Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

[RedsIn07]

I think it might be an interesting conversation, make your decision and give reasoning for each, whether it's due to his performance last year or the coddle/challenge approach.

Some releavant info:
2005:

W L  ERA  G GS CG SHO SV  IP  H  R  ER HR BB  SO 
8 4 4.43 28 21  0  0  0 103.2 89 64 51  5 62 125

Weighted Park Factors
Posted by Cyclone in the ORG:

Team	         R   	 H   	 2B      HR      BB      SO
Cincinnati	 1.02 	 1.00 	 1.04 	 1.16 	 0.96 	 1.02
Louisville	 1.05 	 1.01 	 0.97 	 0.89 	 1.01 	 0.84
Chattanooga	 1.17 	 1.13 	 1.03 	 1.21 	 1.13 	 1.02
Sarasota	 0.94 	 0.95 	 1.06 	 0.61 	 1.09 	 1.02 
Dayton	 	 1.05 	 0.98 	 0.84 	 1.04 	 0.87 	 0.86

[Ravenlord]

Sarasota.

[reds44]

MLB!!!!!!!!!!!



I went with the Noog.

[KronoRed]

Sarasota

Take it SLOW.

[fourrunhomer]

I say Sarasota to start out. If he is progressing well, Then move him to AA mid season. Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do not move this kid up too quickly and ruin him just because there is noone else. How often have the Reds done that the past 10 years?!

[StillFunkyB]

Sarasota, the whole year.

[NJReds]

I don't care where he is as long as he starts and they quit using him in tandem situations.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by StillFunkyB

Sarasota, the whole year.

I totally agree with you. He didn't exactly dominate at Dayton. He should not be moved any higher than Sarasota this year. He still has a lot to work on before advancing.

[captainmorgan07]

sarasota see how he does then if he deserves to be moved up to AA send him up we dont' need anymore brian reith disasters on our hands

[KoryMac5]

Sarasota and if he is overpowering than move him to double A Chattanooga. Be a nice reward for a great year. Definitely something for him to build on and look forward too.

[deltachi8]

3rd barstool from the right at Moe's

or Sarasota, you pick the homer

[StillFunkyB]

I really don't want to see HB anywhere near Cincinnati until Sept. 2008.

[paulrichjr]

Top 100 MLB prospects for '06: 91-100
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Dayn Perry / FOXSports.com
Posted: 7 hours ago



It's that time of year.

With the calendar flipped and the 2006 season sorta, kinda upon us, it's time to roll out our annual top 100 prospects list.
First, some parameters … No player who's previously exhausted his rookie status is eligible (i.e., no B.J. Upton or Felix Hernandez), and we're not including major league-ready imports like Kenji Johjima.

This week, we kick things off with numbers 91 through 100.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5220744

91. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, Age 21
Acquired: 1st round, 2004, La Grange HS (La Grange, TX)

Another in a long lineage of raw, fire-balling Texas right-handers, Bailey sports a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that wows scouts. The problem right now (as it is with most young hard throwers) is that his off-speed stuff leaves much to be desired. He's going to need that third pitch if he's to succeed as a starter at the highest level. The Reds are handling him carefully in terms of workload, which is a point in his favor, but he struggled badly with his control last season in the Midwest League. If Bailey stays healthy, harnesses his stuff and cultivates a deeper repertoire, he'll be a special pitcher. But those are a lot of "ifs."

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4686
January 4, 2006
Breakout Prospects
Good Bets to Step Up in 2006

by Bryan Smith

Homer Bailey – SP – Cincinnati Reds – 20 (A+)

Level     IP     ERA     H/9     K/9     BB/9     HR/9     G/F
A-      103.2    4.43   7.73    10.85    5.38     0.43     1.06

A year later, I’m still confused that the Brewers drafted Mark Rogers before Bailey. There had been a consensus among scouts that Bailey had better stuff, poise and control. This season, as many expected, Rogers struggled mightily, walking 70 in 98.2 innings.

What we didn’t see coming, however, was control problems for Bailey. The Texan right-hander had been praised for his control in high school, as he walked less than 20 hitters during his senior season. However, this year he walked 62 batters in 103.2 innings. Furthermore, only six times Bailey gave up less than two walks. His presence on this list is predicated on the belief that with more experience and maturity, Homer’s control will improve.

Even if there is not a significant improvement in control, Bailey could become a dominant reliever. His two-pitch combination ranks among the best in the minor leagues. He also gives up very few home runs--just 5 all season. In fact, in his last 12 appearances (spanning 45 innings), Bailey did not allow a single long ball. If control prevents a future in starting, you can bet he is the closer of the Reds future.

However, it’s way too early to begin giving up on the notion of Bailey as a starter. At times, he can be dominant, and may have just reacted negatively to being coddled in 2005. The Reds will likely give Bailey a little more room to grow in 2006, and as a result, he should start to blossom.

[The_jbh]

Originally Posted by StillFunkyB

Sarasota, the whole year.

I dont really think you can go in with the mentality with any player. What happens if Homer goes through a half season of utterly dominating Single A? You still keep him where he isn't challenged? Personally i say sarasota until atleast June. If he is doing EXTREMELY well push him... if not leave him in Sarasota for another 2 months. If he is still posting sub 4 era, i give him a month or 2 Chattanooga otherwise keep him in Sarasota.


And I don't mind the tandem. I dont want to see any labrums or TJs on homer. We can't afford another gruler/howington/Basham/Pauly/Aramboles/etc.....