Mario Picks a Pair of Standouts

[KittyDuran]

Originally Posted by gonelong

I agree with the control, I disagree with him not throwing hard.

The last game I saw Homer pitch in Dayton he consistently hit 94-95 on the scoreboard Radar, hit 96 a dozen times, and hit 97 the 5th inning to K a guy.

Either the Dayton scoreboard Radar is fibbing (possible), or that guy DOES throw hard.

GL

When the scoreboard radar was working...

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

It's my experience that in virtually every walk of life people see what they want to see.
It's not that I distrust Soto's assessment; it's that he's a captive audience.

Another way to look at Soto's endorsement (I did not take it as an assessment, as that involves a forecasting and valuation aspect) is that a guy I think of as one of the most intense competitors and with one of the best changeups a Reds pitcher has displayed likes what he sees of a 20 year old kid who has been criticised for not displaying a passion for the game and who needs work on his changeup to make it an average (or above-average) pitch.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

While I think it's true that Homer needs to be advanced with caution, I do think Soto's take is unadulterated and serves as a good window on what kind of stuff the kid has.

Uh-huh.

First Soto states that he doesn't know anything about these guys. Second, he claims to be able to tell very quickly who's good.

So with minimal observation and no history of seeing Bailey pitch to hitters, Soto determined that Homer Bailey was "really good". And which batters exactly did Soto see Bailey dominate? Um...hmn. Most likely none? Yeah. And you see that as an endorsement of Bailey's "stuff" and that it's evidence of Bailey being a guy the "Reds haven't had in a while"? And Soto said all that exactly where?

[lollipopcurve]

Uh-huh.

First Soto states that he doesn't know anything about these guys. Second, he claims to be able to tell very quickly who's good.

So with minimal observation and no history of seeing Bailey pitch to hitters, Soto determined that Homer Bailey was "really good". And which batters exactly did Soto see Bailey dominate? Um...hmn. Most likely none? Yeah. And you see that as an endorsement of Bailey's "stuff" and that it's evidence of Bailey being a guy the "Reds haven't had in a while"? And Soto said all that exactly where?

Gee, Steel, a little testy, are we?

Soto saw him throw off a mound in spring training. Most likely he saw lots of Reds pitchers do the same. He happened to single out Bailey and Coffey. What does this indicate? In my mind, that the kid has real good stuff. And when was the last time a 19-year-old came into spring training and made an impression? It's been a while. The usual comps for Bailey around here -- Gruler, Howington, etc., never did. No one is claiming Bailey is destined for major league stardom. All I'm doing -- to the usual catcalls of guys who want Bailey to fail, seemingly -- is opine that the kid has a special arm and that this is further anecdotal evidence to that end.

But I forgot -- we should trust what YOU say about Bailey, not Soto, right?

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I don't agree that the buzz around Homer is similar to what you had around Howington, Aramboles and Gruler. Everybody knew Bowden was PT Barnum.

Maybe Soto has spring fever, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he's been briefed on spin-generation, but I'm guessing he's just there to look at and mentor pitchers, not play media games. Scouts from every team saw Bailey last year -- nobody's depending on Mario Soto for an assessment. Don't know about you guys, but I'd rather hear glowing reports from Soto, who said he didn't know any background on Bailey, than "he's young and needs to spend time in the minors" (potentially a euphemism for "he throws hard but doesn't have a clue," which some posters believe to be the case). While I think it's true that Homer needs to be advanced with caution, I do think Soto's take is unadulterated and serves as a good window on what kind of stuff the kid has.

Everybody was raving about Howington and Aramboles four years ago, not just JimBo. That's what front office types, coaches and ex-players mulling around the practice fields do, they conjure images in their heads. I don't doubt that Soto liked what he saw. As ochre alluded to, Johnny Bench was enthralled with Chris Gruler.

It's like sending a guy into a bar. After he gets a few drinks in him he falls in love. Send him into another bar a week later and he'll fall in love with someone else.

Originally Posted by gonelong

I agree with the control, I disagree with him not throwing hard.

The last game I saw Homer pitch in Dayton he consistently hit 94-95 on the scoreboard Radar, hit 96 a dozen times, and hit 97 the 5th inning to K a guy.

Either the Dayton scoreboard Radar is fibbing (possible), or that guy DOES throw hard.

It might be a generous gun they've got at the park. Supposedly he's working 92-94 and that's a good 2-3 MPH off of what he was billed as throwing prior to the 2004 draft.

He still throws relatively hard, and with good movement and location 91-94 is a fien working velocity, but he's not in the Justin Verlander class.

[Jaycint]

Originally Posted by M2

He still throws relatively hard, and with good movement and location 91-94 is a fien working velocity, but he's not in the Justin Verlander class.

Well in all fairness he is over 3 years younger than Verlander. With a couple more years of physical maturation he might be packing another mile or two an hour onto that heater.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Jaycint

Well in all fairness he is over 3 years younger than Verlander. With a couple more years of physical maturation he might be packing another mile or two an hour onto that heater.

With a couple more years he might also lose some heat. The guys who throw hardest at 18 aren't always the ones throwing hardest at 22.

[Jaycint]

Originally Posted by M2

With a couple more years he might also lose some heat. The guys who throw hardest at 18 aren't always the ones throwing hardest at 22.

True. I guess time will tell. Hopefully he will be able to put it all together and arrive here in 08 or so. If not hopefully he can net us a few quality prospects in a trade.

