Reds trade Dustin Moseley for Ramon Ortiz

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by MWM

tr, I don't believe that this trade really helps the rotation, even a little. I don't see him being any better than Corey Lidle was this year, so I don't view this as an improvement. See the stats Stormy put regarding his last two years as a starter.

I've seen the stats, also read every post on this thread. We've come to different conclusions based on the available data. I expect Ortiz to post an ERA somewhere in the mid 4s, give up 25-30 HRs (although that is the number with the most variance, I imagine), have about a 1.40 WHIP, and about 6 Ks per 9. Do you think there were any options we had before the trade that would post those types of numbers going out there every fifth day? Obviously, my numbers could be optimisitic from your point of view, but they are in line with his career numbers.

Also, I do not agree with your "hurting the long-term" conclusion. Moseley may or may not ever be an average major league starting pitcher and this acquisition is within this year's and next year's budget. It is a short-term deal. Not a great one, not a bad one, I think a little teeny little bit of a positive move for the 2005 Cincinnati Reds.

Just make sure to remind me of all this in the game threads this summer when Ortiz has given up four homers in the first inning

[zombie-a-go-go]

Stop making sense, lgj.

[traderumor]

I've seen this stated several times, but considering what "best" means with regards to our best pitching prospects, I wouldn't consider Moseley to be one of the overall top prospects, but a middling prospect at best in the context of the overall prospect market. Thus, an average Major League pitcher in return for a possible future average Major League pitcher is about the expected return. It's a matter of wanting your average Major Leaguer now or in 2007.

[M2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Even the 3 little pigs had to move from a straw house to a stick house before they could build one of brick.

Moral of the story was the was the straw and stick houses weren't such good ideas. FWIW, I consider this another strawhouse move. What you've got is a lot people saying "Well, it is shelter." Meanwhile I'm sitting here thinking about what's going to happen when the wolf comes.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by M2

Moral of the story was the was the straw and stick houses weren't such good ideas. FWIW, I consider this another strawhouse move. What you've got is a lot people saying "Well, it is shelter." Meanwhile I'm sitting here thinking about what's going to happen when the wolf comes.

Yep, but in this case the Reds have been sleeping in the open air.

And what does it matter if the wolf comes?

They already know he's coming.

[MWM]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I've seen the stats, also read every post on this thread. We've come to different conclusions based on the available data. I expect Ortiz to post an ERA somewhere in the mid 4s, give up 25-30 HRs (although that is the number with the most variance, I imagine), have about a 1.40 WHIP, and about 6 Ks per 9. Do you think there were any options we had before the trade that would post those types of numbers going out there every fifth day? Obviously, my numbers could be optimisitic from your point of view, but they are in line with his career numbers.

That's the jist of our disagreement. You're much more optimistic of what Ortiz will produce.

[M2]

lollipop, Ortiz scores a 99 for ERA+ for his career, just a hair below league average.

Though Stormy touched upon the problem with taking that number at face value. Ortiz has crashed and burned as a starter the past two seasons. He had an 82 ERA+ in 2003 and, while I don't have his ERA+ as a starter for last season, he had a 5.47 ERA against a park-adjusted league average of 4.59 (not to mention an .875 OPS against as a starter). So he'd have probably been around an 85 ERA+ for his rotation work in 2004.

Thanks to his relief work he came out with a 104 ERA+ for the season, but, much like Jimmy Haynes in 2002 (ERA+ 107), his peripherals indicate that ERA should have been higher and that it probably will rise this season.

On a separate note, nice to see DanO acknowledge that Moseley wasn't going to be a factor until at least 2006. If he's capable of recognizing the longer timeline associated with pitching development on a consistent basis then he can take his foot off the gas pedal of the team's pitching promotion policy. That should lead to better performances across the board, leading to better trade bait in the offseason and better brand name recognition for the Reds' farm system. Sounds like he might only be a step away.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by MWM

That's the jist of our disagreement. You're much more optimistic of what Ortiz will produce.

