Ken Rosenthal's latest on Kearns/Westbrook

[Strikes Out Looking]

According to him, it's a bad deal for the tribe!

The Indians still would like to add a corner outfielder between now and the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Right-hander Jake Westbrook probably would have been too high a price for Reds outfielder Austin Kearns. Westbrook, 28, has worked more than 210 innings each of the past two seasons and is signed for $10 million over the next two. Kearns, 25, has yet to put together a full season of production ...

[MattyHo4Life]

I have to agree with him. As I've said before I just think most Reds fans overvalue Kearns. Most teams are interested in Kearns because of his potential, but nobody is going to give much for him.

[Superdude]

<<<<<<<<<<Most teams are interested in Kearns because of his potential, but nobody is going to give much for him.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

That's why we shouldn't trade him.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Superdude

That's why we shouldn't trade him.

Exactly.

Ask for a lot or keep him, no rush to deal him for junk we already have

[RANDY IN INDY]

Amen, to that, Krono.

[lollipopcurve]

Time will tell if Westbrook would have been too much to pay. As WOY has often said, you pay for future production, not past production.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by Superdude

<<<<<<<<<<Most teams are interested in Kearns because of his potential, but nobody is going to give much for him.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

That's why we shouldn't trade him.

The problem is that he may never live up to that potential. Kearns value is down because he has struggled the last couple of years. If other GMs thought he was a sure thing, then they would be making big offers for him. A lot of players have potential, but most of them never live up to that potential.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Exactly.

Ask for a lot or keep him, no rush to deal him for junk we already have

How many Reds pitchers are better than Westbrook?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

The problem is that he may never live up to that potential. Kearns value is down because he has struggled the last couple of years. If other GMs thought he was a sure thing, then they would be making big offers for him. A lot of players have potential, but most of them never live up to that potential.

True, his prior path Kaline, McReynolds is in danger of becoming Tom Brunansky or even worse Phil Plantier.

However what's so freaking special about Westbrook? He's had one decent season that looks as though it was somewhat lucky too...Kent Bottenfield lucky or good pitcher lucky?

2004-2005

YEAR TEAM         AGE W   L   PCT   G    GS  CG  SV  GF  IP     H    R    ER   BB   SO    ERA  RSAA
2004 Indians      26  14   9  .609   33  30   5   0   2  215.2  208   95   81   61  116   3.38   28 
2005 Indians      27  15  15  .500   34  34   2   0   0  210.2  218  121  105   56  119   4.49   -9 
     TOTALS           29  24  .547   67  64   7   0   2  426.1  426  216  186  117  235   3.93   19 
     LG AVERAGE       24  24  .502            2   0      426.1  441  231  213  151  299   4.50    0 

YEAR TEAM          HR  H/9   BR/9  SO/9  BB/9  SO/BB SHO WP  IBB HBP BFP   BK  NW  NL
2004 Indians       19  8.68 11.43  4.84  2.55  1.90   1   4   3   5   895  1  15   8 
2005 Indians       19  9.31 12.00  5.08  2.39  2.13   0   3   3   7   895  0  14  16 
     TOTALS        38  8.99 11.72  4.96  2.47  2.01   1   7   6  12  1790  1  29  24 
     LG AVERAGE    53  9.32 12.89  6.31  3.18  1.98   1  15  10  18  1846  2

[dougdirt]

MattyMo4life, I say for sure Harang and Claussen. Maybe Williams, have to see how he reacts to this park and this defense.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

How many Reds pitchers are better than Westbrook?

Harang for sure.

I'm not impressed with his win totals, his other numbers frighten me, I think in GAB he gets beat all over the place.

[kbrake]

If Kearns is only getting Westbrook now what will he be worth after another season like last? This team has plenty of offense, it would hurt a lot more to miss a good Westbrook season then a good Kearns season.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Harang for sure.

I'm not impressed with his win totals, his other numbers frighten me, I think in GAB he gets beat all over the place.

I agree that Harang is easily better than Westbrook. I don't think the Reds have another Starter that is better than him. So the Reds would be recieving the second best pitcher on their staff for a player that has struggled for the last two years.

I'm not impressed with Westbrook either, but Kearns hasn't done much to impress anybody the last two years.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by kbrake

If Kearns is only getting Westbrook now what will he be worth after another season like last? This team has plenty of offense, it would hurt a lot more to miss a good Westbrook season then a good Kearns season.

I don't think the Reds would get anythign for him if he had another season like last year. He'll be a year away from Free Agency, and nobody would even trade Westbrook for him.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by kbrake

If Kearns is only getting Westbrook now what will he be worth after another season like last? This team has plenty of offense, it would hurt a lot more to miss a good Westbrook season then a good Kearns season.

From a year ago:

Jake Westbrook and the Indians today agreed to a two year deal with a club option for the 2007 season. The deal guarantees Jake $2.9M in 2005, $4.25M in 2006, and there is a club option for 2007 worth $5.6M. There is a buyout for $350,000, and there are plenty of escalator clauses. The total guarantee is $7.5M over two seasons.

This team doesn't have plenty of money and they sure need to not pay players for something they aren't.

Westbrook has a back loaded contract and that's part of the reason they want to move him... because paying for average shouldn't cost more than what you're getting in return.

So essentially it's a crapshoot of 2.4 extra million doallars this season, 4.25 for Jake with buyouts and an option to sign the guy for 2007 at 5.6 million vs 1.85 for Kearns with the opportunity to control his destiny as a player for 2 more years.

It looks like a sucker bet to me, Westbrook could improve but his cost will escalate and in 2008 he's off the books. But then again he could suck and by teh end of the year with buyouts and such you end up spending 3 million extra bucks for something that wasn't worth the cost or the body it took to get him.