Strike out = to any other out?

[BadFundamentals]

TRF, I addressed your OBP point in this post (below). I would be curious about your response to this if you care to.

(not meaning any animosity with any of this...........I would be curious about your response to below.


Relatively worse, because (except in an extreme case <missed third strike> ) a K has no chance of moving up runners - other outs do.

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

"walks" then are bad for a pitcher and good for offense ( raises OBP etc....leads to runs) ok
"strikeouts" are good for a pitcher and bad for offense ( lowers OBP ...leads to less runs)

to benefit from OBP runners have to be "moved up" and scored. K is relatively worse than other outs because they don't move runners.

[SteelSD]

However, there are just too many other factors at work which also impact Runs Scored to draw any direct correlation between Ks and Runs for an offense.

And with that one passage, you just contradicted everything nasty you've ever said about Adam Dunn.

Well, at least that's one mission accomplished.

[BadFundamentals]

That was a nice piece of handy work to extract that out of my passage. Out of context it suggests something different than intended but nonetheless, nice handy work to feed that back to me............

I'll throw you an "olive branch" for a peace offering..................

Originally Posted by SteelSD

And with that one passage, you just contradicted everything nasty you've ever said about Adam Dunn.

Well, at least that's one mission accomplished.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

TRF, I addressed your OBP point in this post (below). I would be curious about your response to this if you care to.

(not meaning any animosity with any of this...........I would be curious about your response to below.


Relatively worse, because (except in an extreme case <missed third strike> ) a K has no chance of moving up runners - other outs do.

again apples and oranges.

pitchers that K a lot of batters also do not walk a lot of batters. for the most part.

If AD walks, hits a HR, and K's three times, is that a good game? he just went 1-4, his BA was .250, but his OBP was .400.

You are are taking what a pitcher does to an entire team and comparing it to what an individual hitter does to a pitcher.

apples and oranges.

and while that strikeout didn't advance a runner, it also kept them out of an inning ending DP.

[SteelSD]

Relatively worse, because (except in an extreme case <missed third strike> ) a K has no chance of moving up runners - other outs do.

A Strikeout also has no chance of causing a Double Play. There were 3784 baserunners erased in 2004 because of balls hit into play. Excluding Outs of choice (Sac Bunts), there were 3977 Runners advanced by balls hit into play in 2004 using ESPN's "Productive Outs" tracking.

Considering that losing a baserunner to a Double Play is actually a far worse event than any other Out event (due to the nature of causing BOTH an Out AND erasing a base), your contention that Strikeouts are far worse events than Outs created on balls hit into play is a non-starter. Also, considering the fact that many runners advanced on non-K Outs would have scored from their original basepath positions on the following event, it's a wash at best.

Example:

Sean Casey produced 18 "Productive Outs" in 2004. He erased 16 Runners already on base by hitting into Double Plays. Considering that those 16 GIDP erased gains already posted AND knowing that Outs are more valuable than bases, what we're left with is net negative event value.

Simply put, the Outs and Bases erased by Casey's GIDP's were more valuable to the Reds than the random bases gained by Out-event balls hit into play.

[MWM]

Also, walks advance runners in many cases without sacrificing an out.

[TRF]

MWM....

i agree completely. with everything you said.

[westofyou]

BPA--Bases per plate appearance.

The formula is (TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
2004
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
STRIKEOUTS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

BPA                             BPA      PA      OUTS     RC/G      SO       AVG    
1    Adam Dunn                  .636      681      426     2.92       94    -.004   
2    Sean Casey                 .548      633      408     2.29      -61     .054   
3    Ryan Freel                 .488      592      390     0.14       -5     .008   
4    Jason LaRue                .472      445      306     -.32       35    -.018   
5    D'Angelo Jimenez           .458      652      438     -.20       -5     .000   


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1950-2004

BPA                           YEAR     BPA      PA      OUTS     RC/G      SO       AVG    
1    Joe Morgan               1976     .728      599      344     7.10      -17     .057   
2    Eric Davis               1987     .719      562      350     4.55       61     .024   
3    Eric Davis               1986     .717      487      320     3.57       34     .016   
4    Kal Daniels              1987     .699      430      260     5.37        8     .065   
5    Joe Morgan               1975     .692      639      354     6.61       -8     .062   
6    Frank Robinson           1962     .660      701      428     5.19      -19     .071   
7    Ted Kluszewski           1954     .660      659      405     4.74      -22     .052   
8    Frank Robinson           1961     .657      636      397     4.39       -8     .053   
9    Reggie Sanders           1995     .656      567      363     3.49       37     .035   
10   Joe Morgan               1974     .648      641      387     4.36        2     .031   
11   Bernie Carbo             1970     .643      467      266     5.05       24     .043   
12   Barry Larkin             1996     .641      627      400     3.31      -43     .028   
13   George Foster            1977     .637      689      447     3.80       24     .051   
14   Adam Dunn                2004     .636      681      426     2.92       94    -.004   
15   Frank Robinson           1960     .633      562      357     3.87        0     .034   
16   Joe Morgan               1973     .632      698      443     3.37      -20     .027   
17   Ron Gant                 1995     .626      493      322     2.49       33     .005   
18   Joe Morgan               1977     .623      645      391     3.52      -15     .019

[M2]

WOY, next thing you're going to tell me is that in 1977 George Foster (who turns out to be the closest BPPA equivalent for Dunn's 2004) did something special.

