Arroyo - how will he pitch?

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Reds Nd2

What about Wilson? I was thinking this move makes it easier for the Reds to put Milton in the bullpen.

That's my thought too. A couple of Milton starts with people straining their necks watching the balls shooting out of GABP might send him packing to the 'pen.

[RedsManRick]

His splits are pretty weird. He's money versus righties (.647) but struggles against lefties (.793 OPS). However, Fenway is tough on lefties, power wise, and very favorable for righties. It's almost like Arroyo is a ROOGY if there could be such a guy. With GABP a HR haven, especially for lefties, lookout. But that said, he should continue to dominate righties.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

His splits are pretty weird. He's money versus righties (.647) but struggles against lefties (.793 OPS).

not really weird when you consider he lacks a quality changeup and his best pitch is a curveball.

[TeamSelig]

K/9

2003: 7.27
2004: 7.15
2005: 4.38

1.85 K/BB in 2005, compared to a 3.02 in '04 and 3.50 in '03

What happened?

Comparing last year to his '04 season, he has a higher ERA, more HRs allowed, more walks, less strike outs, more Hits allowed than innings pitched, and a higher OPSA. He used to be an above average pitcher, but now I'm not so sure.

My prediction is that he pitches close to 200 IP, 115 K, 50 BB, 28 HRs allowed, 4.67 ERA.

[osuceltic]

I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times? Junior and Dunn have to inflate those numbers somewhat, don't they? I'm not denying it's a favorable park for lefties, but do those two lefties make it seem a little more favorable than it really is? I honestly don't know, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

Arroyo is a pretty good pitcher. Some of his numbers are a little inflated by some really, REALLY bad outings. But those 20 quality starts are pretty compelling. And he pitched a lot against the Yankees, a team that had his number. He's not going to see them anymore.

Look at some of the contracts pitchers have gotten. Look at their production. I think Arroyo, who is at least a league average starter, is an absolute bargain. And those guys don't come cheaply on the market. The fact that we got him for a guy who has never been an everyday player, hits for a low average, doesn't make contact, doesn't get on base, is a poor base-runner and a lousy defender seems like a pretty good deal. He does one thing well -- hit the ball a long way. So that will help on the occasions that he does it. But Arroyo will help every fifth day.

Sorry ... I'm getting into a trade analysis. Suffice it to say I think Arroyo will be very solid and often very good. I think the Reds are closer to competing than they were yesterday, and positive steps are good things. There are more moves to be made.

[TeamSelig]

I don't think it was a horrible trade, just a bad trade. I would have been more pleased if they kept their cash, and sent us a decent prospect in return (nothing major either, just something of value)

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times?

Yep. It means those two guys thumped a lot better at GABP than they did on the road and that other teams LH hitters did as well.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times? Junior and Dunn have to inflate those numbers somewhat, don't they? I'm not denying it's a favorable park for lefties, but do those two lefties make it seem a little more favorable than it really is? I honestly don't know, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

The teams makeup doesn't skew the numbers like your thinking it would.

From the 2006 Bill James Handbook:
Park Indices are calculated in a way that neutralizes the effect of a team's makeup and isolates the effects of the park. This isolation is figured by comparing what both the team and it's opponents accomplished at home, and comparing that to what the same team and it's oponents accomplished on the road.

To calculate the Park Index for Home Runs in a given ballpark we take the total Home Runs of both the home team and it's opponents at the ballpark and compare it to the total Home Runs of the home team and it's opponenets in other games. We then divide each of those totals by the At Bats in the equivalent situations so that if there are more at bats in either situation the index is not skewed. The result is then multiplied by 100 to yield the familiar form.

The Park Indices for Doubles, Triples, Walks, Strikeouts, and Home Runs by lefties and righties are determined like Home Runs, above - relative to At Bats. Indices of At Bats, Runs, Hits, Errors, and Infield Fielding Errors (E-Infield) are calculated relative to Games. Average Indices are calculated as-is, as these are already relative to At Bats.

A park with an index of exactly 100 is neutral and can be said to have no effect on that particular stat. An index above 100 means the ballpark favors that statistic. For example, if a park has a Home Run Index of 120, it was 20% easier to hit Home Runs in that park then the rest of the parks in that teams league.

Interleague games are not included in the underlying Park Index data, both because the interleague schedules are significantly imbalanced, and because the designated hitter rule, only used in American League parks, would artificially skew all AL parks towards appearing to be hitters parks and all NL parks towards appearing to be pitcher parks.

[KearnsyEars]

I'm predicting a Milton type year....from the right side.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by KearnsyEars

I'm predicting a Milton type year....from the right side.

At least we'll have both