Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

[BadFundamentals]

So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!

This will be a funny thread when it is brought back up in about a month.

[2001MUgrad]

Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.

[forfreelin04]

No it can't be true!!!! Situational hitting does exist? Strikeouts do matter? Blasephemy BadFundamentals! How dare you remember how the game is played instead of checking your stat sheet first?

[rdiersin]

Look at the Reds 2004, KC 2003. It will catch up with them, unless they make changes. The Pythag is very accurate when taken over the whole season.

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4192

July 5, 2005
Can Of Corn
Pythag and the Nats

At the exact midpoint of the current season, the profoundly surprising Washington Nationals held a five-and-a-half game lead in the NL East and were on pace for an even 100 wins. As surprising and impressive as that might be, the real oddity about this team is that, if trends hold, they'll win 100 games and a division title despite a run differential of -2. Calling such a confluence of events "historically unprecedented" would be to indulge in understatement of criminal proportions.

Since 1900, 90 teams have won at least 100 games in a season. Those 90 teams had an average run differential of +214.9. The worst run differential by a 100-win team belongs to the 2004 Yankees, who finished with a +89 mark. Only two other teams, the '69 Mets and '70 Reds, have posted run differentials of worse than +100 while still winning 100 games for the season. If the Nats were able to reach the century mark in victories while burdened by a negative run differential it would be, suffice it to say, stretching the depth and breadth of improbability.

The Nats are certainly overperforming to date, but it's a bit facile to say their success is merely the product of good fortune. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest that the team's meager run differential isn't indicative of its genuine, long-term quality. To wit, Washington has a strong and properly deployed bullpen, and they've been exceptional at home. Let's take these one at a time …

Much has been made of the fact that the Nationals have been outstanding this year in one-run games (22-7 on the season). In many analytical circles, success or failure under such circumstances is often dismissed as a matter of luck. However, if a team makes a habit of giving high-leverage innings to its best relievers (and, by extension, low-leverage outings to its worst relievers), they can thrive in one-run contests and, hence, exceed the various Pythagorean-inspired projections. In D.C.'s case, their four top relievers all rank in the top 50 for Relievers' Expected Wins Added (REWA). Also, those four relievers--Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Hector Carrasco and Gary Majewski--have worked almost two-thirds of the team's total bullpen innings. Now here's how they fare in terms of leverage:

Pitcher        IP       R/G   REWA Rank   Leverage (Rank on Team)*
Cordero       44.1     1.62      1             1.97 (1)
Ayala         48.0     3.38     13             1.49 (2)
Carrasco      29.0     1.86     37             1.22 (3)
Majewski      35.1     3.57     49             1.15 (4)

* - Among Washington relievers with at least 20 IP

As you can see, manager Frank Robinson is deploying his relievers in exact accordance with their REWA rank--that's to say, the best relievers are working the most critical innings. That they've also thrived in nip-and-tuck affairs is no accident. When you have four relievers the quality of those above and you're using them in critical situations, you're going to have a strong record in one-run games.

There's also the matter of the club's success in home games. At the halfway point, the Nats' record at RFK was 29-10, which comes to a winning percentage of .744. That puts them on pace for 60 home wins this season, which would mean this year's Nats model would tie the eighth-best single-season home-win total of all-time. Here's the full list:


Rank Team Home Wins
1. '61 Yankees 65
2. '75 Reds 64
3. '32 Yankees 62
3. '98 Yankees 62
5. '46 Red Sox 61
5. '49 Red Sox 61
5. '62 Giants 61
8. '31 A's 60
8. '42 Cardinals 60
8. '53 Dodgers 60
8. '69 Orioles 60
8. '77 Phillies 60

Of the 12 teams listed, nine exceeded their Pythagorean records for the season, and they bettered those forecasts by a cumulative 47 games. All of this has at least some bearing on the Nationals' troubling run differential. Of Washington's 29 home wins in 2005, only two have come in extra innings or in walk-off fashion. That means in 27 games this season, the Nats haven't batted in the ninth inning. In other words, that's 81 outs they didn't get to use. Teams that are especially potent at home sometimes fall short of their expected records because they don't have as many opportunities to score runs. That's borne out in Washington's underwhelming Pythagorean record.

