Can our rotation repeat? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Trajinous · 03-15-2013, 02:57 PM

I was looking at our starting rotation stats and realized how great they were. It was spectacularly consistent from 1-5.

Cumulative stats from 2012 season.
98 Quality Starts
161 Games Started
1015 Innings Pitched
1.22 WHIP
16.3 WAR
768 Strikeouts
3.65 ERA
6.77 K/9

I'm just blown away by these numbers and wondering how they could improve? Which makes the Chapman addition so fascinating.

Salukifan2 · 03-15-2013, 03:11 PM

Because the rotation is so young I think they can remain very durable for a few years. Maybe not 160 starts a year durable, but still very durable.

The DARK · 03-15-2013, 03:14 PM

One thing's for sure; they'll need to get even better to just repeat. While we certainly had a great staff last year, we had a historical anomaly in terms of health. It'll take further development and our depth stepping it up to repeat.

jojo · 03-15-2013, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trajinous

I was looking at our starting rotation stats and realized how great they were. It was spectacularly consistent from 1-5.

Cumulative stats from 2012 season.
98 Quality Starts
161 Games Started
1015 Innings Pitched
1.22 WHIP
16.3 WAR
768 Strikeouts
3.65 ERA
6.77 K/9

I'm just blown away by these numbers and wondering how they could improve? Which makes the Chapman addition so fascinating.

The rotation should be a strength, but I don't think they can repeat 2012 if for no other reason than they had a rotation where I don't believe a single starter actually missed a start all year. Someone is likely to be injured this year and it will likely hurt the numbers. Luck can be a lady but she can also be something less than.

OnBaseMachine · 03-15-2013, 04:51 PM

I'm not sure the Reds will be lucky enough to only have to use five starters again this season, but from a performance standpoint, I think the talent is there to get even better. I expect Cueto to continue being the ace he's been the last two season. I think Latos is going improve upon his 3.48 ERA last season. The talent is there for him to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. Bailey looked like he took a huge step forward toward the end of last season. An ERA around 3.25 to 3.50 out of him wouldn't surprise me. Bronson's ERA may drop off some, but I still think he can be counted on for 200 innings of league average. Chapman is the wildcard, if he pitches like I think he's going to, the fifth spot in the rotation will be a huge upgrade over last season.

dougdirt · 03-15-2013, 05:13 PM

Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.

RedsManRick · 03-15-2013, 06:15 PM

And a slightly more sabermetric set:

Code:

	  Reds	NL Rank
GS	   162	     --
IP      1018.2	    2nd
K%	 18.2%	   12th
BB%	  5.8%	    2nd
HR/9	  1.05	  T-8th	 
ERA	  3.64	    4th
ERA-	    90      2nd
FIP	  3.92	    8th
FIP-        98	  T-6th
WAR	  14.7	  T-5th

I actually do think we can repeat most of these. ERA will probably the toughest given that it's pretty strongly buoyed by the defense. But if we get 20 starts from Chapman, who knows.

The health was definitely awesome last year, but we do have some decent SP depth.

757690 · 03-15-2013, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.

Dead on. Because of this, lets say one of the starters gets injured this spring. Do you make an one year offer to Lohse?

RedFanAlways1966 · 03-15-2013, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.

But a lot of innings might be replaced with Chapman? Lets not forget that "possibility" (I am still not 100% convinced it will happen).

I too will not bet money that injuries will be avoided. But the "Chapman factor" should count too. Will he be better than the person he replaces? Hopefully, but it remains to be seen.

tedies · 03-15-2013, 10:49 PM

I don't think we'll see anything like last year for a long time, those numbers are simply unreal. I think our rotation will be very solid but its impossible to live up to that

03-15-2013, 02:57 PM	#1
Trajinous Member Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 300	Can our rotation repeat? I was looking at our starting rotation stats and realized how great they were. It was spectacularly consistent from 1-5. Cumulative stats from 2012 season. 98 Quality Starts 161 Games Started 1015 Innings Pitched 1.22 WHIP 16.3 WAR 768 Strikeouts 3.65 ERA 6.77 K/9 I'm just blown away by these numbers and wondering how they could improve? Which makes the Chapman addition so fascinating.

03-15-2013, 03:11 PM	#2
Salukifan2 Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Carbondale IL Posts: 411	Re: Can our rotation repeat? Because the rotation is so young I think they can remain very durable for a few years. Maybe not 160 starts a year durable, but still very durable.

03-15-2013, 03:14 PM	#3
The DARK Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 941	Re: Can our rotation repeat? One thing's for sure; they'll need to get even better to just repeat. While we certainly had a great staff last year, we had a historical anomaly in terms of health. It'll take further development and our depth stepping it up to repeat.

03-15-2013, 04:51 PM	#5
OnBaseMachine Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 34,662	Re: Can our rotation repeat? I'm not sure the Reds will be lucky enough to only have to use five starters again this season, but from a performance standpoint, I think the talent is there to get even better. I expect Cueto to continue being the ace he's been the last two season. I think Latos is going improve upon his 3.48 ERA last season. The talent is there for him to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. Bailey looked like he took a huge step forward toward the end of last season. An ERA around 3.25 to 3.50 out of him wouldn't surprise me. Bronson's ERA may drop off some, but I still think he can be counted on for 200 innings of league average. Chapman is the wildcard, if he pitches like I think he's going to, the fifth spot in the rotation will be a huge upgrade over last season. __________________ I miss Adam Dunn.

03-15-2013, 05:13 PM	#6
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,780	Re: Can our rotation repeat? Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings. __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

03-15-2013, 06:15 PM	#7
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,921	Re: Can our rotation repeat? And a slightly more sabermetric set: Code: Reds NL Rank GS 162 -- IP 1018.2 2nd K% 18.2% 12th BB% 5.8% 2nd HR/9 1.05 T-8th ERA 3.64 4th ERA- 90 2nd FIP 3.92 8th FIP- 98 T-6th WAR 14.7 T-5th I actually do think we can repeat most of these. ERA will probably the toughest given that it's pretty strongly buoyed by the defense. But if we get 20 starts from Chapman, who knows. The health was definitely awesome last year, but we do have some decent SP depth. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

03-15-2013, 10:49 PM	#10
tedies Vottobot Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 130	Re: Can our rotation repeat? I don't think we'll see anything like last year for a long time, those numbers are simply unreal. I think our rotation will be very solid but its impossible to live up to that __________________ Go Redlegs!!

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