RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion Strike out = to any other out?

12-18-2004, 08:15 PM   #226
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MWM I have no idea what this means, and I've had a good amount of statistical training. It seems like he's saying that if you take a team's POP and line it up with wins, there isn't any correlation. It has nothing to do with OPS. OPS wouldn't be involved at all. If I looked an independent variable and found that it only correlated by a factor of .283, I'd throw it out as well.
I think that IS what he is saying. What I was saying is that in the background if OPS is NOT held constant then he's comparing different POPs to Wins but the different OPS levels of the teams are driving the results and smothering any relatively more subtle impact of POP.

12-18-2004, 08:19 PM   #227
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals I think that IS what he is saying. What I was saying is that in the background if OPS is NOT held constant then he's comparing different POPs to Wins but the different OPS levels of the teams are driving the results and smothering any relatively more subtle impact of POP.
So what you're saying is that OPS drives runs scored and things like productive outs have a very small (subtle) impact on runs?
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12-18-2004, 08:23 PM   #228
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals As an example, in your list look at Twins and Giants (similar Total Bases) but significantly different Runs Scored and Ks. Those TWO teams would support the theory that MORE Ks = LESS Runs. However, something like that was the exception. I couldn't find any significant QUANTIFIABLE correlation on a whole.
You said that, not me.
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12-18-2004, 08:23 PM   #229
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MWM I asked this before and didn't get an answer. If a player comes up in the fifth inning of a 5 run blowout with 2 outs and a man on second, that counts toward his BA with RISP. Yet, if he comes up with none on and no outs in the 9th inning of a tie game, it doesn't get recorded in "RISP." How do you reconcile that, BF?
I agree that is a shortcoming of the RISP stat. On a whole I DO like the RISP stat though because I've always bought into the baseball cliche "Winning is about good defense, solid pitching and TIMELY hitting". I believe in the "timely". And if not getting the "timely" then better at least get productive outs or be able to give self up in sacrafice when situation demands it.

 12-18-2004, 08:23 PM #230 MWM Pre-tty, pre-tty good!!     Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,306 Re: Strike out = to any other out? BTW, I still don't know what you're talking about with this "holding OPS constant" stuff. __________________ Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
 12-18-2004, 08:25 PM #231 BadFundamentals Member   Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 833 Re: Strike out = to any other out? ha ha.... I smell you're trying to corner me. I did say those things - I didn't say "very small" though ! ! ! How about subtle/situational? etc..etc......but we also know that the difference between winning and losing in anything is often the little things.
12-18-2004, 08:27 PM   #232
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals I agree that is a shortcoming of the RISP stat. On a whole I DO like the RISP stat though because I've always bought into the baseball cliche "Winning is about good defense, solid pitching and TIMELY hitting". I believe in the "timely". And if not getting the "timely" then better at least get productive outs or be able to give self up in sacrafice when situation demands it.
That whole idea hinges on the notion that hitting is somehow different under different situations, and it really isn't. There are VERY LIMITED things guys can do in certain situations to increase the chance of a single run scoring. But those situations don't happen that often and I'm still not convinced the players have much control over it. In other words, I don't think "timely" hitting is a discernable skill you can identify in a player. Hitting is so reactionary based solely on physics, that it's pretty much impossible to try to hit certain balls one way and other balls another.
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12-18-2004, 08:29 PM   #233
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MWM BTW, I still don't know what you're talking about with this "holding OPS constant" stuff.
I'm saying when comparing Ks to Runs scored or POP to Wins, hold the sample teams OPS constant. Use test teams with similar total OPS. That way you are "better" measuring the impact of JUST the Ks or JUST the POP..........still lots of other fluctuating variables but at a minimum, hold the OPS constant.

(you're better isolating "types of outs")

12-18-2004, 08:31 PM   #234
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MWM That whole idea hinges on the notion that hitting is somehow different under different situations, and it really isn't.

That may be the crux of our conceptual differences. I contend that hitting is dramatically different in different situations. And not just hitting, PITCHING too. ! ! !

