Reds sign Wilson

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Chip R

If the Reds don't add another starter like Clement or Perez the only way this signing puts a smile on my face is if the Reds use that money they would have spent to sign one of those pitchers, to lock up Dunn long term.

Even if they don't sign another starter they need to lock up Dunn.

[Crash Davis]

Originally Posted by Raisor

Hopefully, Wilson will become trade bait (I haven't read anything saying that he got a no-trade clause, if he did O'Brien should be fired today) by the deadline. Maybe knowing what he makes the next couple years will give some contending team the idea to trade for him.

That's about my only upside.

Agreed. However, the time to trade him was July 2004.

What happens when Wilson has a good first half again? O'Brien won't have the balls to deal him.

I have a feeling "nothing will be imminent" on that front...until it's too late.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Big Donkey

Basically, it's all about if we add another pitcher. As simple as that. If it were announced tomorrow (or a week after tomorrow, more realistically, December 8th, but this is hypothetical) that the Reds have come to terms with Odalis Perez or Matt Clement or Jaret Wright or whomever, the Wilson signing is ok in everyone's book.

For my part that won't make the Wilson signing ok. No matter what, the Reds could have done better with that money. Though Clement or Perez (not Wright by a longshot) would give me the ability to look at the offseason through a Tralfamadoran lens where I only visit the happy parts of the experience.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Crash Davis

Agreed. However, the time to trade him was July 2004.

What happens when Wilson has a good first half again? O'Brien won't have the balls to deal him.

.

I think the problem was the Reds were seen as being in contention when Wilson was at his best in 2004. If the Reds are stinking it up, while Wilson is doing well, I doubt there will be much of a protest in dealing him.

[Aronchis]

Another point to bring up is Populism. The Reds players I bet were gun hoe for the Reds to resign Wilson. Doesn't make it right, but with Miley a populist manager, it wouldn't surprise me on alot of personal moves, if O'brien goes with the players voice. Not all the time like with the Reitsma deal, but far more than most teams do.

The Wilson signing doesn't sound good to the Reds fan, but for the players themselves, they are probably very happy right now.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

The Wilson signing doesn't sound good to the Reds fan, but for the players themselves, they are probably very happy right now.

Which is why I'm glad there aren't any Player/GM's (at least officially).

I'm a firm believer that the boss shouldn't be friends with his/her employees. They can be friendly, but it's business not personal.

[DoogMinAmo]

Originally Posted by Redmachine2003

for those who say this is a bad signing and wished DanO would have spend 3.5-5 mill more on a Clement or some like that, just think you are willing to spend up to 5 mill dollars more for maybe 5 extra wins at the most if that much.

Execellent post! Even if it were 7-10 more wins from Clement, which I doubt, could that money not be better spent on bullpen help? If our bullpen blew half as many games last year, we would have had a winning season.

[iammrred]

Originally Posted by M2

Cash
But strength of system is something you never even hear discussed in all the various ramblings about the free agent market.

IMO, those are things you and I care about, but we're by no means indicative of the standard thought process in the marketplace.

I really think those are things players would care about, especially the ones the Reds are likely to go after. Someone like Pedro Martinez can sign with a team and have not a worry in the world about his role on a roster. However, he's going to want to know if there's any help from the minor leagues to contribute to winning.

And on the other hand, someone like a Wade Miller, the type of pitcher the Reds could go after, has been in a steady decline over the past few years. Before he signs with a team, I'd assume he'd want to know whether or not there are a couple of prospects knocking on the door, which could send him to the bullpen if he gets off to a shaky start.

I'm not saying it's a huge consideration (nowhere near the actual dollar amount of the total number of years of the contract) for most players, but for the type of players the Reds are going to target, it's probably a significant one.

[M2]

Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo

Execellent post! Even if it were 7-10 more wins from Clement, which I doubt, could that money not be better spent on bullpen help? If our bullpen blew half as many games last year, we would have had a winning season.

It's madness to think the Reds can tinker their way to success. This staff is broken, worst pitching in team history (something that apparently hasn't soaked in with some folks). Either they populate the rotation and pen with quality pitchers or it's just going to be more of the same.

