Pecota?

[M2]

Looks like BP's got the PECOTA forecasts up.

Anyone feel like sharing the Reds' projections?

[westofyou]

Last	First	Year	TM	LG	AGE	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	EqERA	EqH9	EqBB9	EqSO9	EqHR9	VORP	WXRL	Break	Improve	Collapse	Attrition


Harang	Aaron	2006	CIN	MLB	28	11	11	0	31	31	196.3	201	55	142	24	43%	.292	15	1.30	4.19	4.48	4.28	9.1	2.3	6.0	1.1	23.4	3.9	13%	58%	10%	2%
Coffey	Todd	2006	CIN	MLB	25	3	4	4	70	0	76.0	82	18	44	7	51%	.298	-4	1.32	3.97	4.21	4.34	9.6	2.0	4.8	0.8	11.7	0.8	35%	54%	12%	12%
Claussen	2006	CIN	MLB	27	9	11	0	29	27	163.0	171	57	117	24	40%	.292	9	1.40	4.69	5.04	4.82	9.3	2.9	5.9	1.3	11.2	2.3	19%	55%	10%	1%
Milton	Eric	2006	CIN	MLB	30	9	12	0	32	28	171.3	184	50	111	29	37%	.285	4	1.36	4.83	5.11	4.97	9.5	2.4	5.3	1.5	9.5	2.2	44%	78%	7%	5%
Williams	2006	CIN	MLB	27	7	10	0	31	23	140.7	149	53	95	20	43%	.291	3	1.44	4.83	5.15	5.04	9.4	3.1	5.6	1.3	7.2	1.7	14%	48%	16%	2%
Germano	Justin	2006	CIN	MLB	23	7	10	0	29	22	139.7	153	41	92	20	46%	.299	7	1.38	4.81	5.00	4.94	9.7	2.4	5.5	1.2	6.8	1.6	21%	68%	1%	0%
Weathers	2006	CIN	MLB	36	3	4	7	57	0	64.7	66	25	47	7	50%	.295	-7	1.41	4.34	4.68	4.98	9.1	3.2	5.9	1.0	5.8	0.5	19%	37%	36%	20%
Burns	Mike	2006	CIN	MLB	27	2	3	3	47	1	49.3	49	14	35	7	43%	.278	-2	1.27	4.20	4.45	4.78	8.9	2.3	5.9	1.3	5.2	0.5	48%	71%	17%	39%
Wagner	Ryan	2006	CIN	MLB	23	2	3	2	40	1	49.7	51	22	40	4	55%	.311	4	1.45	4.24	4.53	4.82	9.0	3.6	6.7	0.7	5.0	0.4	34%	60%	10%	31%
Belisle	Matt	2006	CIN	MLB	26	3	4	2	48	3	70.7	77	25	45	8	53%	.304	-5	1.43	4.57	4.77	4.99	9.6	2.9	5.3	0.9	4.5	0.5	33%	60%	10%	15%
Mercker	Kent	2006	CIN	MLB	38	2	2	2	39	0	36.3	38	14	27	5	44%	.294	-7	1.42	4.41	4.85	4.66	9.3	3.2	6.2	1.2	3.7	0.3	10%	19%	61%	29%
Bailey	Homer	2006	CIN	MLB	20	5	8	0	26	18	108.3	98	76	101	11	46%	.292	11	1.61	5.02	5.30	5.26	8.1	5.8	7.7	0.9	2.4	0.9	45%	78%	7%	0%
Shackelford	2006	CIN	MLB	29	1	2	1	46	0	36.0	39	17	22	5	48%	.296	-15	1.55	5.02	5.51	5.86	9.7	3.8	5.1	1.2	0.7	0.0	13%	27%	49%	41%
Wilson	Paul	2006	CIN	MLB	33	5	8	0	30	17	112.7	128	37	67	18	43%	.297	-6	1.46	5.23	5.50	5.67	10.1	2.8	4.9	1.4	0.6	0.7	13%	42%	26%	9%
Hancock	Josh	2006	CIN	MLB	28	2	3	1	29	4	49.0	55	17	28	7	46%	.298	-13	1.47	5.14	5.38	6.48	10.0	2.9	4.7	1.2	0.5	0.1	18%	39%	32%	41%