12-18-2004, 08:33 PM   #235
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals ha ha.... I smell you're trying to corner me. I did say those things - I didn't say "very small" though ! ! ! How about subtle/situational? etc..etc......but we also know that the difference between winning and losing in anything is often the little things.
You're still stuck on the idea that runs only count late in games when it's close. No one's denying that in some individual games, it's nice to have the ability to get a run in at a particular juncture of the game. But you need to realize, and I don't think you have yet, that the key is to score more runs over the course of the entire game, and scoring lots of runs throughout the entire game is the best way to do that.
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Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

12-18-2004, 08:48 PM   #236
Steve4192
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals I agree that is a shortcoming of the RISP stat. On a whole I DO like the RISP stat though because I've always bought into the baseball cliche "Winning is about good defense, solid pitching and TIMELY hitting". I believe in the "timely".
Adam Dunn 2004 - Close & Late Situations:

323 BA, 417 OBP, 720 SLG, 1137 OPS

Is that what you mean by 'timely hitting'?

12-18-2004, 08:48 PM   #237
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BadFundamentals That may be the crux of our conceptual differences. I contend that hitting is dramatically different in different situations.
Professional hitters might be good, but they aren't good enough to change the way they are going to hit based on all kinds of situations. Remember, these balls are coming at 90+ MPH. The hitters have no idea if it's going to be high, low, straight, curvy, inside, outside, etc... And then they have to determine not only whether or not they are going to swing, but they then have to execute that swing on the exact plane the ball is coming in at. And they have less than a half second to go through this entire proces. Now you're trying to tell me that taken all these variables that they can decide all this AND add a factor for the situation? I'm not buying it. Hiting is almost ALL instinct.

The only thing a player can do to really change his approach at the plate is to shorten his swing to make sure he makes contact. The problem with this is that most of the time they're going to make an out in trying to "just make contact." That might be OK in certain situations where any ball in play will result in a win. But the times any individual hitter comes to the plate in that particular situation is so rare that it shouldn't even be a factor in evaluating a player's contribution. And even in that situation, I'm still not convinced they aren't better off just hitting like they normally do. And I'm also not convinced that this is something they can just do at will successfully to the point that it represents a discernable skill.

The only other thing a hitter can do is to adjust their swing to try to pull it or hit it to the opposite field. And just like shortening the swing, the situation where this is needed is so rare that it doesn't really matter. And also like above, I'm still not sure this is something that "should" be attempted in that situation.

There are players who can't handle pressure. I don't doubt that. But those guys probably aren't going to last long in the majors anyway. I think it's BCubb who has said that he believes "clutch" is just the absence of choke. I tend to agree with that notion.
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Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

12-18-2004, 08:50 PM   #238
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MWM You're still stuck on the idea that runs only count late in games when it's close. No one's denying that in some individual games, it's nice to have the ability to get a run in at a particular juncture of the game. But you need to realize, and I don't think you have yet, that the key is to score more runs over the course of the entire game, and scoring lots of runs throughout the entire game is the best way to do that.
I do realize that. And that's why a team with huge offensive talent (relative to other teams) will score lots of runs and win lots of games regardless of any stikeouts, productive outs etc...But I'm a Reds fan. I've accepted the shoestring budget. Reds aren't going to out-talent teams top to bottom. Reds will need to score enough runs to stay in the game but then count on doing little things to squeeze out wins.

Remember in 2003 when the Reds shocked baseball by being near the top at All Star Break? Remember all the walk off homers? 1 run game wins.....?.....

 12-18-2004, 08:57 PM #239 MWM Pre-tty, pre-tty good!!     Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,306 Re: Strike out = to any other out? Riddle me this. How do you explain the following splits for Dunn in 2004? With runners on base, his split was .265/.423/.527/.950 With RISP .239/.438/.514/.952 On second base only .237/.517/.316/.833 On first and second .318/.424/.636/1.070 RISP w/ 2 out .264/.459/.556/1.015 What do you make of the fact that there's such a discrepancy between runners on 2nd as opposed to runners on 1st and 2nd? How can that be? What is it about the "situation" of having a runner being on first base that all of the sudden makes him so much better than if a runner is only on second? Explain that one to me. Also, did you take a look at RISP with 2 outs? Why is that so different that his normal RISP numbers? Is there something about the situation that makes it easier to hit with 2 outs as opposed to 0 or 1 out? If all situations are so different to hit in, tell me what makes these situations so different. __________________ Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
12-18-2004, 08:59 PM   #240
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Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Steve4192 Adam Dunn 2004 - Close & Late Situations: 323 BA, 417 OBP, 720 SLG, 1137 OPS Is that what you mean by 'timely hitting'?

I haven't posted this in a long time and I'll ONLY do it because you made me do it.

Code:
```Year	BA	BA with RISP
2004	0.266	0.239
2003	0.215	0.170
2002	0.249	0.208
2001	0.262	0.203```
That's an average of .43 points LOWER in rbi situations than an already low batting average.

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