BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

The "mythical prospects" are no more tiresome that you trotting out the endless loop of "that's DanO thinking."

OK, well, I've not accused anyone here of "DanO thinking" (an oxymoron of sorts, really), but I too am getting tired of the mythical throw-in prospect that would have, by some admissions, made this trade more palateable.

I merely think that WMP is being overvalued by some here, nothing more. the power he brought to the table was impressive, but his circuitous routes to fly balls and wild flails at balls nowhere near the strike zone won't be missed.

[TRF]

People in the "it was a good trade" camp seem to feel it's ok to ignore one simple fact: there is no, or very very few historical comps. to Wily Mo Pena. His development curve has yet to be fully realized. Boston is probably a pretty good fit for him, but Cincinnati was better. He's ready for 500+ AB's.

Arroyo had an OUTSTANDING day yesterday. But that particular type of day hasn't been seen by him in quite a while. I think he lies somewhere inbetween yesterday and his previous start.

And for WMP, that ain't enough. One of the Red Sox better prospect arms should have been included. And for me, had the trade been for Clement, I'd have been ok with a 1-1 swap. Clement misses bats. Arroyo did yesterday, but had not for the previous year. If the pitcher that took the mound for the Reds shows up like that all year, I'll eat crow. happily. But I sincerely doubt anyone in the "pro trade" camp think he will. WMP is hitting .320 since the trade, and is building off a solid winter campaign. Do I think WMP is going to hit .320 all year? nah. But I do think he's going to improve accross the board. I say this not based on his stats alone. I base it on the ballplayer he wants to become, and his actual thoughts on what he needs to improve.

He has nor comp, or very few in regards to his development. so you can't say WMP won't develop, that his OBP won't go up, or that he won't figure out RH pitchers.

Just like I really can't say Arroyo won't rebound from what I feel was an alarmingly bad 2004. His K/9 could rebound. He could start manhandling LH hitters. But I think that time has worked against him in this regard. I'd heve better hope he could do this if he weren't knocking on the door to 30 years old.

[westofyou]

People in the "it was a good trade" camp seem to feel it's ok to ignore one simple fact: there is no, or very very few historical comps. to Wily Mo Pena.

Then it becomes a longshot bet, with an increasing price tag.

Something teams with limited resources shouldn't use as a tool in an attempt to right a ship. Approachs like that give me Willie Kamm feelings.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Then it becomes a longshot bet, with an increasing price tag.

Something teams with limited resources shouldn't use as a tool in an attempt to right a ship. Approachs like that give me Willie Kamm feelings.

I have Willie Kamm on a couple of my Sim League teams - lots of triples.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by registerthis

OK, well, I've not accused anyone here of "DanO thinking" (an oxymoron of sorts, really), but I too am getting tired of the mythical throw-in prospect that would have, by some admissions, made this trade more palateable.

I merely think that WMP is being overvalued by some here, nothing more. the power he brought to the table was impressive, but his circuitous routes to fly balls and wild flails at balls nowhere near the strike zone won't be missed.

Fair enough.

I'm rooting for Arroyo to do well and help the Reds. But please keep in mind that he's got some questions surrounding him, too. Can he get his K/9 back to a decent level? Can he avoid a Miltonesque HR plague in GABP?

Getting a prospect in that deal, especially the one the Reds were interested in (Van Buren) would have helped mitigate those questions. It's my belief that a good negotiator would have been able to swing a deal like that.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Puffy

I have Willie Kamm on a couple of my Sim League teams - lots of triples.

100 Grand Player in the 20's, never amounted to the price tag.

I bet Comiskey was triples park like Redland

[TRF]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Then it becomes a longshot bet, with an increasing price tag.

Something teams with limited resources shouldn't use as a tool in an attempt to right a ship. Approachs like that give me Willie Kamm feelings.

So Boston can afford it, but the Reds can't.

I'm fine with that thinking. What I am not fine with is not recognizing that since WMP's comps are hard to determine, though BP did a very good job trying to find them, it's ok to just accept a very average pitcher (maybe even below average if he continues pitching like last year.)

BP put some work into their analysis of WMP. I bet Bill James did too. I doubt the Reds did as much. Arroyo was not enough.

[westofyou]

I doubt the Reds did as much.

The guy was in their organization for quite some time, to think that they didn't form an opinion of him based on data and the day to day is just being silly.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by westofyou

100 Grand Player in the 20's, never amounted to the price tag.

I bet Comiskey was triples park like Redland

Kamm was all defense and triples - no power (although not many in his time did have power), decent average, decent walks, good glove, good range at third. Thats about it.

[Cyclone792]

I don't believe that opting to hang on to Pena for one more season is a Dan O'Brien type thinking, rather the Dan O'Brien type thinking was letting Pena rot on the bench for the past two seasons. I wouldn't have been opposed to hanging on to Pena this season to see how he could further develop by playing regularly, but when given the opportunity to flip him for a pitcher I'd project to be above average at a cost efficient salary, I've gotta pull the trigger, especially with the current state of Reds pitching.