[BadFundamentals]

Some good points there....very good. And some good numbers. And comparing the value added of moving up runners with the "risk" of losing value through a double play I think is also a fair comparison.

We have to go back to the original pecking order.

We agree that strikeouts and a high strikeout rate are good for a pitcher and relatively better outs than flyouts, groundouts etc...(taken on a whole). The question then is: Is there enough to be gained from "the double play" (or the groundout) on a large scale to say that it is a better out on a whole than the strikeout?

The key lies in that pecking order: K > GO > FO > LO etc. ... The double play and any other intangibles would need to be factored in here. If after factoring in intangibles we still say that on a large scale we like the K as the best out for the pitcher (defense). Then it would have to be true that on a large scale the K is the worst out for a hitter (offense).

Originally Posted by SteelSD

A Strikeout also has no chance of causing a Double Play. There were 3784 baserunners erased in 2004 because of balls hit into play. Excluding Outs of choice (Sac Bunts), there were 3977 Runners advanced by balls hit into play in 2004 using ESPN's "Productive Outs" tracking.

Considering that losing a baserunner to a Double Play is actually a far worse event than any other Out event (due to the nature of causing BOTH an Out AND erasing a base), your contention that Strikeouts are far worse events than Outs created on balls hit into play is a non-starter. Also, considering the fact that many runners advanced on non-K Outs would have scored from their original basepath positions on the following event, it's a wash at best.

Example:

Sean Casey produced 18 "Productive Outs" in 2004. He erased 16 Runners already on base by hitting into Double Plays. Considering that those 16 GIDP erased gains already posted AND knowing that Outs are more valuable than bases, what we're left with is net negative event value.

Simply put, the Outs and Bases erased by Casey's GIDP's were more valuable to the Reds than the random bases gained by Out-event balls hit into play.

[ochre]

We agree that strikeouts and a high strikeout rate are good for a pitcher and relatively better outs than flyouts, groundouts etc...(taken on a whole). The question then is: Is there enough to be gained from "the double play" (or the groundout) on a large scale to say that it is a better out on a whole than the strikeout?

not really. We agree that SOs can indicate that a pitcher is good. Good pitchers usually perform well. When evaluating them as outs they are really just part of the 27 that a pitcher needs to get per game. Odd isn't it?

[TRF]

10-12 stikeouts for a pitcher in a single game is indicative of how well he pitched.

10 K's indicates the following:

• at least 4 innings pitched but likely 6-8 innings
• 10 out's were recorded by the pitcher
• 10 times the opposing hitters failed to reach base
• Those K's are also indicative of how effective that pitcher was. 10K's 6-8 IP will likely reveal a low opponent score.

3K's for a batter indicates 3 outs. It doesn't indicate a single thing about how he did other than he made three outs.

[Red Heeler]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

Some good points there....very good. And some good numbers. And comparing the value added of moving up runners with the "risk" of losing value through a double play I think is also a fair comparison.

We have to go back to the original pecking order.

We agree that strikeouts and a high strikeout rate are good for a pitcher and relatively better outs than flyouts, groundouts etc...(taken on a whole). The question then is: Is there enough to be gained from "the double play" (or the groundout) on a large scale to say that it is a better out on a whole than the strikeout?

The key lies in that pecking order: K > GO > FO > LO etc. ... The double play and any other intangibles would need to be factored in here. If after factoring in intangibles we still say that on a large scale we like the K as the best out for the pitcher (defense). Then it would have to be true that on a large scale the K is the worst out for a hitter (offense).

Not true at all. All outs are equal from a pitcher's standpoint as well. In any given game, there are 27 outs that a pitcher needs to get. His success in any one game depends upon getting those 27 outs without giving up enough baserunners to allow a bunch of runs to score. How those outs are recorded has little basis on the number of runs scored.

On the other hand, a high K/9 with a low BB/9 is an indicator of the SUSTAINABILITY of a pitcher's success. A pitcher who K's few, gives up a lot of walks, and allows a lot of homeruns can luck into a good season occasionally if a lot of the balls he allows in play go toward a fielder. However, the chances of him repeating such success is little.

[BadFundamentals]

ok then....well let's try it this way, forget the strikeout.

You get 10 hits and 5 walks in a game (and 27 outs).

Scenario #1 = All 27 outs are infield popouts
Scenario #2 = All 27 outs are deep flyouts to right field

Which scenario can be expected to yield more runs? Clearly it would NOT be Scenario #1. They "may" yield the same number of run but if one would yield more it would clearly be Scenario #2.

If you accept this, then we can say that a deep flyout to right is a relatively better out for a hitter than an infield popout (not a stretch). This proves all outs are not equal. It only remains to determine a hierarchy of the relative worth of outs.

Bringing back the strikeout now for the moment. Effectively, infield popouts and strikeouts are equal. Neither has a chance of advancing runners and neither results in double plays. Based on above, a Strikeout is worse than a deep flyout to right.

Originally Posted by Red Heeler

Not true at all. All outs are equal from a pitcher's standpoint as well. In any given game, there are 27 outs that a pitcher needs to get. His success in any one game depends upon getting those 27 outs without giving up enough baserunners to allow a bunch of runs to score. How those outs are recorded has little basis on the number of runs scored.

On the other hand, a high K/9 with a low BB/9 is an indicator of the SUSTAINABILITY of a pitcher's success. A pitcher who K's few, gives up a lot of walks, and allows a lot of homeruns can luck into a good season occasionally if a lot of the balls he allows in play go toward a fielder. However, the chances of him repeating such success is little.

[wheels]

wow.