Arroyo - how will he pitch?

[Falls City Beer]

I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

30 GS
210 IP
220 H
50 BB
150 K
4.25 ERA
.740 OPSA

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Arroyo - how will he pitch?

Bad.




BAD.

[KronoRed]

He'll throw some pitches, win some, lose some.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

30 GS
210 IP
220 H
50 BB
150 K
4.25 ERA
.740 OPSA

If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.

[Heath]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.

If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by Ravenlord

doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?

The Davenport Translations used do compare the league and team factors but I'm not sure they use park factors. Even if they do, I'm not convinced Arroyo will pitch better in GABP given his righty-lefty splits. And remember, PECOTA was forcast for Arroyo pitching in Boston, not Cincinnati. Here are the '05 Park Indices per Bill James.

For the following stats: 100 is neutral - Under 100 favor the pitcher - Over 100 favors the hitters.

2005 Park Indices

Park          HR   LHB-AVG   LHB-HR
Fenway Park   99     101       84
GABP          121    111       127

If the dudes pitching peripherals (K/9, K/BB, G/F) fall in line with his '05 numbers, he's in for a rude awakening at GABP. At best, they follow his '04 numbers and then he's still a #4 or 5 on a good staff.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Heath

If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Heath

If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!

I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by GAC

I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.

If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by Heath

If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

Aaron Harang.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Reds Nd2

If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.

Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.

[TOBTTReds]

Originally Posted by TC81190

Aaron Harang.

That is sad that we can only mention one pitcher better than Arroyo.

This is definitely an upgrade for our staff. He is replacing Mike Gosling or Justin Germano!

Also consider that he had to face the Yankees a few times (haven't checked the number of games) and the Orioles. I know there is a league adjustment, but there is also a division adjustment necessary too.

[Krusty]

If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.

I was just trying to be funny but I hope your right about Arroyo. He switched leagues which should help but GABP isn't as pitcher friendly as Fenway and that's going to hurt him, especially against left handed batters. If his peripherals don't improve from '05, he's going to have a very difficult time avoiding a 5.00+ ERA.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by Krusty

If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.

What about Wilson? I was thinking this move makes it easier for the Reds to put Milton in the bullpen.