The Nats have certainly benefited from good fortune this season, but their run differential can partially be explained by some of the team's unique qualities. They have a strong bullpen that's properly deployed, and they excel at home. They're over-performing, to be sure. However, the extreme second-half regression you might expect based on their run differential probably won't come to pass. Summarily speaking, the Nats are worse than their record but much better than their run differential.

As for how the NL East will play out, it's far from decided. In the second half, the Braves will get back from the DL 60% of their Opening Day rotation and Chipper Jones. So it'll be an onerous task for the Nats to hold off the 13-time champs. However, if you're tempted to dismiss Washington because they've given up more runs than they've allowed, don't do it.

Dayn Perry is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Dayn by clicking here or click here to see Dayn's other articles.

[BadFundamentals]

Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad

Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.

They just showed a quote from JimmyB that they were prepared to make any deals that would help their team make playoffs. I think they will. They flashed to Jimmy up in the press box and he was standing/pacing watching every play. It occurred to me I've watched just about every game televised this year on Extra Innings and I haven't once seen DannyO at a game....(???)......

[BadFundamentals]

Originally Posted by rdiersin

Look at the Reds 2004, KC 2003. It will catch up with them, unless they make changes. The Pythag is very accurate when taken over the whole season.

Yes, I remember all too well the Reds 2004 and in fact 2003 as well. Of course with the Reds at the critical times in June when they needed to acquire some arms they sat pat. Jimmy will make some moves.

Meanwhile Guillen takes outside letter high pitch from pedro and lines it to right to drive in 2 (a middle of the order hitter "going with the pitch"?? do you believe it?) and put Nats up 3-0. Guillen 3-3 on the night. Yes, Jose Guillen, Cincinnati Reds 2003.

[KronoRed]

They won't make any deals, the Nationals owner won't add payroll, it's the same stuff Jim Bo said when he was here..fluff fluff fluff.

I do have a picture of Dan O at a game though

[RFS62]

I had no idea that Raisor invented the Pythag

Who knew?

[Raisor]

Let's see...

30 major league teams.

20 teams (66%) within 2 games of expected w/l record
27 teams (90%) within 4 games of expected w/l record
3 teams 5 or more games (+/-) away from expected w/l record.

Even WITH the Nats (+9) and the Diamond Backs (+7), the average deviation is only +/-2.2 wins.

I'll take that...

[2001MUgrad]

Originally Posted by BadFundamentals

They just showed a quote from JimmyB that they were prepared to make any deals that would help their team make playoffs. I think they will. They flashed to Jimmy up in the press box and he was standing/pacing watching every play. It occurred to me I've watched just about every game televised this year on Extra Innings and I haven't once seen DannyO at a game....(???)......

I hope they do. I like Jimbo. But, also isn't that good for the REDS if the Nats do good since they own a share of the team right now?? If the Nats were to go to the playoffs or even better it should increase the $$ they could get for it.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by RFS62

I had no idea that Raisor invented the Pythag

Who knew?

I won one of my three Nobel Peace Prizes for my work on the Pythag thm of baseball.

[BadFundamentals]

First year in new park? Nah....nats will do something to help themself.

In fact, on record right now with these two predictions in stone:
1. Nats make move of significance before 7/31 and
2. Seriously with apologies to those of you who he is your fave player, Dunn with Astros by 7/31.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Raisor, but there is not quantitative component in your formula for a guy like Jose Guillen who not only has talent but plays angry and directs that anger towards WINNING. Add Wilkerson, Johnson and an angry Frank Robinson to that mix......who knows?

And now Danny Graves come on to pitch. About to become a blowout.

[KronoRed]

The nats owner is the other 29 teams, they don't care about anything cept profit, add payroll? I doubt it.