Strike out = to any other out?

[MWM]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

HOWEVER, I will say this, that fundamentally sound hitters don't necessarily "consciously" have to make the adjustments.

That's a complete contradiction to what you said earlier regarding "timely" hitting.

And there's no way in hell that a hitter who isn't sound "funamentally" will ever be able to hit major league pitching, let alone put up numbers by the age of 24 that few in the history of the game have been able to do.

To me, the fundamentals of hitting are 1) don't swing at bad pitches. 2) when you see good pitches, hit those pitches hard. Adam Dunn does bothe of those extremely well, especially considering he was learning on a full time basis off major league pitchers at the age of 21.

You seem to be complaning that he's not Tony Gwynn and Mark McGwire all wrapped into one player. That's like a stranger walking up and handing you $100 and you complaining that you were hoping for $150.

As for your RISP stats, since those are only based on ONE season we're really only talking about 34 hits spread over the various situations. The .318 is the only one that would really catch my eye - the others for that small a sample size could just be expected variance.

How many actual hits/ABs make up that .318?

Wait a second here. you're using these very statistics to make value judgements on Adm Dunn as a player. Now you're screaming small sample size when the data I list clearly shows a contradiction to your premise. And do you seriously want to consider what a player does in a very small amount of his ABs when he's 22 or 23 to project what he's going to do over his entire career? Are you suggesting that players at the 22,23 years old are a finished product?

[MWM]

Well BF, you said you like SLG and you also said you like good "situational" hitters. Over the last three years, in 241 ABs (294 PAs), Adam Dunn has a .515 SLG in close and late situations.

[BadFundamentals]

First, regarding the RISP (just did a quick look) but for our Dunn example - his trend in previous years is the same for (SLG vs. SLG w RISP) as with BA.

I think BA is fine though for RISP - sure a 2B or HR would be better but I'm settling for any hit when guys are in scoring postion. I'd rather have more hits in more RISP situations than fewer but bigger hits.

Raisor, I looked at RC again. I'll have to look at it more and think it through. I like hitting attributes for a given PLAYER in their own buckets. I like SLG and OBP better independently than combined into OPS at the player level. Although, for whole teams/leagues etc. nothing beats OPS for those macro discussions/studies).

Looks like RC takes the "combining" to a whole different level.

[TRF]

And here is where i break somewhat from my fellow jedi.


Do I want Adam Dunn hitting .215?

hell no.

If Dunn is hitting .215, then the percentage of HR's per AB has to skyrocket for him to stay in the range we all want him in. Also he can take only so many walks, but i figure he'll top out around 120 a year. His OBP will look a lot better if he isn't hitting .215. But I like Dunn in the .265 range. 150+ hits coupled with 100+ walks. 46 of his hits were HR's.

Honestly, I can't find fault with his game. He's progressing and putting up numbers the game has rarely seen in a guy his age. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hit .280 next season. Certainly umpires alread know Dunn does not swing at bad pitches. You say Dunn gets caught looking a lot. I see borderline pitches called his way all the time.

Fact of the matter is he could be the best offensive player the Reds have ever had by the end of his career.

[BadFundamentals]

Originally Posted by MWM

And there's no way in hell that a hitter who isn't sound "funamentally" will ever be able to hit major league pitching

- - - -
Now you're screaming small sample size when the data I list clearly shows a contradiction to your premise.

MWM, that's it for me for tonite - enjoyed the well reasoned/civil debate


Regarding "fundamentally sound" - in "relative" sense. Yes all big league hitters have some level of the fundamentals - talking about the finer points.

I'm not "screaming small sample size" just pointing out that ONE season RISP stats are small to begin with - slicing them then 5 ways.....even smaller. I hammer Adam for RISP because he's been consistently bad 4 years in a row. That suggest something more than just expected variances/chance etc.......

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Raisor, I looked at RC again. I'll have to look at it more and think it through. I like hitting attributes for a given PLAYER in their own buckets. I like SLG and OBP better independently than combined into OPS at the player level. Although, for whole teams/leagues etc. nothing beats OPS for those macro discussions/studies).

Looks like RC takes the "combining" to a whole different level.

While you're thinking about it. Here's a few more facts about RC.

The average difference between actual runs and Runs Created per team is +/- 26.76 runs. That's 0.165 runs per game or one run per ever 6.05 games. Pretty insignificant variance.

I think it's been posted in this thread once already, but just in case, here's the formula:

RC Runs created
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)
RC27 Runs created per 27 outs (Estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score)

It takes into account alot of things we've been talking about in this thread: Sacrifices, double plays, SB/CS and what comes out in the end is a stat that as close to 100% accurate as we've gotten so far, as far as I know.

This is a stat that makes comparing players a breeze, IMO.

[BadFundamentals]

I dumped the last 10 years of National league Team offensive data into database/spreadsheet and ran some correlation numbers. As has been posted, OBP, SLG and OPS all have strong correlations to Runs Scored.

OBP = .862
SLG = .865
OPS = .915

Ks are not significantly correlated when tested in this manner.

I'm still looking at some other relationships related to Ks and K Rates as they relate to Runs Scored but in the meantime, thought I would post something else I found interesting.

I ran OPS against WINS for the above mentioned sample. Granted following the Reds we all know how important pitching is to winning games, but still, I was surprised to find out that although definitely correlated, OPS and WINS are only correlated at a .526 level. (r coefficient)

Any statisicians please feel free to correct, but as I understand it that means there is roughly a 50% correlation with 25% expected variance between OPS and WINS.

I'm intending to load the database/spreadsheet with the Pitching data ASAP. Anyone who would like a spreadsheet/Access Database of this data once loaded with pitching (or as is without pitching) just private message me and I'll email it to you.

Fields included at present are: Year, Team, Runs, Runs/G, G, AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SO, BA, OBP, SLG, SB, CS, W, L, OPS

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Ks are not significantly correlated when tested in this manner.

Let me know when you're ready to say you were wrong....