Should the Reds re-sign Wilson for 2005?

[BEETTLEBUG]

Sign Wilson let Lidle walk maybe they can find another pitcher similar to Lidle.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by BEETTLEBUG

Sign Wilson let Lidle walk maybe they can find another pitcher similar to Lidle.

I take it you want to have this conversation again for the next umpteen years. If we keep doing what we've been doing for the last 3-4 years we'll end up the same place we've been the last 3-4 years in October.

As far as pitchers to target this coming offseason, how do you guys feel about Kurt Ainsworth for the Orioles? I know he's been plagued by elbow issues this year (not TJ surgery) but if I remember correctly he was talked about as having #2-#3 type stuff a year ago. Maybe the O's have soured on him and he can come cheaply in trade. Do you think he'll develop and be an effective pitcher down the road, or better, do you think he can stay injury free?

[oregonred]

Originally Posted by M2

Assuming you can't do better, signing mediocrity, hoping for young pitchers to pan out. Haven't we been here before? Wasn't DanO brought in to change things?

Investing in a #3-4 guy and gambling on #1 and #2 doesn't strike me as all that sound an idea when you could invest in #1 and possibly a #2 and gamble on that #3-4 guy.

I'm assuming investing in a #1/#2 via FA isn't a viable option... Sure, I'll take the #2 guy at 8M per and feel better about gambling on bottomfishing with a Wilson/Lidle clone.

I'd advocate both moves, but its going to take Graves/Larue's contracts off the books at minimum. Assuming KGJ is immovable you might have to move -- gulp --- the mayor :thumbdn:

$3M for a Wilson in 2005 isn't going to kill you for a one yr deal. Might as well shut down the franshise if 2.5M fannies in the seats from 2004 can't fund a below average salary for a starting pitcher.

In any event the equation won't work here unless a couple of the youngsters become viable rotation options in 2006 timeframe. You either run out of money or run out of luck...

[M2]

Wilson+Lidle+Haynes = $8.75M. They've got enough money to make a big splash on a starting pitcher. Move Graves or Jr. or Casey off the books (Graves being the prime target) and you've got more than $15M.

Those are the numbers. The Reds have enough cash in hand to make the kind of deal we're talking about, potentially enough to do it twice. Sign Wilson and fail to move any of the big contracts and suddenly the capacity to make that deal is gone.

[wheels]

Dump bad contracts and replace them with a couple of Matt Clement types?

Or

Hold onto guys like Paul Wilson whilst crossing ones fingers hoping they can keep this Reds juggernaut afloat.

You decide.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by wheels

Dump bad contracts and replace them with a couple of Matt Clement types?

Or

Hold onto guys like Paul Wilson whilst crossing ones fingers hoping they can keep this Reds juggernaut afloat.

You decide.

****in my best John Allen voice****

.....uhhhhh, the second one? :MandJ:

[wheels]

It just all seems so painfully obvious to me.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by wheels

It just all seems so painfully obvious to me.

I know. The Reds F.O. reminds me of a bunch of whiny brat kids

ooohhh, we can't trade Graves, we can't trade Wilson / Lidle, the fans will be mad.

ohhhh, we can't afford <insert name>, we're not a large market team

[Cali Red]

9-2 3.71 era, why not? How many other pitchers do the Reds have like that? If we had a reliable closer he would be 14-2.

[Matt700wlw]

1 year deal with an option for 2006

I think it'd be a very smart move

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

1 year deal with an option for 2006

I think it'd be a very smart move

1 year deal with a CLUB option for 2006.

Had to specify that after the PLAYER option that Jimbo gave to Haynes.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by flyer85

1 year deal with a CLUB option for 2006.

Had to specify that after the PLAYER option that Jimbo gave to Haynes.

...That's what I meant

[MattyHo4Life]

IMO the Reds would be smart to re-sign Wilson. I'd be surprised if he signed a one year deal (a team option is still a one year deal to the player) considering his last deal was for 2 years. Of course this is assuming that the Reds don't make a play for a better pitcher like Ortiz and Clement like M2 posted.

OTOH... if the Reds don't re-sign Wilson... I hope the Cards do since Matt and Woody will most likely be gone after this season. The Cards tried to sign Wilson 2 years ago, but they were outbid by the Reds.

[oregonred]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

IMO the Reds would be smart to re-sign Wilson. I'd be surprised if he signed a one year deal (a team option is still a one year deal to the player) considering his last deal was for 2 years. Of course this is assuming that the Reds don't make a play for a better pitcher like Ortiz and Clement like M2 posted.

OTOH... if the Reds don't re-sign Wilson... I hope the Cards do since Matt and Woody will most likely be gone after this season. The Cards tried to sign Wilson 2 years ago, but they were outbid by the Reds.

Good insight from someone who's not living in the 1980's salary range. The Cards make a good living off finding solid rotation fillers to supplement their rotation needs. Not the 500K-1M retread types, but guys that can be solid middle of the rotation starters for a year or two. 2-3M is viable for middle of the road starters, and should be part of the Reds 2005 payroll budget. $12-15M. Go find a #2 for 8M per year, a Wilson for 3M and take a flyer on one of your kids or a 500K-1M project in '05.

Given the Reds circumstances, they'd be nuts not to sign Wilson in 2005 for a one year deal in the 3M range. Let's see he's good enough to help a contender in 2004 (teams like the Phils/Mets/Giants with a much better rotation in place), yet he doesn't make sense for the pitching-poor Reds (with 2 of 5 rotation spots filled in 2005 in total, both by youngsters) to bring back next season. You can't go from the Reds of 2004 to the mystical rotation of 5 high ceiling arms (Cubs) overnight. Wilson is a necessary and productive filler. You can win with a Paul Wilson in your 2005 rotation.

[WVRed]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

OTOH... if the Reds don't re-sign Wilson... I hope the Cards do since Matt and Woody will most likely be gone after this season. The Cards tried to sign Wilson 2 years ago, but they were outbid by the Reds.

For some reason, I find the Reds outbidding the Cardinals hard to believe.