Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

[The DARK]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Hayes is a solid relief pitching prospect, which is why I have not voted for him yet. I just don't see too much value in relief pitching prospects. I would rather go with a guy who could make a major impact in the bigs.

I'd agree, but I think we've gotten past the point where we're looking at major impact players of any sort. As you said, Kivel looks like he's got a nice arm, but I'm very reluctant to support a "late bloomer" who missed most of his last season with a torn ACL. Is there any information you can give regarding his mechanics?

[mth123]

Went with Ravin. Maybe he harnesses his big arm and becomes an inpact reliever for the late innings. There may be a few role players left, but not seeing much of anyone who can make an impact. If Ravin can harness it, he probably has the best chance.

[mace]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Hayes is a solid relief pitching prospect, which is why I have not voted for him yet. I just don't see too much value in relief pitching prospects. I would rather go with a guy who could make a major impact in the bigs.

So if, say, Sam LeCure were still on the list, and you knew what he would do as a major-league reliever, you wouldn't vote for him at #34?

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mace

So if, say, Sam LeCure were still on the list, and you knew what he would do as a major-league reliever, you wouldn't vote for him at #34?

There is a difference between voting for a relief pitching prospect and a solid reliever. Right now, Hayes seems to have strike-out stuff, but struggles with throwing strikes. I know he has had a good spring, but he is still not a for sure reliever. Kivel may not be likely to pitch in the major leagues, but if he does, he could be a solid starting pitcher. I am not too worried about ACL issues. If he did not have that injury, the Reds would not have been able to take him in the 10th round.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

There is a difference between voting for a relief pitching prospect and a solid reliever. Right now, Hayes seems to have strike-out stuff, but struggles with throwing strikes. I know he has had a good spring, but he is still not a for sure reliever. Kivel may not be likely to pitch in the major leagues, but if he does, he could be a solid starting pitcher.

I'm the opposite.

I'll take the guy who has a very good chance of making the majors and being a useful spare part (like Chris Manno for instance) over the kid who has a infinitesimal chance of becoming a league average starter. If you want to talk about potential, everyone has potential. Chris Manno could turn into the second coming of John Franco. It's not very likely that happens, but then again it's also not very likely that Kivel ever becomes a major leaguer, much less a league average starter.

At this point in the list, with all the premium talent gone, I would rather err on the side of probability rather than potential. Give me a guy with a high probability of making the majors over a kid with a snowball's chance in Hell of ever realizing his 'potential'.

[Scrap Irony]

I cannot believe a guy who OPSed 900+ last season and has put up a two year professional line that's comparable to the best in each league is still being ignored.

Steve Selsky has a real chance to start in the major leagues for a few years and might be very good for a few of those.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I'm the opposite.

I'll take the guy who has a very good chance of making the majors and being a useful spare part (like Chris Manno for instance) over the kid who has a infinitesimal chance of becoming a league average starter. If you want to talk about potential, everyone has potential. Chris Manno could turn into the second coming of John Franco. It's not very likely that happens, but then again it's also not very likely that Kivel ever becomes a major leaguer, much less a league average starter.

At this point in the list, with all the premium talent gone, I would rather err on the side of probability rather than potential. Give me a guy with a high probability of making the majors over a kid with a snowball's chance in Hell of ever realizing his 'potential'.

Agree to disagree then. Useful spare parts are always available via free agency. Good, young starting pitching may be the most valuable thing in all of baseball. Kivel may not ever make the bigs, but in the unlikely event he does reach his ceiling, he has a lot more value than a bullpen arm.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I cannot believe a guy who OPSed 900+ last season and has put up a two year professional line that's comparable to the best in each league is still being ignored.

Steve Selsky has a real chance to start in the major leagues for a few years and might be very good for a few of those.

Steve Selsky would have more believers if he didn't fail to hit in Dayton. Selsky has hit when he has been in launching pads. When he went to Dayton, he OPS'd .717. Maybe it was just a coincidence, but it happened and I think it is something that is being held against him.

With that said, I have him in this range (a tad further down). Still, I want to see him hit somewhere that isn't a launching pad (which means Louisville at this point) before really jumping on board.

[NebraskaRed]

Voted for Hayes

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Steve Selsky would have more believers if he didn't fail to hit in Dayton. Selsky has hit when he has been in launching pads. When he went to Dayton, he OPS'd .717. Maybe it was just a coincidence, but it happened and I think it is something that is being held against him.

With that said, I have him in this range (a tad further down). Still, I want to see him hit somewhere that isn't a launching pad (which means Louisville at this point) before really jumping on board.

Looking at the other players chosen, it doesn't seem to be a requirement to hit anywhere for anyone aside from Selsky.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Looking at the other players chosen, it doesn't seem to be a requirement to hit anywhere for anyone aside from Selsky.

Ha. I can only speak for myself even though I wish I could speak for everyone.... they mostly seem to think I am crazy. But I do think Selsky is suffering from a mix of "didn't hit to start the year in Dayton then hit where everyone hits in Bakersfield" along with his late draft status.

[Scrap Irony]

Not everyone hits in Bakersfield. Look at that team.

And Selsky hit the living hell out of the ball.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Not everyone hits in Bakersfield. Look at that team.

And Selsky hit the living hell out of the ball.

Most people hit in the California League who wind up being anything.

Selsky hit very well. But when you look at it, his power went way up in a league that is known to boost power to the extreme and he had a .402 BABIP with the Blaze. Walk rate was solid. Strikeout rate was solid.

End of the day, you have to ask, which is more likely: That a late round draft pick turned into a superstar right as he entered the California League, or that he was more likely the guy who was average-ish in Dayton in the first half of that season?

My guess is, most people feel that he is more of that second guy than that first guy.

[Scrap Irony]

I suppose my comment on their thinking: isn't it better to chose a guy that actually showed signs of hitting a ball over someone who hasn't hit much at all? I mean, perhaps Selsky is indeed a mirage, but his type of mirage is a much, much better bet than someone who's never shown any plus tool, good offensive league or not.

(And the same can be said about pitching. I realize scouting reports may be important, but success is just as important-- moreso, according to recent sabremetric study.)

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I suppose my comment on their thinking: isn't it better to chose a guy that actually showed signs of hitting a ball over someone who hasn't hit much at all? I mean, perhaps Selsky is indeed a mirage, but his type of mirage is a much, much better bet than someone who's never shown any plus tool, good offensive league or not.

(And the same can be said about pitching. I realize scouting reports may be important, but success is just as important-- moreso, according to recent sabremetric study.)

Which study are you referring to?

With Selsky, I would absolutely take him over someone who hasn't shown any kind of real tools before, or someone without much performance unless their tools are overwhelming. Like I said, I had him ranked in this range (a few spots lower, but I have no issue with him here at all).