Pena traded for Arroyo

[traderumor]

Of course, we can debate PECOTAs and projections and trade theory all we want, but for my money, I see M2, Princeton, FCB, and WOY assenting, to varying degrees, so, not to be kissing anyone's posterior here, I'm thinking this deal is a good sign. Sorry Steel, gonna have to go with the majority opinion on this one.

[flyer85]

For 2006 and 2007 it probably increases the win total by a few. If that was the goal then mission accomplished.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Of course, we can debate PECOTAs and projections and trade theory all we want, but for my money, I see M2, Princeton, FCB, and WOY assenting, to varying degrees, so, not to be kissing anyone's posterior here, I'm thinking this deal is a good sign. Sorry Steel, gonna have to go with the majority opinion on this one.

Appeals to authority and to the majority, eh? I'm surprised you're bailing out so easily.

[letsgojunior]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

If Krivsky really had guts, he would have held out for a better return instead of acting like this was a No-Reserve auction on EBay. There was no real reason this trade had to be made, other than Krivsky getting trigger-happy.

Other than the fact that it would be foolish to go north with Matt Gosling as a member of the rotation?

What would happen if Krivsky didn't trade WMP, and then he started out the season slow given his lack of activity this spring? If the Reds floundered, the return would be a LOT LESS, given that the Reds would be over a barrel to find pitching, and other teams would perceive WMP as more questionable as to whether he would ever develop his star power.

Do you really think Krivsky just gave him away to anyone who would throw their crap at us? I'm wondering what reports you have from members of the media or front office personnel that Krivsky passed up a better deal. I read last night that Jimbo tried like mad to get him, and I imagine a number of teams with offensive issues put in offers as well.

Bronson Arroyo will never be a #1 starter, but some are acting like we just traded our entire team for Pokey Reese. Lets have at least a passing glance at reality though please - WMP strikes out at an alarming rate, has serious defensive issues, does not walk at all, has significant lapses where he strikes out on three pitches, and defensively is nothing to write home about. yes, he could develop into a star. Or, he could turn into the next Ruben Mateo, Juan Encarnacion, or another one of Jimbo's five tool wonders.

We've been calling for years for our GM to use a strength to address a weakness. It's finally been done.

As for the assertion that we just traded with Theo, therefore we've been pillaged... this is a guy who put Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers six months before he was a WS MVP, had the A-Rod deal completely done - because he walked into a circumstance where almost all the pieces were in place for the team to win it all does NOT mean that he is a some trading deity.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Appeals to authority and to the majority, eh? I'm surprised you're bailing out so easily.

is that a possible sign of lack of empirical data?

[westofyou]

200 innings covered helps the bullpen a heck of a lot, improved outfield defense has to add some outs here and there.

The battle is also against attrition to the staff as a whole, scoring runs can't produce the same results as heaping innings on the starters scales.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

There has to be a middle ground between foolhardiness (Krivsky in this deal) and impotence (DanO in all deals).


Krivsky acted as if this was his only chance to trade Pena, and in his apparent desperation, he accepted what I think is less than market value in return. I'd say that's a valid judge of a trade and of a trader, at least at this point.

I think that your first portrayal, as foolish, has great validity. As for the second, I've seen nothing to indicate that Krivsky was desperate to make a deal.

I do think that it's always nice to not kiss a season goodbye, and to trade out of surplus and into need.

I'm impressed by the cold logic of the move-- contracts must often outweigh talent-- and by the GM's ability to accept risk. I think that these are two traits that are really important to succeed within a small market. We've had risk-taking GMs but we haven't had a logical, risk-taking GM since Bob Quinn.

that doesn't mean that I don't think that we just picked up Ernie Broglio. But I've seen just enough to look forward to more moves from WayneK. I could very well be wrong, as it's never good to extrapolate from one data point.

get busy, Krivsky. There's a lot more work to be done, plus I need more data

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by letsgojunior

Other than the fact that it would be foolish to go north with Matt Gosling as a member of the rotation?

Depends on what the goal is. If the goal was to maximize 2006 win total then it would be foolish to go north with Gosling/Germano. This team will lose in 2006 with or without Bronson Arroyo, who might be worth a couple of marginal wins.

I am bothered by the fact this team seems to be trying to win now without a plan of how to build to win in the future(simply an assumption at this point). I was troubled when I heard than Castellini wanted to win now because it was not feasible in 2006(or 07 for that matter) and the moves they have made while improving the team in the short term don't seem to do anything to position the team for long term success. It looks to me to be an attempt to go back to the Bowden cycle of trying to maximize the win total on a yearly basis without a plan to build to a total that would push the team into the playoffs. I could be all wrong and Krivsky will later use a guy like Arroyo to acquire players with a real future but at the moment it is too soon to tell. The last 6 years as a Reds fan has made me rather jaded about the future.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by westofyou

200 innings covered helps the bullpen a heck of a lot, improved outfield defense has to add some outs here and there.

trouble is this is basically the same awful OF defense as last year. Sure Kearns playing everyday will help but a real improvement would be moving Jr to LF and installing Freel/Denorfia in CF. That would instantly make every Reds pitcher better and would actually make the Reds average or better at all 3 OF positions instead of well below average at 2 of the 3.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

As Puca pointed out on another thread, Arroyo is the kind of pitcher smart teams trade away, not trade for. The Red Sox exploited Krivsky's desperation with this deal.