Guevara	Carlos	2006	CIN	MLB	24	2	3	1	27	4	51.7	55	25	41	10	43%	.292	-4	1.54	5.30	5.99	5.35	9.4	4.0	6.5	1.7	-0.1	0.1	11%	44%	21%	18%
Graman	Alex	2006	CIN	MLB	28	4	6	0	28	12	82.3	86	42	61	11	47%	.299	-3	1.56	5.25	5.53	5.50	9.3	4.3	6.1	1.2	-0.4	0.4	18%	48%	16%	1%
Ramirez		2006	CIN	MLB	23	7	10	0	38	25	141.0	168	36	74	23	48%	.304	-4	1.45	5.26	5.56	5.41	10.6	2.1	4.3	1.4	-0.5	0.8	20%	64%	2%	0%
Simpson	Allan	2006	CIN	MLB	28	2	3	1	46	2	47.7	47	33	46	7	39%	.302	-3	1.67	5.51	5.93	5.95	8.7	5.7	8.0	1.3	-1.2	-0.1	26%	50%	23%	22%
Hudson	Luke	2006	CIN	MLB	29	4	7	0	30	13	89.3	94	43	60	14	40%	.287	-8	1.54	5.42	5.74	6.01	9.4	4.0	5.6	1.4	-1.3	0.3	16%	44%	27%	18%
Gardner	Richie	2006	CIN	MLB	24	5	9	0	27	19	119.0	137	43	67	16	55%	.303	-3	1.50	5.41	5.54	5.66	10.2	3.0	4.6	1.2	-3.6	0.4	16%	52%	11%	0%
Serrano	Elio	2006	CIN	MLB	27	2	4	0	24	5	51.0	60	20	33	12	41%	.295	-14	1.57	6.17	6.50	7.00	10.4	3.3	5.4	2.0	-3.9	-0.3	23%	50%	25%	27%
Standridge	2006	CIN	MLB	27	3	5	1	40	6	70.3	82	36	42	9	52%	.311	-14	1.66	5.62	6.02	5.87	10.3	4.2	4.9	1.1	-4.0	-0.2	16%	47%	34%	8%
Valentine	2006	CIN	MLB	26	2	3	1	45	2	47.3	50	37	38	9	39%	.296	-18	1.83	6.40	6.94	6.81	9.4	6.5	6.6	1.6	-5.1	-0.5	24%	52%	23%	19%
Chick	Travis	2006	CIN	MLB	22	5	10	0	24	22	121.7	132	59	84	24	38%	.286	-1	1.57	5.78	6.17	5.87	9.6	4.0	5.7	1.7	-5.7	0.3	25%	66%	5%	0%
Basham	Robert	2006	CIN	MLB	26	4	8	0	29	16	103.0	128	25	51	19	50%	.308	-9	1.49	5.73	6.03	6.01	11.0	2.0	4.1	1.6	-5.9	0.0	26%	61%	10%	1%
Nelson	Bubba	2006	CIN	MLB	24	2	4	1	28	4	52.3	62	26	34	11	39%	.301	-16	1.68	6.35	6.91	6.51	10.6	4.1	5.3	1.9	-5.9	-0.5	12%	44%	22%	11%
Hall	Josh	2006	CIN	MLB	25	5	9	0	26	19	114.7	133	50	64	16	51%	.305	-7	1.60	5.74	5.95	6.02	10.3	3.6	4.6	1.2	-7.6	0.0	26%	62%	5%	0%
Dumatrait	2006	CIN	MLB	24	5	9	0	26	20	111.3	118	76	73	13	50%	.299	-7	1.74	5.80	6.04	6.06	9.4	5.7	5.4	1.0	-8.0	-0.1	6%	31%	35%	1%
Kozlowski	2006	CIN	MLB	25	5	9	0	30	18	110.3	134	52	58	18	48%	.308	-13	1.68	6.05	6.52	6.28	10.8	3.9	4.3	1.5	-10.4	-0.3	15%	49%	17%	1%

Last	First	Year	TM	LVL	AGE	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	SPD	BA	OBP	SLG	MLVR	EqBA	EqOBP	EqSLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	Break	Improve	Collapse	Attrition

