SS. I cannot see them being dumb enough to attempt an entire season with bench players like Kozma and Descalzo doing a poor tag team at the most important defensive position in the game.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by traderumor

My guess is that the Cards will now be dealing for a SS. I cannot see them being dumb enough to attempt an entire season with bench players like Kozma and Descalzo doing a poor tag team at the most important defensive position in the game.

They are not dumb enough to go with bench players at the most important defensive positions.

They are likely dumb enough to go with a 3B at 2nd though and hope that the increased offense makes up for the decrease in defense. Remember, they put OF(s) there before.

I think the regression of some of their pitching over the last few years is more a result of less balls being caught than an actual decrease in pitching.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

You say nerves, I say regression to his historically horrible norm.

You mean the "historically horrible norm" which places him an above average defender even in the minors?

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

They are not dumb enough to go with bench players at the most important defensive positions.

They are likely dumb enough to go with a 3B at 2nd though and hope that the increased offense makes up for the decrease in defense. Remember, they put OF(s) there before.

I think the regression of some of their pitching over the last few years is more a result of less balls being caught than an actual decrease in pitching.

You do realize that the Cardinals had the 4th best starters ERA in baseball last year, right?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

You do realize that the Cardinals had the 4th best starters ERA in baseball last year, right?

Lohse is unlikely to be re-signed, right? Waiwright, who I was certain last spring, before i took a year long hiatus from redszone, would struggle in the first half and not really find a groove until late June, Will probably return to full form now. I hate 12 month projections for TJ surgery... It's almost always with few exceptions 15+ months before they get the feel for pitching again. It's not a solid rotation.. yet. Could be though. I think that rotation still needs Lohse, a work horse, 200 IP guy to anchor the #3 spot.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by TRF

Lohse is unlikely to be re-signed, right? Waiwright, who I was certain last spring, before i took a year long hiatus from redszone, would struggle in the first half and not really find a groove until late June, Will probably return to full form now. I hate 12 month projections for TJ surgery... It's almost always with few exceptions 15+ months before they get the feel for pitching again. It's not a solid rotation.. yet. Could be though. I think that rotation still needs Lohse, a work horse, 200 IP guy to anchor the #3 spot.

The Lohse point is absolutely valid. I would like to have him back but not at the money he's asking, mainly because of age. However, I think the pieces they have can give the Cardinals representative production. The Reds in 2010 won the division with pieces that were unknown at the time or didn't have a lot of experience. What they did have that year was a great bullpen, a great defense, and a great offense. If a team has two or more overwhelmingly great aspects to their team, they can win with it. The Cardinals bullpen looks like it's going to be very good this year and their offense will still be one of the best if not the best offense in the NL. Their defense will be ok.


By the way, the Cardinals just signed Craig to a 5 year, $31 million deal.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

You do realize that the Cardinals had the 4th best starters ERA in baseball last year, right?

You do understand what regression means, don't you.

In 2009 and 2010 the Cards defense turned balls hit into play into outs 8th and 9th best in the majors, and theri team ERA was ranked 4th both years in the NL. Above average ERA, above average defense.

In 2011 and 2012, the defense regressed to being 20th and 21st in the majors in turning balls hit into play into outs. The team pitching also regresed to 6th and 8th in the NL.

Notice I didn't cherry pick just a portion of their pitching, I used the whole staff, based on a larger sample size being better.

The fact of the matter is, the Cards pitching over the last two years has regressed, and one of the reasons is entirely attributable to the fact that less balls are being caught by the defense.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

You do understand what regression means, don't you.

In 2009 and 2010 the Cards defense turned balls hit into play into outs 8th and 9th best in the majors, and theri team ERA was ranked 4th both years in the NL. Above average ERA, above average defense.

In 2011 and 2012, the defense regressed to being 20th and 21st in the majors in turning balls hit into play into outs. The team pitching also regresed to 6th and 8th in the NL.

Notice I didn't cherry pick just a portion of their pitching, I used the whole staff, based on a larger sample size being better.

The fact of the matter is, the Cards pitching over the last two years has regressed, and one of the reasons is entirely attributable to the fact that less balls are being caught by the defense.

Actually I do understand regression and it's a huge oversight on your part not to factor in how bad the bullpen was in 2012 as to why the team ERA was so low. Regression would be an explanation last year if the starters ERA matched closely with what the bullpen did last year but it didn't. There was a drastic discrepancy between the two last season where the Cards were 4th in starters ERA and 20th in bullpen ERA. It has more to do with horrible bullpen options and a black hole in the 6th/7th innings last year than anything to do with the defense. To use your logic, somehow the defense played well for the starters but suddenly forgot how to play defense in late innings last season. It doesn't work that way. Blame it on defense all you want but I'm more willing to find fault in team ERA from such "lustrous" pitchers like Kyle McClellan, Victor Marte, Fernando Salas, Barret Browning, JC Romero, Sam Freeman, and Brian Fuentes.

