Homer Bailey agrees to a contract; $2.3M bonus

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by M2

And Gruler's only throwing mid-80s? He's still got a long way back if that's the case. Until he can work in the 90s again, he's not a prospect.

Absolutely correct M2 - it Gruler can't get it back up to 93-95 (he was touching 97 in HS and in rookie ball) then he loses all prospect status. Lets hope he can get it back, cause only throwing 80s right now shows that he is not fully recovered yet, and that he is afraid to air it out (which probably has to do with the not fully recovered).

[MikeS21]

It's still pretty early for Gruler to be throwing 90 mph fastballs. That might not come until next year. While it would be nice for Gruler to regain his low to mid 90's fastball, I REALLY hope that knee buckling curveball that Gruler throws comes back.

But back to Homer Bailey. From what I have read, for a high school pitcher, this kid is an absolute stud - that he has all the tools to be a legitimate #1 starter. While I really had hoped the Reds would have landed a college pitcher, Bailey sounds to be exactly what we need - a bonafide #1 starter. It will be interesting to keep an eye on his K/9 and WHIP stats as he advances through the minors. While I don't want to fall into the trap of anointing Bailey as a "sure thing," at the same time, wouldn't it be nice if the Reds had the 20 or 21 year old whiz kid pitcher that has dominated the minors and steals all the headlines.

Think about it. Could a rotation headed by Bailey, Claussen, and Gruler be the Reds' answer to the Cubs' Wood, Prior, and Zambrano?

[Oxilon]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

Think about it. Could a rotation headed by Bailey, Claussen, and Gruler be the Reds' answer to the Cubs' Wood, Prior, and Zambrano?

Could be, but by the time that Gruler, Claussen, and Bailey are all in the Reds rotation (if ever), Wood, Prior, and Zambrano will all be entering their prime (meanwhile our pitchers would barely have any experience) and might not even be Cubs.

[M2]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

Think about it. Could a rotation headed by Bailey, Claussen, and Gruler be the Reds' answer to the Cubs' Wood, Prior, and Zambrano?

It could also be the next Rob Bell, Ty Howington and Ricardo Aramboles. Everyone's got young pitchers in their system, yet fans always seem to think their team is the one holding the magic ticket.

For the record, Claussen's struggled in AAA, Bailey's yet to throw a professional pitch and Gruler's undergone a surgery which tends to permanently rob a pitcher of his velocity. They are so not Wood, Prior and Zambrano at this juncture that the comparison lacks any and all meaning.

[Redmachine2003]

Next year is the big year for Gruler. They say it takes two years for the shoulder to come back and 1 year for Tommy John.

[jmcclain19]

Originally Posted by M2

It could also be the next Rob Bell, Ty Howington and Ricardo Aramboles. Everyone's got young pitchers in their system, yet fans always seem to think their team is the one holding the magic ticket.

For the record, Claussen's struggled in AAA, Bailey's yet to throw a professional pitch and Gruler's undergone a surgery which tends to permanently rob a pitcher of his velocity. They are so not Wood, Prior and Zambrano at this juncture that the comparison lacks any and all meaning.

For Grins

Career Minor League Numbers
Wood - 5 years - 296IP, 364K, 218BB, 178H, 123R, 3.74ERA, 1.34WHIP
Claussen - 4 years - 530IP, 553K, 172BB, 458H, 186ER, 3.16ERA, 1.19WHIP

[Doc. Scott]

Clarify for me the surgery Gruler had. It was the labrum, right? Not TJ? How severe was the tear?

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

Clarify for me the surgery Gruler had. It was the labrum, right? Not TJ? How severe was the tear?

It was labrum, although I am not sure how severe the tear was - but with that type of surgery I think that the fact they had to operate by definition makes it a pretty severe tear.

And he is now about one year removed from the surgery, and it appears to be a two year recovery time - but the lack of velocity (not even touching 90 yet, which is 6 to 8 MPH less than he had) still scares me. I think he should be regularly back up to 90 and above (which would be a 4-5 MPH decrease). All this seems to say to me that he will never get the full velocity back and might be forced to have to live off a 92-93 MPH instead of the 96-97 he was expected to have.

As was already mentioned, the hammer curve was his bread and butter, I just think it would have been even more effective with the fastball that he could blow by people if they weren't always looking for it.

[jmcclain19]

With Gruler, what should have Reds fans jumping for joy is that he's still getting guys out w/o the blazing fastball.

When your throwing in the mid 80s, you can't just rear back and throw, you have to make good pitches.

Chris has done well w/o velocity this season. That little nugget will sit in his brain, making him more dangerous down the road should he ever get that fastball back up in the mid 90's.

[M2]

Originally Posted by jmcclain19

With Gruler, what should have Reds fans jumping for joy is that he's still getting guys out w/o the blazing fastball.

When your throwing in the mid 80s, you can't just rear back and throw, you have to make good pitches.

Chris has done well w/o velocity this season. That little nugget will sit in his brain, making him more dangerous down the road should he ever get that fastball back up in the mid 90's.

I'm glad he's back, but I see no reason to jump for joy. Gruler's a 20-year-old pitching lucky (he's allowing far too many baserunners for my tastes) in rookie ball and he isn't showing much in the way of stuff. It doesn't really matter what lessons he learns right now if the stuff doesn't return.

Probably the most realistic expectation is that he recovers to have Acevedo-class stuff, which makes him a marginal prospect. But this guy was a #3 overall pick. You want someone you select that high to profile as an ace. Until we see how much he gets back (and I suspect we're looking at 2006 before we get a true answer on that) Gruler's nothing more than a player for whom we've got our fingers crossed. All we can do is hope for the best, but unfortunately we can't assume it.

I'm more encouraged by Rafael Gonzalez at this moment.

[LvJ]

Originally Posted by jmcclain19

For Grins

Anyways, I suggest Gruler learn to throw a knuckleball. WITH HIS LEFT HAND!

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by LvJ

Anyways, I suggest Gruler learn to throw a knuckleball. WITH HIS LEFT HAND!

Hmmm, now you got me thinking, I can't recall a left handed knuckler. Anyone?

[M2]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Hmmm, now you got me thinking, I can't recall a left handed knuckler. Anyone?

Wilbur Wood

[traderumor]

How could I forget Wilbur? Geesh, I've been playing a 1968 Strat replay for three years, grew up in the 70s, had probably twenty "doubles" of his baseball card in my tire spokes...

Speaking of knucklers, isn't that what Hoyt Wilhelm threw? If so, that means that 1968 White Sox team could bring a lefty/righty knuckler combination at you. Sounds like something Bowden would have tried.

[guernsey]

From the DDN:

If he performs on the mound as well as he performs behind a podium, the Reds on Monday signed a polished diamond for a $2.3 million bonus.