Dunn	Adam	2006	CIN	MLB	26	645	94	30	1	41	108	104	148	6	2	5.2	.263	.393	.558	.246	.264	.395	.566	.313	46.6	150-LF  -7	24%	67%	10%
Griffey	Ken	2006	CIN	MLB	36	503	67	25	1	29	88	58	90	1	1	4.2	.281	.367	.541	.204	.282	.369	.549	.299	34.7	119-CF -12	15%	38%	19%
Encarnacion	2006	CIN	MLB	23	534	70	30	1	22	75	47	97	8	3	5.1	.275	.344	.485	.089	.276	.345	.492	.277	26.2	125-3B   0	43%	63%	13%
Pena	Wily	2006	CIN	MLB	24	382	53	20	1	25	65	29	107	4	2	4.9	.282	.345	.558	.194	.283	.346	.566	.292	24.1	91-RF  -3	54%	70%	11%
Kearns	Austin	2006	CIN	MLB	26	459	62	27	2	21	69	53	100	3	1	4.9	.275	.367	.510	.156	.276	.368	.517	.292	22.4	109-RF   0	33%	66%	9%
Lopez	Felipe	2006	CIN	MLB	26	546	71	26	3	15	61	51	106	10	5	5.6	.265	.337	.427	-.007	.266	.338	.433	.260	21.7	128-SS  -7	24%	46%	21%
Aurilia	Rich	2006	CIN	MLB	34	389	45	20	1	9	46	31	59	2	1	4.5	.265	.327	.409	-.047	.266	.329	.415	.251	10.4	93-SS  -1	22%	47%	27%
Denorfia	2006	CIN	MLB	25	516	64	24	3	13	57	48	96	9	4	5.6	.262	.335	.413	-.030	.263	.336	.419	.256	10.2	121-CF  +2	20%	48%	28%
Larue	Jason	2006	CIN	MLB	32	333	33	17	1	12	42	28	77	1	1	3.6	.245	.326	.430	-.035	.246	.328	.437	.256	9.0	80-C   -2	16%	40%	30%
Valentin	2006	CIN	MLB	30	231	24	11	0	9	31	21	39	0	0	3.9	.253	.324	.441	-.019	.254	.325	.448	.257	8.0	57-C   -2	18%	40%	38%
Jimenez		2006	CIN	MLB	28	377	45	17	1	7	35	43	53	6	3	5.0	.250	.339	.371	-.086	.251	.340	.377	.247	7.4	90-2B  +1	31%	44%	25%
Freel	Ryan	2006	CIN	MLB	30	445	65	19	3	4	32	44	62	29	8	5.8	.259	.344	.351	-.098	.260	.345	.356	.251	6.1	106-2B  +2	5%	24%	34%
Menechino	2006	CIN	MLB	35	205	23	9	0	5	23	30	37	0	1	4.3	.242	.369	.381	-.027	.243	.371	.386	.263	5.6	52-2B   0	23%	52%	31%
Olmedo	Ranier	2006	CIN	MLB	25	242	29	10	1	2	20	15	40	6	2	5.5	.260	.312	.351	-.153	.261	.313	.356	.230	3.1	60-2B   0	35%	49%	28%
Romano	Jason	2006	CIN	MLB	27	346	41	21	2	7	37	19	59	6	2	5.9	.266	.311	.409	-.073	.267	.312	.415	.244	2.8	83-CF  -1	23%	43%	31%
Cruz	Jacob	2006	CIN	MLB	33	104	12	5	0	3	13	11	26	0	0	4.6	.254	.338	.425	-.016	.255	.339	.431	.260	1.3	29-RF  -2	22%	46%	35%
Bergolla	2006	CIN	MLB	23	448	51	21	2	2	32	23	49	16	4	5.6	.260	.302	.337	-.190	.261	.303	.342	.223	-0.1	106-2B  +1	22%	47%	26%
Votto	Joey	2006	CIN	MLB	22	483	54	24	1	15	56	49	124	4	2	4.0	.237	.318	.398	-.095	.238	.320	.404	.244	-3.3	114-1B  -1	21%	50%	28%
Hanigan	Ryan	2006	CIN	MLB	25	319	30	13	1	4	28	28	44	2	1	4.5	.244	.317	.332	-.179	.245	.318	.337	.225	-4.5	77-C    0	26%	38%	39%
Moran	Javon	2006	CIN	MLB	23	423	46	17	3	2	28	21	75	17	5	5.6	.258	.299	.327	-.210	.259	.300	.332	.219	-7.2	101-CF  +2	5%	23%	51%
Womack	Tony	2006	CIN	MLB	36	293	33	10	2	1	19	13	38	11	4	6.1	.247	.285	.305	-.270	.248	.286	.310	.205	-8.7	71-2B  -1	4%	18%	42%
Perez	Miguel	2006	CIN	MLB	22	304	25	11	1	4	24	15	67	4	2	4.5	.216	.262	.297	-.339	.217	.263	.302	.186	-11.9	74-C   +6	31%	49%	37%
Lee	Derrek	2006	CHN	MLB	30	663	101	38	2	38	112	76	116	12	4	5.3	.298	.383	.570	.281	.299	.384	.579	.312	51.0	154-1B  +8	12%	36%	21%