My main concerns with Pena are his ability to control the strike zone, his plate discipline and the possibility of him becoming a highly cost inefficient corner outfielder, especially for the Reds. If Pena goes out and puts up .250/40/105, then he's going to command a pretty decent salary via arbitration. The problem, however, is if he puts up that type up line with rate stats of .250/.305/.500. The two questions become A) what type of salary would he command in arbitration (and ultimately free agency), and B) is that salary cost efficient for the Reds given his actual production value? My beliefs are A) quite a bit, and B) not at all. It's possible that the drastic increase in salary would lower his market value on the trade market, and that equation result wouldn't be optimal for the Reds. Additionally, his defense is well, atrocious, and he adds little to no gain with his glove or via positional adjustments.

I don't doubt that Pena can hit 40 home runs if given 650 plate appearances. What I doubt is if Pena could ever put up even a tolerable OBP that would make a salary that's driven up by 40 home run power remotely cost efficient.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by TRF

People in the "it was a good trade" camp seem to feel it's ok to ignore one simple fact: there is no, or very very few historical comps. to Wily Mo Pena. His development curve has yet to be fully realized. Boston is probably a pretty good fit for him, but Cincinnati was better. He's ready for 500+ AB's.

Arroyo had an OUTSTANDING day yesterday. But that particular type of day hasn't been seen by him in quite a while. I think he lies somewhere inbetween yesterday and his previous start.

And for WMP, that ain't enough. One of the Red Sox better prospect arms should have been included. And for me, had the trade been for Clement, I'd have been ok with a 1-1 swap. Clement misses bats. Arroyo did yesterday, but had not for the previous year. If the pitcher that took the mound for the Reds shows up like that all year, I'll eat crow. happily. But I sincerely doubt anyone in the "pro trade" camp think he will. WMP is hitting .320 since the trade, and is building off a solid winter campaign. Do I think WMP is going to hit .320 all year? nah. But I do think he's going to improve accross the board. I say this not based on his stats alone. I base it on the ballplayer he wants to become, and his actual thoughts on what he needs to improve.

He has nor comp, or very few in regards to his development. so you can't say WMP won't develop, that his OBP won't go up, or that he won't figure out RH pitchers.

Just like I really can't say Arroyo won't rebound from what I feel was an alarmingly bad 2004. His K/9 could rebound. He could start manhandling LH hitters. But I think that time has worked against him in this regard. I'd heve better hope he could do this if he weren't knocking on the door to 30 years old.

Given that Wily Mo has essentially no comps, one could argue that the Reds needed not only cost certainty but value certainty. We couldn't afford to have one of our few valuable assets go bust -- and had little historical insight in to whether or not he would blossom or continue to struggle.

I'm not saying he will or won't succeed -- I happen to think that he will have a few great, all-star type years in his late 20's as he develops in skill against righties and then suffer a rapid decline in his early-mid 30's, largely due to injuries and his body type (basically what Sammy would've experienced if he weren't roided up) Low contact rates and slowing wrists as he ages will not treat him well.

However, the Reds needed to do something to get pitching and for reasons already discussed, I think Wily Mo was the right guy to go. If it were possible to get a better deal, I think Wayne would've gotten it. I'm curious why you think Wily Mo merits a proven major league starter AND a top pitching prospect? What comprable deals have occured recent which lead you to believe this is fair value? What other rumors surround his availability the last 2 years have suggest that type of return. I don't disagree that a DelCarmen or similar prospect would've been great. I'm just not sure I understand why it would've been reasonable.

EDIT -- I'll grant the Overbay trade. However, most people agree that the Jays overpaid and Overbay has had a 120 OPS+ the last 2 years and is actually cheaper than Pena.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by westofyou

The guy was in their organization for quite some time, to think that they didn't form an opinion of him based on data and the day to day is just being silly.

I was referring to analysis of Arroyo, but didn't make that clear.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Fair enough.

I'm rooting for Arroyo to do well and help the Reds. But please keep in mind that he's got some questions surrounding him, too. Can he get his K/9 back to a decent level? Can he avoid a Miltonesque HR plague in GABP?

Getting a prospect in that deal, especially the one the Reds were interested in (Van Buren) would have helped mitigate those questions. It's my belief that a good negotiator would have been able to swing a deal like that.

The Reds did get a prospect in that deal. His name was Cash. And the Van Buren rumor has never become any more than that.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by traderumor

The Reds did get a prospect in that deal. His name was Cash...

They received that same prospect for Scott Williamson, Aaron Boone, etc. He never made it to the big club.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

They received that same prospect for Scott Williamson, Aaron Boone, etc. He never made it to the big club.

Sure he did. You just never saw him because he likes to hide in pockets.