Arizona Fall League Report 10/4 - Nelson, Denorfia & Howard in action

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by tbball10

doc scott, do you know why votto does not play much? how is playing time distributed in the AFL?

Yes, I do. Apparently Votto is one of several Solar Sox players on the "taxi squad". Taxi squadders are available to play only on Wednesday and Saturday. Why it's Votto who's earned that designation (does he work part-time the other days?) and why taxi squads even exist, I have no idea.

Apparently the Reds wanted to send Votto (their best offensive prospect now that EdE's in the bigs) to the AFL to face some higher-level pitching, but didn't want to bump anyone else from their squad- you know, the future hammer closers, Jose Vidro Jr., Luke "Wild Thing" Hudson, a slap-hitting catcher who gets totally ignored by hype because of Miguel "Juan Bench" Perez, and the fourth outfielder auditionee.

I'm being mean. I root for everyone. I do. But why the Reds thought getting three to five at-bats a week was the best way for Joey to spend his offseason- I'm at a loss.

[M2]

I'm not a big fan of Hudson's stuff. The fastball is too true and the curve infrequently hits the strikezone.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by M2

I'm not a big fan of Hudson's stuff. The fastball is too true and the curve infrequently hits the strikezone.

Hudson's 2005 stuff was not what we'd seen in other years from him. His fastball was generally around 92 MPH and peaking at 94. That's Aaron Harang territory. Remember his major league debut vs the Astros (I think) and he threw one inning and was wild as all get out but he did strike out the side. He threw 96 effortlessly then. Along with his loss of velocity went a lot of movement. I was very high on him coming into this year and hoped he'd stay healthy and continue his work towards "control". Neither happened and now that he's pushing thirty and he can't seem to stay healthy for an entire year and control continues to elude him, I'm ready to cut bait.

[Aronchis]

Hudson's arms strength was weak last year. In 2004 his fastball was was topping at 94-95 even touching 96 quite a bit, last year it dropped to 91-92 occassionally hitting 93. I think this was due to his shoulder "infection" earlier that spring. It caused him to be more hittable which with his shoddy control impailed him. If he gets his arm strength back up, he may become serviceable again like in 04, but I kind of doubt it.

[Doc. Scott]

10/13: Mesa comes back to surprise Surprise, 7-5. The Solar Sox come back from a 5-1 deficit with two in the sixth, three in the seventh, and a final tally in the eighth. Chris Denorfia kicks off Mesa's sixth-inning rally with a single and run scored. Chris would draw a walk and score again the next inning. In the eighth, after a Kevin Howard single put runners on the corners with none out, Denorfia managed a fielder's choice grounder to bring in the final Sox run. Former Reds farmhand John Koronka notched the save. Denorfia is now batting .308 (although he made his second error on a throw) and leads the club with nine RBIs, while Howard's at .278.

Mesa will cue it up again today at 1:05 PST against the Peoria Saguaros, with the Indians' Adam Miller on the hill.

[M2]

Forget about 2005, I've NEVER liked Hudson's stuff. The heater's always been rail straight and he doesn't control the bender well. The guy was incredibly lucky in 2004 and his 2005 fall from grace was just about the easiest prediction you could have made.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by M2

Forget about 2005, I've NEVER liked Hudson's stuff. The heater's always been rail straight and he doesn't control the bender well. The guy was incredibly lucky in 2004 and his 2005 fall from grace was just about the easiest prediction you could have made.

Could a decent pitching coach make an adjustment to get more movement on Hudson's fastball? Perhaps holding it a bit different or something like that or is he doomed to have a straight fastball?

[Doc. Scott]

Most of my premise for pushing Hudson as a possible reliever come from watching him pitch great for the first two or three innings of a start, then implode suddenly before making it to five innings. Lacking reliable offspeed stuff, he makes it through the lineup once but has to nibble or gets hit when batters realize they can sit on the fastball if the curve isn't working perfectly.

Seems to me like an ideal case, and when the alternatives for those middle relief spots include the Ricky Stones and Randy Keislers of the world, why not try a Hudson or Jason Standridge, a guy with some degree of stuff-based upside, and see if they can stick to the Wall of Velcro?

