Grade the offseason.

[redsfan30]

Just want to throw my two cents in.

The perception going around that the "stat geeks" would say I knew these moves would work if they do win is the farthest thing from the truth. I am not a stat happy person. Never have been. I enjoy reading the different stats that West of You posts. They are interesting, it's just not my cup of tea. Just because I choose not to make my season prediction based on a "theryom" does not mean I do not respect the opinions of those that do. You guys are very stand up people and just the same way would not rub it in everyone's faces should they lose this year.

Please don't let a few trolls make you think that we ("optimists") don't respect you and take what you are saying in high regard. That is not the case at all.

The one thing that I would have to say gets under my skin about the numbers game is sometimes the way it's presented. It's just that sometimes it seems that you guys act like you know what is going to happen based on the numbers. The fact is nobody knows what is going to happen. NOBODY. I don't, the stat heads don't. That's my big complaint.

Just don't think that the optimists don't respect what you do and how you think.

Maybe this should be another thread, but I suggest some of the more outspoken naysayers give a couple examples of teams that they think had good offseasons. Do you seriously think that teams that paid all that money for older pitchers (Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Leiter) and mediocre pitchers (Lowe, Benson, Benitez) makes Milton seem that bad? Are you gonna say that Perez is gonna have a full season with his nice ERA, Jaret Wright pull another great year out of nowhere? Yes, I would have liked Pavano and Russ Ortiz, but they have their weaknesses, too. Yeah, Milton's HRs scare me. But looking at his other stats and the situation he was at in Philly, I'm willing to write off some of the overpayment. Keyword, SOME. I could go through the rest, but I'd like to see how y'all would like to put their offseason IN CONTEXT with the rest of the league's offseason.

[SteelSD]

I love it....the Reds do nothing, people complain because they're doing nothing (I was a big advocate there)

The Reds spend some money, make some moves to upgrade the team as a whole, by addressing their needs with major-league talent and people complain

Again, that's a dramatic oversimplification.

In fact, the majority of the folks who were scratching their heads about whether or not O'Brien could do something wouldn't have been anything but happy and bright eyed had Dan O'Brien made better moves.

That's the problem with that kind of thinking, Matt. It's the quality of the moves- not the quantity and not the money spent- that folks have issues with.

Make quality moves, get quality responses. That's all that's needed. Making moves just to make moves doesn't elicit a "hip-hip-hooray! they're TRYING!!" from me. Yeah. Hampster on a treadmill is "trying" too. He's just not getting anywhere.

Seems that a lot of folks are being grumped at for not being impressed with the hampster for running in circles.

I can tell you this and I can tell you this with all certainty- if Dan O'Brien had a real quality 2004 draft followed by a real quality 2004 offseason there'd be nothing but sunshine and flowers from the folks who are being grumped at right now.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by notredymade

Maybe this should be another thread, but I suggest some of the more outspoken naysayers give a couple examples of teams that they think had good offseasons. .

I thought the A's had an outstanding offseason, given that they pretty much had to unload Hudson and Mulder.

I thought the Fish did a great job, and I'm probably going to pick them in the NL East when I do my predictions later in the spring.

[SteelSD]

I could go through the rest, but I'd like to see how y'all would like to put their offseason IN CONTEXT with the rest of the league's offseason.

A bunch of teams started the offseason well ahead of the Reds in regards to talent and performance, particularly on the pitching side. A bunch of teams finished the offseason still well ahead of the Reds in regards to talent and performance, particularly on the pitching side. The Reds had more work to do than other teams and didn't get it done even though many other teams lost components yet still hold better odds of making postseason play than the Reds do. There's your context.

A team's offseason isn't judged by what other teams do. It's judged by what that team does.

[Matt700wlw]

And you can't fully judge the offseason until you see how things play out

Speculate, Yes...judge, no.

[Boss-Hog]

Matt, you and a few others praising the Reds in this thread were some of the bigger 'complainers' who always wanted the Reds to do SOMETHING...that's strictly my opinion from reading this board for a long time. Well, the Reds did SOMETHING this past offseason, and I'm glad that these moves make you happy. However, if, by some small chance, these moves don't amount to more than incremental improvement, (i.e. finishing 18 games behind the first place team instead of 20) or an even worse fate, perhaps then you'll learn the difference between doing SOMETHING and doing something well.

[Falls City Beer]

Marlins had a good offseason.

I'm one of, like, two people who likes the Mets' signing of Pedro.

A's had a solid offseason.

Red Sox are better for having signed Clement (though they got stupid with Renteria).

[westofyou]

It's just that sometimes it seems that you guys act like you know what is going to happen based on the numbers.

I don't know what's going to happen, but looking at the numbers and culling information from them is just like playing blackjack, if you pay attention to trends, history and remember what the cards were that have played you can "guess" where the hands will go. And sometimes... just sometimes you can us that to your advantage.

It's what props up the insurance business and other things in this world.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Marlins had a good offseason.

I'm one of, like, two people who likes the Mets' signing of Pedro.

My boss is a huge Mets fan, and doesn't like the Pedro signing because of the money involved, given his age, and injury risk

Sounds like the same thing Reds fans are debating -- so who's really to say who had the better offsesason?

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I don't know what's going to happen, but looking at the numbers and culling information from them is just like playing blackjack, if you pay attention to trends, history and remember what the cards were that have played you can "guess" where the hands will go. And sometimes... just sometimes you can us that to your advantage.

It's what props up the insurance business and other things in this world.

Stats give you an idea and something to base an argument on, or something to look at to get an idea of what COULD happen....but that's really about it

I don't get all wrapped up in them, but that's just me.

Stats can be padded...

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

And you can't fully judge the offseason until you see how things play out

Speculate, Yes...judge, no.

I don't judge decisions based on results. I judge them based on their merit (ie. the probability of said decision working out).

Anything else is pure hindsight.

Hitting on a blackjack hand of 18 while the dealer has a 6 showing isn't a good decision even if you flop a 3.

If you've seen a player do that and hit 21, you sure don't say to yourself, "Wow. Was that SMART!". You say, "Wow. Was that dumb. Lucky, but dumb!"

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

My boss is a huge Mets fan, and doesn't like the Pedro signing because of the money involved, given his age, and injury risk

Sounds like the same thing Reds fans are debating -- so who's really to say who had the better offsesason?

Honestly, even given Pedro's age, I'd much rather be debating the intelligence of the Reds' signing Martinez versus Milton.

[westofyou]

Stats can be padded...

Stats are the naked truth. Opinions are the push up bra of the sports world.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

I don't judge decisions based on results. I judge them based on their merit (ie. the probability of said decision working out).

Anything else is pure hindsight.

Hitting on a blackjack hand of 18 while the dealer has a 6 showing isn't a good decision even if you flop a 3.

If you've seen a player do that and hit 21, you sure don't say to yourself, "Wow. Was that SMART!". You say, "Wow. Was that dumb. Lucky, but dumb!"

So if this sub-par offseason happens to lead to a playoff spot...it's still a bad offseason?