One thing I noticed is that according to BP factors on baseball-reference.com, GABP favors pitchers more than Edison Field. GABP has a factor of 92 while Edison is 99, with 100 being neutral and >100 favors batters and vice versa for <100. Anyone else have some park factors to consider?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by traderumor

One thing I noticed is that according to BP factors on baseball-reference.com, GABP favors pitchers more than Edison Field. GABP has a factor of 92 while Edison is 99, with 100 being neutral and >100 favors batters and vice versa for <100. Anyone else have some park factors to consider?

Edison 2002-2003 was a 96 LHB and 101 RHB park - 98 average - with a 92 average in Runs scored (scored best fielding 86)

That's from the Billl James Handbook last year (new one ain't here yet)

[M2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Yep, but in this case the Reds have been sleeping in the open air.

And what does it matter if the wolf comes?

They already know he's coming.

That's why you start buying bricks. Maybe you don't get the house completed by the time the wolf shows up on opening day, but the strawhouse isn't any different than sleeping in the open air. Survive as best you can, keep building with bricks and then someday when the wolf shows you'll be warming your hocks from the barcalounger in front of your fireplace.

If you really needed some straw there's always the Jamey Wrights and Ron Villones of the world.

[westofyou]

Mosley is probably just a stick as opposed to a brick...... strawmen like Wright and Villone (who was offered arb) would elicit equal comparisons to chaft here as well.

[M2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Mosley is probably just a stick as opposed to a brick...... strawmen like Wright and Villone (who was offered arb) would elicit equal comparisons to chaft here as well.

I don't care about Moseley, not one little bit.

And cheaper guys like Wright and Villone (who unfortunately got counted as a reliever and not a starter on the free agent compensation lists) would have left some cash around to go brick shopping.

I expected the Reds to bring in some chaft just to get through the 2005 season. The sin is they've spent a premium on chaft, blocking the door to better moves in the coming weeks and months.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by M2

That's why you start buying bricks. Maybe you don't get the house completed by the time the wolf shows up on opening day, but the strawhouse isn't any different than sleeping in the open air. Survive as best you can, keep building with bricks and then someday when the wolf shows you'll be warming your hocks from the barcalounger in front of your fireplace.

If you really needed some straw there's always the Jamey Wrights and Ron Villones of the world.

But the three little pigs have looked at the bricks and their checkbook and decided they can only afford to make bricks themselves instead of buying bricks that someone else made. Then, they only had enough to get sticks, which is better than the open air and the strawhouse that they lived in before. Not much better, and certainly not strong enough to withstand the wolf (playoffs), but a little stronger than the one they had before. But those bricks can be hard to come by, and they're just learning how to make them, so for now, its sticks, straw or open air.

[M2]

Originally Posted by traderumor

But the three little pigs have looked at the bricks and their checkbook and decided they can only afford to make bricks themselves instead of buying bricks that someone else made. Then, they only had enough to get sticks, which is better than the open air and the strawhouse that they lived in before. Not much better, and certainly not strong enough to withstand the wolf (playoffs), but a little stronger than the one they had before. But those bricks can be hard to come by, and they're just learning how to make them, so for now, its sticks, straw or open air.

My wolf is the regular season. That's when the guys with the bats show up and start trying to dismantle what you've built.

And $8M is $8M. Make it work. Are you going to sit there and tell me no one's going to emerge from this offseason with a good pitcher who costs less than $8M? Of course you're not. We haven't even hit arbitration filings yet, who knows what that's going to shake loose. Who knows what some team unhappy with the way the offseason has shaped up will be willing to trade in January and February. If the Reds made that decision then that's a case of having the wrong people in charge.

I don't want the Reds run by folks who toss up their hands and say, "Well, we can't do any better." I want it run by folks who roll up their sleeves and say, "Well, we've got to do better."

[OldXOhio]

Who's to say the excess cash would have been used to go brick shopping? The three little pigs may have decided to invest their added wealth in other ventures besides their real property.