BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by traderumor

BP overvaluing WMP as well.

I agree.

It seems almost everone is doing that.

[TRF]

And Guillen was a known headcase and his breakout was screaming 1 year wonder. Anyone could have had him at the beginning of the year for nothing.

this is pong. one side is overvaluing Pena, the other Arroyo.

I guess we'll see in October.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by TRF

this is pong. one side is overvaluing Pena, the other Arroyo.

Which would make the trade even, correct?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by reds44

I agree.

It seems almost everone is doing that.

Really? I think almost everyone is overvaluing Arroyo.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by registerthis

Which would make the trade even, correct?

I think that would be tic tac toe.

[TRF]

Didn't St. Louis trade an OF to Atlanta for a starting pitcher a couple of years ago?

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by TRF

Didn't St. Louis trade an OF to Atlanta for a starting pitcher a couple of years ago?

Since logging off I started remembering a few examples.
Matt Clement for Mark Kotsay
Woody Williams for Ray Lankford
Jon Leiber for Brant Brown

You're probably thinking of J.D. Drew for Jason Marquis.

I'm not sure I'd take any of these outfielders.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by TRF

And Guillen was a known headcase and his breakout was screaming 1 year wonder. Anyone could have had him at the beginning of the year for nothing.

Wait a minute, you brought this guy's name into the discussion. What is your point? Throw out the "beginning of the season" comment because this was at a point he was putting up good numbers (337/385/629 line, with 23 homers in 315 ABs) which resulted in a rich contract at the end of the season.

[Larkin411]

I'd just like to point out in fairness to BP that it is just one writer's opinion. BP has a number of writers all of whom probably have slightly different takes on WMP. For instance, despite PECOTA's love for Wily Mo, Nate Silver has never claimed that it proves that PECOTA is perfect or that Wily Mo is destined for greatness. In fact they've taken pains to dissuade people from jumping to any such conclusions.

I would say the general attitude is guarded optimism about Wily Mo. I personally feel the same way and wish we could have found a better trade for him. Plus, I keep imagining scenarios where our offensively potent outfielders are all on the disabled list(Dunn excepted) and really the scenario doesn't take any giant stretch of the imagination on my part.

[Spitball]

Was Wily Mo Pena in danger of being exposed if he had played full time in Cincinnati?

I'm not sure that Pena wasn't in danger of becoming exposed if he had been placed in full time duty in Cincinnati. A batter's tendencies get around and holes in a swing become common knowledge. His second half line was .290/.401/.691 was not pretty. How much was hamstring and how much was "the book" on Pena?

Pena has obvious holes, and I personally feel the Reds did Pena a huge favor by trading him to a situation where he can continue to develop in a limited role. He hits very well against left handed pitching so being in a platoon situation should help him.

I don't believe it helped Pena's future in Cincy that he chose to play for the Dominican Republic rather than get needed at bats to work on his development. If he had continued to put up numbers like he did in the second half, his value would have fallen badly.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I must have misunderstood. I don't read entire threads, particularly if they're long.

you don't read the section that you quoted?

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Spitball

This was a bad trade but the Reds survived. In fact, within four years they were in the World Series and on the verge of becoming one of the greatest teams of all time.

Reds would have won a couple more WS championships without the deal. Mistakes matter.

For the record, I'm happy that WayneK is making the right kinds of moves. This one was coldly logical and courageous, and recent Reds GMs have been either illogical, emotional, or cowardly.

Now that we've got someone who can do what needs to be done, I'm awaiting better execution of what needs to be done.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Spitball

Wait a minute, you brought this guy's name into the discussion. What is your point? Throw out the "beginning of the season" comment because this was at a point he was putting up good numbers (337/385/629 line, with 23 homers in 315 ABs) which resulted in a rich contract at the end of the season.

My point is by then, Guillen was what... 26-27? He had subpar years prior, and was released by TB.

WMP is 24, has consistently shown his power potential, and his seasons DWARFED anything Guillen had done prior to being in the middle of his breakout/one year wonder season. Remember at the time, it could have easily been a one year wonder..

Now Guillen does offer a cannon for an arm, I'll give you that. WMP has a pretty good arm too, though he needs to harness it a bit.

My point is WMP had more value than Guillen. He's younger, produced more at a younger age, has no history of attacking walls, and is reputed to have an outstanding work ethic coupled with a willingness to learn.

[pedro]

I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.

Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by pedro

I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.

Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)

Good points, Pedro. You show that comparing trades must recognize the market conditions when attempting to assign fair value to a player. The time of year that a player is valued will certainly affect that.

But, one cannot then say that a player's value will always be higher if the attempt to deal is made during a pennant race because one does not know who the contenders will be (and I would not recommend making any suppositions on who might be) and if they will need your most marketable commodities to push their value up. While that was certainly an option Krivsky could have taken here and assumed the risk that WMP value would hold or continue to increase, he decided to cash in on current value, which Arroyo was arguably (not by me, but others make good points) pretty fair shakes.