BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by TRF

People aren't over valuing power. They are over valuing average to below average pitching.

To paraphrase Eddie Murphy, if someone hands you a cracker, you think, "hey, a cracker" and you eat it, and it's...well, a cracker. But if you're starving and someone hands you a cracker, you think it's the best cracker you've ever had. "That was a good cracker! Was that a Ritz?"

Arroyo is the cracker to the pitching-starved Reds fan.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Arroyo is the cracker to the pitching-starved Reds fan.

And Pena was a saltine.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

To simply dismiss their opinion as "overvaluing" WMP is pretty obtuse.

It's not a simple dismissal, though--that's just it. Those of us who disagree with that opinion have very good reasons for doing so. And I'm not particularly concerned about what perceived authority is stating this or that, if I (or others) disagree, it's because we have evidence which leads us to a different conclusion.

BP is entitled to their opinion about the trade, but their word is not gospel, and they're privy to the same stats and analysis that we all have seen.

[TRF]

Pena was more like that hamburger you intend to grill. You put it on, but you keep turning off the propane tank for extended periods of time. Eventually, your burger will get cooked, but it might be a little uneven. certainly a little raw.

analogies are fun!

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by registerthis

And Pena was a saltine.

Sure. And the Reds should have found a starving man to trade him to.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by TRF

Pena was more like that hamburger you intend to grill. You put it on, but you keep turning off the propane tank for extended periods of time. Eventually, your burger will get cooked, but it might be a little uneven. certainly a little raw.

Or Pena's the burger that looks good coming out of the package, but when you grill it it shrivels in size and never tastes quite right.

What kind of burger is Pena going to be? Who knows. I'm just consistently amused that Mystery Prospect, whoever that could have been, would have made this trade that much more palatable for you. As if Boston throwing in a AA equivalent of Tuffy Rhodes would somehow have balanced this trade out more.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Sure. And the Reds should have found a starving man to trade him to.

If Arroyo was worthless and not a much-needed improvement to this club, I might be inclined to agree. As it stands, I'm quite content with the trade--starving man analogies notwithstanding.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by princeton

Brogliorroyo is not exactly an automatic 200.

that is true.

[westofyou]

Never said my opinion was infallible. IMO this arguement will be settled sometime in October. Thing is WMP is likely to still be playing meaningful games. playoff games.

Yeah batting only against RH's and being a role player

I know WMP has a low OBP. I'm of the opinion that is something he can raise. He's said it was a problem area that he intends to work on,

I wish I had a dollar for every ballplayer I've heard that about.

[princeton]

WMP is a much better risk-- he improved a LOT in 2004 and held at that level in 2005. Reds are betting that he plateaued, but 24-year-olds improve, and 24-year-olds that have already played a lot in the majors often become stars.

Arroyo is much more the risk, because he's not actually coming off a plateau, he's coming off a decline. In his defense, pitchers are pretty unpredictable-- what looks like a decline often turns out to be just a bad year. The declining K's are the big red flag.

WMP has tools that could still be skills. And he has the biggest skill: power.

Arroyo's biggest "skills" are that he might be able to give innings and he has an acceptable contract.

the Reds took on more risk, and the contract made the risk more acceptable. But this has to happen if you actually want to win a few games and don't develop your own pitching. It reminds me of John Hart's Indians deals: Dave Burba, etc.

the real thing to watch is whether a few more wins allows the Reds to draw more fans, to carry a bigger payroll and to be in play for other cost-dependent moves. It's like improving your bathroom-- if you're selling your house and you've got a really bad bathroom, then a better bathroom might more than pay for itself. But it's too bad that the bathroom wasn't already in decent shape.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

My problem is with the quick dismissal of a real authority. I suspect the folks at BP know all about WMP's on-base percentage, etc., and factored those things into their opinion. Knowing that, they're still not in favor of the trade.

To simply dismiss their opinion as "overvaluing" WMP is pretty obtuse.

Well, BP also has really latched on to Pena because their PECOTA projection system actually called his 2004 breakout at a time when nobody else thought he'd amount to a hill of (rice and) beans because of his contract and awful 2003.

I'm not sure that counts as "overvaluing" on its own, but since their system really favors players who are in the majors at a young age, you could say they "overvalue" any player in Pena's age category who has both major strengths and major holes in his game.

PECOTA isn't unjustified in its love for experienced 24-year-old major leaguers. Most baseball people agree with the general perception.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by TRF

By age 28, Sammy Sosa had never topped 45 walks in a season. At age 28 he hit 36 HR's and had a .300 OBP. Next year he exploded into everyones livingroom. Was he juicing? Who knows, but steroids don't get you more walks. Now the fear of power will get you more walks. Pena has that power, and can generate that fear naturally.

That works two ways, though. Fear of a hitter's power forces pitchers to pitch more carefully, true. That should lead to more walks. But that presumes a certain level of plate discipline, doesn't it? What if the pitchers are already doing that, and the hitter's chasing and whiffing instead of walking? I argued in a thread a month or so ago that Pena's already being pitched in a manner that could lead to a healthy walk rate, but he's not taking them. Everyone knows he can hit the ball 500 feet, and they also know he'll chase junk. Pitchers aren't going to do anything differently until WMP makes them. But if he'll adjust and make pitchers understand they'll have to come over the plate to get him out, he'll have more chances to launch the ball to the moon.

Power can lead to walks, but in WMP's case, walks will lead to power.

The other thing that affected the situation is that Pena's already into his arbitration years. When or if he breaks out, his price tag will reflect it. Sadly, his days as a source of cheap power are about over. And if he's like Sosa and doesn't have his breakout until his late 20s, what good does that do the Reds if he's already eligible for free agency or about to be?

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by TRF

By age 28, Sammy Sosa had never topped 45 walks in a season. At age 28 he hit 36 HR's and had a .300 OBP. Next year he exploded into everyones livingroom. Was he juicing? Who knows, but steroids don't get you more walks. Now the fear of power will get you more walks. Pena has that power, and can generate that fear naturally.

I keep hearing how the market is awash with corner power guys. Wanna know how many of the top 20 Power hitting LF's changed teams this year? 1 Coco Crisp. that's it. Of the top 20 power hitting RF's only Reggie Sanders and WMP found new homes. Hardly an oversaturation of the market.

People aren't over valuing power. They are over valuing average to below average pitching.

I don't believe pinning a guy to Sammy Sosa's "development" will get you very far. For every Sosa, there are 10 guys who just never learned the strike zone.
Will WMP become Sammy or the other 10 guys. Of course we don't know but I wouldn't put money on him becoming Sammy.

[TRF]

Maybe he isn't Sosa. Mybe he's Ruben Sierra. I prefer Sierra to the next Esteban Loaiza.

And before i hear anything about his 2005 numbers, Loaiza's had exactly 2 good seasons in his 11 year career.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Even though I do respect the opinions of the authorities you cited, the fact is they're not nearly as authoritative as a group like BP. I just found it funny that when you read the opinions of those who make their living analyzing baseball, you tossed them out like so much trash without even addressing the arguments they made. "They're overvaluing Pena" is not what I'd call a well-constructed rebuttal.

They did not add any new information and there's a multiple page discussion on the issue. What is there left to address?