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by M2

Looks like BP's got the PECOTA forecasts up.

Anyone feel like sharing the Reds' projections?

Dunn - 41 homers, .263/.393/.558. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 24th most valuable player in the majors (including pitchers)

FeLo - 15 homers, .265/.337/.427 and 7 runs lost on defense. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 14th most valuable shortstop below the likes of Julio Lugo and Jose Reyes... (so basically, they're saying he's going to decline.

Harang - 11-11 with a 4.19 ERA, 196 IP

Dave Williams - 7-10 with a 4.83 ERA, 140 IP (they have him at about 12 runs less valuable than Sean Casey)

Claussen - 9-11 with a 4.69 ERA

It looks really bad for Wilson and Milton.

Edwin E - a line that looks a lot like Aaron Boone during his prime: .275/.344/.485

Austin: 459 plate appearances - .275/ .367 /.510 (I'd take that)

Griffey: 503 plate appearances, 29 homers .281 .367 .541

WilyMo: 382 plate appearances - .282/.345/.558

Freel: NOT GOOD (let's just say that Aurilia and D'Angelo Jimenez both have better lines)

The catchers: Big dropoff for Valentin, and slight one for LaRue

In general, the pitching looks bAAAAAD. The next best VORP to Harang is Todd Coffey, with a projected VORP of 11.7 runs above replacement level, and an ERA barely under 4.00.

[WVRed]

Since when did we pick up Derrek Lee?

[RFS62]

How close did last years Reds come to their Pecotas?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by RFS62

How close did last years Reds come to their Pecotas?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31356

[TC81190]

I'd take Eddies contribution close to that next year. FeLo, I'd like to see much much better.

[KronoRed]

They don't like Freel over there

[Big Klu]

When I saw the topic of this thread, I thought that the Reds had signed Bill Pecota to add to their burgeoning list of aging, underachieving second basemen.

[redsfanmia]

Now that we have these projections why play the season? We all now know how the players are going to perform.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by redsfanmia

Now that we have these projections why play the season? We all now know how the players are going to perform.

Of course it's not an exact science. Neither is predicting the weather, but that doesn't mean you don't make an effort. Accurately projecting future performance (or trying to) is an integral part of running a ballclub.

[marcshoe]

It's no wonder the projections are so bad; look at the players' ages! Claussen is 9, Williams is 7, and little Davey Weathers is only 3 years old!

Then you get to the position players and you find out that the Reds just gave a new contract to a 231-year-old backup catcher! And I won't even mention Old Man Denorfia.

But seriously folks, while two or three of these guys may do better than projected, I don't think it's any secret that the Reds cannot win with this staff.

[Falls City Beer]

Pecota's were pretty off the mark last year.

[Cooper]

Last year's pecota's may be off because of the park factor change for 2005 (iirc, 100 v. 116).

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Pecota's were pretty off the mark last year.

Do you mean the Reds or Pecota in general?

I thought they were pretty ON the mark, other than Kearns.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...5&postcount=15