Reds Pitching and Defense ===> Still Lousy

[Cyclone792]

Don't get me wrong, I love the 9-6 start, however, unless the Reds' pitching and defense dramatically improves overnight this team is a time bomb waiting to explode. The only reason we're 9-6 is because we're scoring an average of 6.33 runs per game, and that's a pace that would put this offense at 1,025 runs scored over a full season.

Our offense is great, yes, but we're not scoring over 1,000 runs this season. When the offense drops back down to reality - with reality being the still excellent average of about 5.00 runs per game - the losses will begin to mount. And don't we all know that's when a collection of idiots will begin blaming our hitters for the team's demise, just as M2 foreshadowed as a possibility earlier in the season. Batting average w/RISP and LOB totals will likely be the most cited reasons for the team's demise, and they will all be nothing more than ridiculous assertions, at best.

When the demise happens, and we're already seeing it beginning to unfold, it will be the sole responsibility of the pitching and defense. Unfortunately, what we've already seen through the first 15 games of this season on the mound and in the field isn't much different from what we've seen the previous three seasons. Here's a look at Reds' pitching this season vs. the league average as well as each of the past three seasons:

Sorry Pitching Staff     
vs. League Average       ERA    dERA    K/9    BB/9    HR/9    K/BB    WHIP

2003 Cincinnati Reds    5.09    4.90   5.80    3.67    1.30    1.58    1.50
2003 National League    4.28    4.34   6.65    3.42    1.05    1.94    1.38

2004 Cincinnati Reds    5.19    5.00   6.19    3.57    1.47    1.73    1.50
2004 National League    4.30    4.38   6.74    3.38    1.11    1.99    1.39

2005 Cincinnati Reds    5.15    4.75   6.00    3.09    1.38    1.94    1.50
2005 National League    4.22    4.27   6.57    3.29    1.02    1.99    1.38

2006 Cincinnati Reds    5.66    4.89   7.43    2.93    1.77    2.53    1.53                  
2006 National League    4.76    4.70   6.56    3.59    1.28    1.83    1.43

dERA stands for Defense Independent Pitching ERA, and already this season we're back up to 4.89 in dERA, similar to each of the past three seasons. This season's early high dERA total, and high ERA, is thanks in large part to our staff's favorite hobby: giving up the long ball.

Probably the best news from those lines, if there is any, is that our BB/9 and K/BB rates have been slowly improving since 2003. In 15 games this season, our K/9 rate has jumped up to nearly 7.5 K's per nine innings, but I have a difficult time believing our pitchers will be able to hold on to that ratio.

The HR/9 rates our pitchers love to show off speak for themselves, and the arms take much more blame for that than our ballpark does. Given the way our park plays for home runs, an average pitching staff in HR/9 would still only give up about 1.15 to 1.20 HR/9 playing in GABP. Year in and year out, however, our pitchers have been dwarfing the park factor allowances for home runs allowed with totals well over 1.30 HR/9. Heck, this season we may even eclipse 1.50 HR/9, especially if Milton hangs around.

Here's another ugly stat for 2006: Opposing hitters are hitting .298/.351/.523 off Reds pitching. That's an OPS against of .874. The league average OPS is high compared to recent seasons, and it's only about .790 right now. Our pitching staff is taking league average hitters and handing them nearly 100 free points of OPS. It's absurd.

Add in the fact that the Reds' Defensive Efficiency Ratio through Tuesday night's game was an abysmal .682, good for 27th among all MLB teams, and the early returns are just more of the same with shades of misery from 2003-2005 creeping on in.

Either this pitching staff reaches out and grabs a magic cure, or we're in for yet another long, painful season, despite the mirage of our current 9-6 record. I want this team to win as much as everyone else, and I hope I'm entirely wrong here, but right now I just don't see our early success continuing for the rest of the season.

[Chip R]

In other news, the sun came up in the east today. :

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Chip R

In other news, the sun came up in the east today. :

It's been cloudy around here with all the early attention focused on BA w/RISP offensively.

[Johnny Footstool]

I will say this: the K/9 and K/BB ratios are extremely encouraging. Stunning, even.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

I will say this: the K/9 and K/BB ratios are extremely encouraging. Stunning, even.

If you go back and check the ERA leaders each season, those teams that have pitchers that put up a 2:1 K:W ratio for the entire season
usually end up in the top half of the league in pitching. If you are below 2:1, you are usually in the bottom half.

So, if the Reds ratio remains good, the odds of their ERA dropping should be good.

[paulrichjr]

I will say this... This ballpark along with our horrible defense is going to mean that our pitching is always going to be below average.

[Fullboat]

Small Sample Size!!!! Last year was last year and the year before last year and......
oh nevermind. Abandon Ship!! outta my way.

[Benny-Distefano]

Well I for one am willing to give them until at least .... May.

[Highlifeman21]

Giving up 20 runs to the Marlins, of all teams, in the last two games pretty much tells me that the Reds trip back to earth is around the corner. I have no doubt that by the time we take a full lap around the NL Central, we'll be lucky to be @ .500, at best.

The writing is on the wall. We have quite possibly one of if not the worst defensive SS in baseball. Our best chance at good defense in CF is playing in AAA right now, and his initials are CD. Our latest addition to 2B by committee (not to be confused with our other favorite by committee position: closer) is probably our best defensive option at SS (read: Brandon Phillips).

Hopefully WK will force Narron's hand and make some kind of move to 1, get us to having only 2 catchers on the 25 man roster, and 2, realize that 5+ runs/game is plenty of offense and we need to badly upgrade defensively.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

The writing is on the wall. We have quite possibly one of if not the worst defensive SS in baseball. .

no

[remdog]

That's nice stat work Cyclone but it's hardly a revelation. All you have to do is watch this team play and you know the same thing.

Certainly, there were no trades this winter that were going to change this around in a hurry. An opportunity to (slightly) improve the 'D' at first and left field got shelved. We've got a team that is only one player short of being able to field a 'starting eight' made up solely of catchers and 2nd basemen---no wonder we can't play defense!

I really don't see this turning around till the off-season when Krivsky can hopefully make some deals and possibly sign a quality free-agent. I hope I'm wrong but, until then, I'll just wallow along in the self-pity that is a Reds fans fate and at least enjoy the fireworks.

Rem

[PickOff]

The Reds have 2 starters under 4 ERA, 2 over 6 ERA, and 1 over 8 ERA, with Claussen leading the way. And of course the stellar bullpen work.

It is mighty hard to have faith in this staff. Harang will probably settle down to around 4 or so, but can Claussen and Arroyo keep it up? As far as Milton and Williams go, uggh. It looks like Krivsky needs to make another couple moves for a starter and a reliever. I don't think any of the starters deserve a rush to judgement at this point, but if there is not improvement by the end of May, there needs to be a trade, not just a call up.

Krivsky should move for a closer or top set-up guy now if he can, however. I really don't care who he trades so long as there is commensurate value in return. We must give up some hitting for pitching here.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by reds44

no

Last year he was and you know it. In numerous threads you've seen the stats, yet you refuse to believe them? Lopez is horrible defensively and you need to step into reality and acknowledge this common truth.

[PickOff]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Last year he was and you know it. In numerous threads you've seen the stats, yet you refuse to believe them? Lopez is horrible defensively and you need to step into reality and acknowledge this common truth.

Lopez was rated as average, I believe, in the fielder's bible.

[KronoRed]

I think we as Reds fans seem him as being good because he's not the monolith we had starting at the start of last year.