2004 Draft thread

[GriffeyFan]

27. Marlins
Taylor Tankersley - LHP: Alabama

[GriffeyFan]

28. Dodgers
Blake Dewitt - 2B (HS)

[jmcclain19]

Your No. 1 pick in 2004 - Homer Bailey of La Grange, HS

[Cedric]

Buckeye33- Drew already was drafted.

[GriffeyFan]

29. Kansas City
Matt Campbell - LHP of South Carolina

[Cedric]

Honestly even with bad precedent I still can't imagine how anyone here would be willing to put their evaluations over the Reds scouts, seems egotistical to me.
I mean these guys are scouting 24/7 for a living, it's not our job and we don't have the pressure they have. If they fail they lose their livelyhood, we fail we NEVER mention it /

[GriffeyFan]

30. Texas
Eric Hearly - HS

15 minute break until supplemental round

[M2]

Originally Posted by traderumor

M2,

I find it interesting that Bailey (HS pitcher I know) sounds like the MO for pitchers that you want in your organization. The BA article is awfully impressive, and I must say that the Reds will hardly be made fun of for making that pick. I know that Nelson was your boy, and I agree that he sounds like a stud for a deep, deep need in our organization, but so is Bailey's position. Why are you disgusted at the pick?

They all get nice writeups, but the chances of Homer Bailey staying healthy and putting together a successful pitching repertoire are minimal. His age and level of advancement make him a highly toxic pick.

It's not uncommon for hard-throwing HS pitchers lose velocity as they mature, particularly ones who throw a lot of curveballs. The Reds could have selected a college pitcher with just as much stuff, a better chance of maintaining their stuff, a better chance of staying healthy and a better chance of reaching their ceilings. Or they could have just drafted the flawless SS prospect. Instead we get Homer Mottola, I mean Bailey.

[MattyHo4Life]

Do any of you guys know anyhing about the Cardinals pick, Chris Lambert? He's one guy I haven't heard much about.

[SYCMiniBus]

For the record to avoid any confusion Bailey was the #3 rated prospect by Baseball America. So that should avoid an accusation of being an overdraft. I hope the Reds do have a deal with him, and if they do get him to Billings.

[halcyon]

Cedric,
I don't recall very many posters saying that Bailey isn't talented enough to merit where he was chosen, but I think they are saying that HS pitchers are a risk they can't afford to take w/ the Reds shallow system. Course, this has only been stated a hundred thousand times on the board, so I don't know why I repeat it.

[Stormy]

Originally Posted by traderumor

M2,

I find it interesting that Bailey (HS pitcher I know) sounds like the MO for pitchers that you want in your organization. The BA article is awfully impressive, and I must say that the Reds will hardly be made fun of for making that pick. I know that Nelson was your boy, and I agree that he sounds like a stud for a deep, deep need in our organization, but so is Bailey's position. Why are you disgusted at the pick?

Because he's familiar with the studies which indicate that the chances of a HS power arm like Bailey's chances of making it to a MLB roster are infinitesimal. One could disregard the league-wide research and just use the Reds organization as their own case study on the effectiveness of taking a HS arm early in recent drafts: Howington, Gruler, Gilman - not to mention the bevy of those we've traded for which have since made their journey to the operating table. There were polished, quality college arms available at our spot and we past. There was an exceptional quality MI available at the same spot... and instead we went the wrong route, again.

Bailey's profile and video look impressive, but then again, so did Gruler's and Howington's and Gilman's etc... I like everything I have read, heard, seen about Homer Bailey, but it seems like an exceptionally risky pick for a new regime attempting to avoid the same pattern of mistakes which sunk the previous regime.

[Buckeye33]

Oops...who got him? I'm on dial-up at work. Hard to keep up.

[LvJ]

Good God people.

[SYCMiniBus]

Originally Posted by M2

They all get nice writeups, but the chances of Homer Bailey staying healthy and putting together a successful pitching repertoire are minimal. His age and level of advancement make him a highly toxic pick.

It's not uncommon for hard-throwing HS pitchers lose velocity as they mature, particularly ones who throw a lot of curveballs. The Reds could have selected a college pitcher with just as much stuff, a better chance of maintaining their stuff, a better chance of staying healthy and a better chance of reaching their ceilings. Or they could have just drafted the flawless SS prospect. Instead we get Homer Mottola, I mean Bailey.

Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.