[Candy Cummings]

Soto was always a favorite of mine....I'd love to see Coffey get the chance to close. On Bailey, I guess being a prospect is a double edged sword. Some people say you're the next Tom Seaver, other people say you're the next Ty Howington. Maybe its a little too soon to tell on Homer.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Candy Cummings

Soto was always a favorite of mine....I'd love to see Coffey get the chance to close. On Bailey, I guess being a prospect is a double edged sword. Some people say you're the next Tom Seaver, other people say you're the next Ty Howington. Maybe its a little too soon to tell on Homer.

I think that's a fair assessment. Ultimately it's not what people say about you, it's what you do. Homer's got a long way to go and hopefully he can stay healthy while he's making the journey.

[Aronchis]

Bailey will always look good to the naked observer because his arm strength is legit. He is a electric,physical prodigy. He was already hitting 97 on the gun in Augest after he recovered from his bout of mild tendanitis(which for a Reds prospect, is a miracle). No more bullpen time, a year adapted to pro-ball, more mature(hopefully ) should lead us to expect much better results from Mr. Bailey.

Bailey is going to be a nailbiter. He could give us that franchise stud, or a righthanded Howington. Howington was electric as any lefty prospect in baseball for 2001, better than Brandon Claussen. For a moment, there appeared to be light. Then Ty went to Fall ball, injured his shoulder and never was really to be seen again. The light was gone.

Bailey represents another ray of light. It is Krivsky's job to find out if the light it worth keeping or gotten rid of. The Reds have had GM's far to long that don't seem to have that sense. Hopefully Wayne does.

[gonelong]

Originally Posted by M2

It might be a generous gun they've got at the park. Supposedly he's working 92-94 and that's a good 2-3 MPH off of what he was billed as throwing prior to the 2004 draft.

I don't remember seeing anyone else putting up the kind of readings that Bailey did that night. I really think the kid has legit 94-96 speed when he wants it. I was not excited by Gruler and company, however, I have allowed myself to get a bit excited about Bailey.

He's no sure thing, but he has a legit shot, IMO, of being the type of power pitcher we have been longing for.

GL

[gonelong]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

He was already hitting 97 on the gun in Augest after he recovered from his bout of mild tendanitis(which for a Reds prospect, is a miracle).

The game I saw him hitting 94-96 consistently was in August last year.

GL

[Henry Clay]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Bailey will always look good to the naked observer because his arm strength is legit. He is a electric,physical prodigy. He was already hitting 97 on the gun in Augest after he recovered from his bout of mild tendanitis(which for a Reds prospect, is a miracle). No more bullpen time, a year adapted to pro-ball, more mature(hopefully ) should lead us to expect much better results from Mr. Bailey.

Bailey is going to be a nailbiter. He could give us that franchise stud, or a righthanded Howington. Howington was electric as any lefty prospect in baseball for 2001, better than Brandon Claussen. For a moment, there appeared to be light. Then Ty went to Fall ball, injured his shoulder and never was really to be seen again. The light was gone.

Bailey represents another ray of light. It is Krivsky's job to find out if the light it worth keeping or gotten rid of. The Reds have had GM's far to long that don't seem to have that sense. Hopefully Wayne does.

This is the best, most objective post in the thread. Bailey could boom or bust. Sounds like a promising A-level prospect. They exist in every organization, especially those drafted in the first two rounds. I wasn't there to see Bailey or Coffey. I also wasn't at camp to see Howington and Aramboles. I can't say whether Soto is right or not, but I am glad to hear some positive feedback from someone who: (1) did see Bailey and Coffey pitch; and (2) pitched pretty well in the major leagues himself.

As for the criticisms by folks and the comparisons to past failures, I'm not surprised. This team has teased and promised for years in similar stories with no deliverables at the end of the rainbow. Here's hoping these guys are different, the organization and minor league instructors don't ruin their arms, and Soto doesn't need glasses.

With that said, I'm surprised Soto suggested Coffey should throw heat and only heat (i.e., no changeup). Maybe his change is horrible, but I would think his fastball would only look better with a solid change thrown in to fool the hitters.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Soto saw him throw off a mound in spring training. Most likely he saw lots of Reds pitchers do the same. He happened to single out Bailey and Coffey. What does this indicate? In my mind, that the kid has real good stuff.

And to anyone else, it indicates that Homer Bailey is a big kid who throws hard plopped down in the middle of a bunch of guys who throw less hard. And all of it off a pitching mound with no batter to face.

And when was the last time a 19-year-old came into spring training and made an impression? It's been a while. The usual comps for Bailey around here -- Gruler, Howington, etc., never did. No one is claiming Bailey is destined for major league stardom. All I'm doing -- to the usual catcalls of guys who want Bailey to fail, seemingly -- is opine that the kid has a special arm and that this is further anecdotal evidence to that end.

Please. Want Bailey to fail. Bunk. Double-bunk. No one on this board has a vested interest in wanting Homer Bailey to fall flat on his face. I'd love it if he'd become the exception. But you've been arguing for so long that he IS the exception that you'll blow just about any comment out of proportion.

Judging a pitcher's "stuff" off a batting practice mound is akin to determining a racecar driver's proficiency after watching him burn around Daytona during practice laps while he's the only car on the track.

So you'll have to excuse me for not crediting Mario Soto for figuring out pretty much nothing more than Bailey is "big kid throws hard". You, however, want to take Soto's assessment to mean that Bailey is a special and that he's got great "stuff" rather than waiting to see if he'll- at some point- be able to really race in traffic. Why will you do that? Because you've got a vested interest in proving that Bailey is the exception before it's time to determine that Bailey is the exception. You did the same thing with Zach Grienke.

But I forgot -- we should trust what YOU say about Bailey, not Soto, right?

Oh, no. I completely trust that Soto saw "big kid throws hard" when he watched Homer Bailey throw off a mound.