EDIT: If the Reds had those options in the bullpen, even with their spectacular defense, I'm willing to bet you're bullpen would be awful. They're horrible pitchers, bottom line.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

You do realize that the Cardinals had the 4th best starters ERA in baseball last year, right?

I don't know exactly how it breaks down for starters/relievers ERA, but it should be noted that St Louis is a very pitching friendly ballpark and their team ERA+ was 14th best in baseball. That ballpark really skews pure ERA in their favor.

And aside from Kyle Lohse, no starter on the team was really above average in 2012 for the Cardinals. They had ERA+ of 109, 102, 98, 97 and 97 (with Lohse as a 134).

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Actually I do understand regression and it's a huge oversight on your part not to factor in how bad the bullpen was in 2012 as to why the team ERA was so low. Regression would be an explanation last year if the starters ERA matched closely with what the bullpen did last year but it didn't. There was a drastic discrepancy between the two last season where the Cards were 4th in starters ERA and 20th in bullpen ERA. It has more to do with horrible bullpen options and a black hole in the 6th/7th innings last year than anything to do with the defense. To use your logic, somehow the defense played well for the starters but suddenly forgot how to play defense in late innings last season. It doesn't work that way. Blame it on defense all you want but I'm more willing to find fault in team ERA from such "lustrous" pitchers like Kyle McClellan, Victor Marte, Fernando Salas, Barret Browning, JC Romero, Sam Freeman, and Brian Fuentes.

EDIT: If the Reds had those options in the bullpen, even with their spectacular defense, I'm willing to bet you're bullpen would be awful. They're horrible pitchers, bottom line.

If the defense had caught more balls, the starters would have been better and the relievers would have been better. The pitching would have been better.

More balls caught means less hits, less hits mean less baserunners, less baserunners means less runs, less runs means better pitchers. Starters and relievers.

It wasn't that long ago that many Cards fans were pumping up Matre, Fuents, JC Romero and Salas. Choate is simply this year's Romero, who was last year's Trevor Miller. Mujica is a 4 ERA guy who had a lucky BABIP induced run in St. Luois. He might be talking about him this year like you talked about salas last year. Rosenthal is the only real difference maker you have this year over last, and he looks great.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Didn't you also say last year that Freese wasn't going to give the Cardinals 20 HRs?

Well then, let's make another wager.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

If the defense had caught more balls, the starters would have been better and the relievers would have been better. The pitching would have been better.

More balls caught means less hits, less hits mean less baserunners, less baserunners means less runs, less runs means better pitchers. Starters and relievers.

It wasn't that long ago that many Cards fans were pumping up Matre, Fuents, JC Romero and Salas. Choate is simply this year's Romero, who was last year's Trevor Miller. Mujica is a 4 ERA guy who had a lucky BABIP induced run in St. Luois. He might be talking about him this year like you talked about salas last year. Rosenthal is the only real difference maker you have this year over last, and he looks great.

Ok but the real time stats do not show in your nice, neat package you present about defense. There's obviously something that happened as to why the starters ERA last season was light years ahead of the bullpen ERA. It's called better talent in the Starters and horrible talent by the relievers. Bad defense doesn't account for a 24% line drive rate for Salas last season. That is not a winnable line drive percentage even if you had the infield the 1999 Mets had.

You overstate things when you say Cardinals fans were "pumped up" about those pitchers. Saying a pitcher did well for a certain period of time, like I did about Salas, doesn't mean I'm pumped up about him. I'm just stating how I feel about a pitcher at a given time. In 2011, Salas did a good job, which isn't very debatable if you look at the stats involved.

As a LOOGY, Randy Choate has always been good against left handed hitters. He will do ok for the role he's asked to do, esp. since he won't be the only left handed pitcher in the bullpen.

You're right that Rosenthal is a difference maker but you treat that as if it's a minor thing. He fills a role where the Cardinals lost a lot of games last season, the 6th/7th inning role. Also, there's a chance that Joe Kelly or Shelby Miller go to the bullpen and Salas might not even make the team this year out of camp. Both of those pitchers are upgrades over what they had last season in the bullpen. Eduardo Sanchez has looked good this spring and he might make the team. Again, another player that gives the Cardinals better options than what they had last season.