I don't see any desperation in this deal at all. Where is it? The return we got for WMP was on-par with his current value. I see that Krivsky saw an opportunity to improve the starting rotation for an expendable commodity. Of course, you could argue--as some have--that we should have hung onto Wily Mo and only dealt him when we had to, or when his stock had risen higher. But that begs two questions--why only make trades when your back is against the wall, and what would happen if Wily mo regressed this season, or at a minimum showed little improvement over past years?

Right now, Wily Mo is a muscle-bound slugger who will hit some home runs, strike out at an alarming rate, and make every fly ball hit his way into the Next Great Adventure. He's been this way for several years now. It's entirely possible that he'll improve his game and become a dependable 40 HR guy. It's also possible that this is simply how he is, and we should not expect a great improvement over skill level.

What I do see is that prior to Arroyo's arrival, this rotation was staffed by 2 decent hurlers and an assortment of junk. Now, 3/5 of our rotation can be considered "legitimate", the outfield defense has been improved markedly, and the hit that we took was in the one place this team has excess--offense.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Appeals to authority and to the majority, eh? I'm surprised you're bailing out so easily.

Appeals to authority are only fallacious when they are not valid authorities. The track records of those named speak for themselves. Further, I have not made a claim that others should adopt my view based on the reasoning I've used to form that conclusion.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by letsgojunior

Other than the fact that it would be foolish to go north with Matt Gosling as a member of the rotation?

What would happen if Krivsky didn't trade WMP, and then he started out the season slow given his lack of activity this spring? If the Reds floundered, the return would be a LOT LESS, given that the Reds would be over a barrel to find pitching, and other teams would perceive WMP as more questionable as to whether he would ever develop his star power.

You think teams didn't/don't know that the Reds were/are over a barrel to find pitching?

Do you really think Krivsky just gave him away to anyone who would throw their crap at us? I'm wondering what reports you have from members of the media or front office personnel that Krivsky passed up a better deal. I read last night that Jimbo tried like mad to get him, and I imagine a number of teams with offensive issues put in offers as well.

Well, if that's the case and multiple teams were bidding for Pena's services then Krivsky shouldn't have had any issues getting a package worth more than Arroyo.

Bronson Arroyo will never be a #1 starter, but some are acting like we just traded our entire team for Pokey Reese. Lets have at least a passing glance at reality though please - WMP strikes out at an alarming rate, has serious defensive issues, does not walk at all, has significant lapses where he strikes out on three pitches, and defensively is nothing to write home about. yes, he could develop into a star. Or, he could turn into the next Ruben Mateo, Juan Encarnacion, or another one of Jimbo's five tool wonders.

First, no one's acting as if Arroyo is complete garbage. I don't mind having Arroyo on the team. I don't think anyone really does. What I mind is that the Reds didn't win this trade from a value perspective and, considering the replacement now in place, the Reds are actually over/under from a Run value perspective.

Secondly, Pena simply doesn't comp with any other five-tooler Bowden brought in. No, Pena isn't going to win any batting titles. Yes, he's going to struggle to get his OBP over .350 without the help of a significant number of Intentional Walks.

But what he does have is irrefutable power. Special natural power. The kind of power Pena possesses is an exceptionally marketable commodity- particularly because it's nigh-unparalleled power.

We've been calling for years for our GM to use a strength to address a weakness. It's finally been done.

I don't know about you, but I've been calling for years for a GM to use a strength to address a weakness as long as said GM truly won the trade.

As for the assertion that we just traded with Theo, therefore we've been pillaged... this is a guy who put Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers six months before he was a WS MVP, had the A-Rod deal completely done - because he walked into a circumstance where almost all the pieces were in place for the team to win it all does NOT mean that he is a some trading deity.

Not sure who's making that assertion but if there's one thing Epstein has proven it's that he can find talent. But really, that's a conversation for another thread.

[TRF]

Steel put it better than i did, but the crux is Arroyo was a good start. 1.5 mil was a bad finish. WMP is 5 years younger, is under control of the Red Sox for 3 more very cheap years, and quite frankly as a player has more upside than Either Arroyo or 1.5 million dollars.

The Reds had the leverage and wasted it.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by TRF

The Reds had the leverage and wasted it.

Hey but they are going to win more games in 2006 than they would have otherwise.

[TRF]

how? With Hatteberg's Castro like bat?