Even with a lights-out spring, I don't think Hudson should be a legitimate rotation contender. I simply wouldn't spend the time to seriously consider him there, not when we have so many other unproven or Purple Heart guys to be evaluating.

[M2]

Hudson's MO is that he's really bad on pitches 1-15, then really good on pitches 16-45, then he's horrible after that. If he didn't have to get through those first 15 pitches, I'd see some value in counting on him in the pen. Given his profile I don't seen much use for him beyond long reliever and my question there is can he be rubber-armed enough to pull three multi-inning stints a week when the need arises? I suspect he can't.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Chip R

Could a decent pitching coach make an adjustment to get more movement on Hudson's fastball? Perhaps holding it a bit different or something like that or is he doomed to have a straight fastball?

Anything could happen. It's just that after eight years in organized baseball I'm not real optimistic that it will happen.

Hudson needs to become a different animal immediately or he needs to be onto his next organization. Such is the life of an ineffective journeyman.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by M2

Hudson's MO is that he's really bad on pitches 1-15, then really good on pitches 16-45, then he's horrible after that. If he didn't have to get through those first 15 pitches, I'd see some value in counting on him in the pen. Given his profile I don't seen much use for him beyond long reliever and my question there is can he be rubber-armed enough to pull three multi-inning stints a week when the need arises? I suspect he can't.

Hmmm. You mean to tell me observational data can be wrong? Well, soo-ey. But it's true for Hudson's entire nascent career that he's sucked the first fifteen pitches he throws.

I wonder if that can't be overcome with coaching, though. Hudson's subsequent fall from dominance after pitch 45 more reflects his stuff problems we've been discussing in this thread. But perhaps having him work on the bullpen role and mindset (maybe some Zig Ziglar cassettes), a role he hasn't ever really been in professionally, might help mitigate the historical first-inning issues.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

I wonder if that can't be overcome with coaching, though. Hudson's subsequent fall from dominance after pitch 45 more reflects his stuff problems we've been discussing in this thread. But perhaps having him work on the bullpen role and mindset, something he's never really done professionally, might help mitigate the historical first-inning issues.

Maybe, but if he can't make that jump this spring then I'd let some other organization try to fix him. I don't see him as being worth a lot of time and effort at this point. If my pitching coach insisted otherwise I'd inform him that he'd better be confident that this is likely to succeed or he's going to find his job evaluation partially tied to Hudson's results.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by M2

Maybe, but if he can't make that jump this spring then I'd let some other organization try to fix him. I don't see him as being worth a lot of time and effort at this point. If my pitching coach insisted otherwise I'd inform him that he'd better be confident that this is likely to succeed or he's going to find his job evaluation partially tied to Hudson's results.

Don't forget the power of positive thinking brought on by Zig's powerful oratory.

Tying my job to the drag-ass employee's results? Crappy thing to do, but a great motivator, no?

[Aronchis]

I watched a Hudson game late in 04 against the Braves, his fastball had fine movement and was going between 93-96 consistantly though he was wild as usual in his 5 innings.

I think weak arm strength due to his shoulder problems earlier in the spring really screwed up Hudson. He may never be the same either. Whether he makes the the Reds or not probably depends if he is back to 2004 arm strength levels and popping 95mph fastballs. He actually wouldn't be a bad option at the 4-5 spots if he has rebuilt his arm strength considering the competiton he is facing.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

I watched a Hudson game late in 04 against the Braves, his fastball had fine movement and was going between 93-96 consistantly though he was wild as usual in his 5 innings.

I think weak arm strength due to his shoulder problems earlier in the spring really screwed up Hudson. He may never be the same either. Whether he makes the the Reds or not probably depends if he is back to 2004 arm strength levels and popping 95mph fastballs. He actually wouldn't be a bad option at the 4-5 spots if he has rebuilt his arm strength considering the competiton he is facing.

Maybe it was moving that one night, but he's notoriously straight as an arrow. And since his 2004 was a mirage (bad pitching wrapped in a good ERA) he'd be a terrible 4-5 option seeing that he's not equipped to do the job. If the Reds bring this guy back in the rotation then they're even more incompetent than I thought they were.