[bleedsred]

If 3.5 million to Paul Wilson hamstrings the Reds from signing another 1 or 2 starters than maybe Cincy should just be a minor league team. I like the signing...Wilson deserves this contract and could have probably done a lot better somewhere else. Thumbs up to Wilson for WANTING to be a RED with hardly a raise at all. If the Reds can't put another 9-15 million into the staff, don't blame Paul Wilson, blame the guy making who knows how many millions with a brand new stadium with all the fixin's....

[Raisor]

Everyone pretty much agrees that the Cory Lidle signing was a blunder for the Phils.

Here's something to keep in mind. Paul Wilson and Lidle had the exact same OPS against, .771.

[M2]

Originally Posted by iammrred

I really think those are things players would care about, especially the ones the Reds are likely to go after. Someone like Pedro Martinez can sign with a team and have not a worry in the world about his role on a roster. However, he's going to want to know if there's any help from the minor leagues to contribute to winning.

And on the other hand, someone like a Wade Miller, the type of pitcher the Reds could go after, has been in a steady decline over the past few years. Before he signs with a team, I'd assume he'd want to know whether or not there are a couple of prospects knocking on the door, which could send him to the bullpen if he gets off to a shaky start.

I'm not saying it's a huge consideration (nowhere near the actual dollar amount of the total number of years of the contract) for most players, but for the type of players the Reds are going to target, it's probably a significant one.

Pedro Martinez wants to A) get paid and B) win now. He's not sitting down looking at the relative strengths of the Mets, Yankees and Sox minor league operations. When it comes to winning, he's going to look at the major league roster, how the team did in recent years and how much it can spend on additional immediate help. Period. Mostly it sounds like he wants to get paid. If you think he's sitting down assessing the relative strengths of Kelly Shoppach vs. Dioner Navarro, you're sorely mistaken.

I think you're right that Miller's going to want to go a team with a lousy rotation where he's guaranteed a start every fifth day, but I'm hard-pressed to think of a team with multiple stud prospects on the cusp of making the majors. Again, he's going to focus a lot more on who's in the rotation right now (Wilson, Harang, Hudson, Claussen). Everything I've ever read and heard from major leaguers indicates that they care almost exclusively about players in the majors and put little to no stock in kids who haven't done a thing in The Show.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Raisor

Even if they don't sign another starter they need to lock up Dunn.

Oh, I agree. I'm just saying the Wilson re-signing will be more palatable if they lock Adam up.

[RFS62]

This Reds front office is adverse-risk. All they have to do to remember why is look at Junior.

I don't think they would sign another big contract if they had the chance.

If this is all we do, then obviously, the critics are exactly right and we're in deep trouble.

Personally, I believe that we'll go on and get a couple of arms for the bullpen and not much else.

The only way we're going to get a front line pitcher is to trade one of the three stud kids, IMO. And best case scenario would be to tie Danny Graves to that deal.

I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying that that's the read I have on this front office.

They placed a lot of value on Wilson's work ethic and his importance in setting an example in the clubhouse, concepts that are always discounted as nearly meaningless and worth very little around here. But I guarantee you that DanO sold that line hard to Allen and Lindner. That's what those two want to hear. Slow, steady, conservative movement. The antithesis of Bowdens years.

That's the Reds front office. Not a swashbuckling shoot from the hip style. More like a traditional CPA's approach. Reduce risk, it's hammered you before, don't let it happen again.

In the end, it stifles creativity and squashes any hope of daring or innovative moves. But it keeps the plodding, steady, conservative, mediocrity machine bumbling forward like a herd of turtles.

DanO still has plenty of time to put a few more pieces together, and I'm sure he'll do something. But I don't see this organization rolling the dice on a big name free agent.

[Redmachine2003]

I think the Wilson signing is a pretty good signing. With Hudson and Claussen both coming of arm injuries, I think Wilson is a great mentor for them. He has great work habbits and he be through everything these kids are going to go through. Wilson will give you 15-20 quality starts a year but when he goes bad he is bad. He will have four really bad starts a year and give up like 20 some runs in 15 innings which keeps him from having a 3. something era. But Wilson has improve every year since he came back from his arm trouble and who is to say he won't continue to improve.