BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by princeton

you don't read the section that you quoted?

I really don't feel like explaining my point further. Your post made nothing explicit, or particularly implicit.

The whole Pena/Sosa comparison is absurd anyway--Sosa took a long time to grow into his power. Pena's already there and isn't going to get stronger or bigger. Pitchers already know his power and they know how to pitch to him. It's working.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I really don't feel like explaining my point further.

apparently, you did

[TRF]

Originally Posted by pedro

I think you are underestimating the boost in value that Guillen got from being a player playing to his ptential (or above it) in the midst of a pennat race.

Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

WMP OTOH, while pehaps having a higher ceiling than Guillen, still is a project and is not viewed as an everyday player by many, including his new employers. (see 3 year OPS split against RH of .740)

I buy that, and it's an excellent point. But Boston just lost it's CF to the Yankees. WMP in the right hands he might be ready to explode. Of all the teams not named the Reds, the Red Sox seem like the very best environment for that to happen. Trot Nixon is likely in his last year in Boston, strong D.R. contingent, and the focus won't be on his PT, it'll be on Big Papi and Manny and Schilling etc.

The Red Sox had a desire to fill Damon's shoes, and obviously felt Crisp wasn't enough of an answer. They were ripe to overpay, and there were no other OF's on the market.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I really don't feel like explaining my point further. Your post made nothing explicit, or particularly implicit.

The whole Pena/Sosa comparison is absurd anyway--Sosa took a long time to grow into his power. Pena's already there and isn't going to get stronger or bigger. Pitchers already know his power and they know how to pitch to him. It's working.

This implies there is no development on Pena's part. I'd say his winter stats coupled with his spring stats indicate he is developing.

[Johnny Footstool]

Guillen got good value because it was a trade for immediate need in a pennant race and because he was viewed as an everyday player.

Which begs the question: Why trade Pena now? Why not wait until the pennant races heat up and send him to someone *desperate* for offense?

"Because he might not be playing well by the pennant race" is the pat answer. Well, if his current value is so low that he'll only bring Arroyo in a trade, you might as well hang onto him while he's cheap and hope he plays well. If he doesn't, big deal -- his value drops slightly, and his potential loses a bit of sheen. If he does, you can land an Arroyo type plus a prospect or two with decent ceilings.

I know that waiting is an abomination to those of you fed up with DanO's impotence and thirsting for action, action, action. But selling low is a panic move, and you never get the best end of the deal in a panic move.

[pedro]

I think WMP is going to make a really good platoon partner with Nixon and will help to make up some of the supposed offensive loss from Damon (although I think he's going to drop off quickly and they were lucky he went to yanks) but I highly doubt he ever sees CF in Boston. At least not with Manny in left.

[traderumor]

I still see this trade as two teams trading from excess to fill an immediate need and future need at the same time. That is not panic, that is why you make trades in the first place.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Which begs the question: Why trade Pena now? Why not wait until the pennant races heat up and send him to someone *desperate* for offense?

"Because he might not be playing well by the pennant race" is the pat answer. Well, if his current value is so low that he'll only bring Arroyo in a trade, you might as well hang onto him while he's cheap and hope he plays well. If he doesn't, big deal -- his value drops slightly, and his potential loses a bit of sheen. If he does, you can land an Arroyo type plus a prospect or two with decent ceilings.

I know that waiting is an abomination to those of you fed up with DanO's impotence and thirsting for action, action, action. But selling low is a panic move, and you never get the best end of the deal in a panic move.

For the reasons you listed, plus the fact that he doesn't hit RH's well and the little issue with the Reds needing SP NOW.

Like it or not, Arroyo may have been the best pitcher availble to the Reds this year and I think they realized that the needed to add pitching now, not at the all star break. Not that Arroyo will put them over the top, but teh innings he provides will help them not abuse their other pitchers, which might have made them less valuable over time as well.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I still see this trade as two teams trading from excess to fill an immediate need and future need at the same time. That is not panic, that is why you make trades in the first place.

An excess of #4 starters is not a pool the Reds need to swim in.

You make a trade not to help your trading partner but to better your team. If you help that trading partner, great. That lays a foundation for future dealings. In this case though, Arroyo simply wasn't enough. However, for me at least, Matt Clement would have been enough.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by TRF

An excess of #4 starters is not a pool the Reds need to swim in.

You make a trade not to help your trading partner but to better your team. If you help that trading partner, great. That lays a foundation for future dealings. In this case though, Arroyo simply wasn't enough. However, for me at least, Matt Clement would have been enough.

I know Arroyo is no great shakes, but the Reds were in a position where they didn't even have 5 guys to run out there that belonged in the majors. That's not a good position to be in.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by pedro

For the reasons you listed, plus the fact that he doesn't hit RH's well and the little issue with the Reds needing SP NOW.
...

I know Arroyo is no great shakes, but the Reds were in a position where they didn't even have 5 guys to run out there that belonged in the majors. That's not a good position to be in.

What's the immediacy?

The Reds have been in that position for 5 years. They were a lousy team for those 5 years, and they'll be a lousy team for the next couple of years. Arroyo doesn't really change the situation that much.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

What's the immediacy?

The Reds have been in that position for 5 years. They were a lousy team for those 5 years, and they'll be a lousy team for the next couple of years. Arroyo doesn't really change the situation that much.

b/c being that thin has a ripple effect throughout the whole pitching staff and organization causing overuse and rushing of pitchers which make it hard to improve the staff, even incrementally, over time.

[westofyou]

What's the immediacy?

Three years of declining attendance and the need to reupp the corporate box holders.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by TRF

An excess of #4 starters is not a pool the Reds need to swim in.

You make a trade not to help your trading partner but to better your team. If you help that trading partner, great. That lays a foundation for future dealings. In this case though, Arroyo simply wasn't enough. However, for me at least, Matt Clement would have been enough.

Do you really think Clement would outperform Arroyo enough to warrant the extra money that would have to be doled out? I don't.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Do you really think Clement would outperform Arroyo enough to warrant the extra money that would have to be doled out? I don't.

I do.

And BTW, what's going to happen with the money the Reds saved by acquiring Arroyo?

Krivsky's Twins don't exactly have a track record of signing marquee free agent talent.