Would You Do This Deal For Marlins' Willis?

[Krusty]

Something to chew on:

Florida trades LHP Dontrelle Willis for RHP Homer Bailey, OF Chris Denorifa and RHP Elizardo Ramirez.

If you're both teams, would you do it?

[westofyou]

If the Reds sent a gun with the three players the Marlins GM would shoot himself in the head after he came down.

[pedro]

that's an incredibly lopsided trade.

[BoCcc2832]

Maybe the Marlins would do it because they would be getting three young prospects, with the potential of Homer Bailey being the number one pitcher the Marlins would be losing in Willis. However, if I'm Krivsky, there's no way I would do it. With Junior, Mercker, Weathers, and Hatteberg getting older, you must surround the team with young prospects, especially Bailey and Ramirez. No deal.

[guttle11]

From a Reds perspective, no. Homer Bailey has #1 type stuff, Denorfia could be a very solid OFer, and Lizard has the stuff to be a Harang type pitcher down the road.

I look at it as the Reds potentially trading 30-35 wins for 18-22 in a couple of years. I say no.

[Krusty]

Originally Posted by westofyou

If the Reds sent a gun with the three players the Marlins GM would shoot himself in the head after he came down.

Such violence WOY! I see you must be watching the Sopranos.

Anyways, if Krivsky could acquire Willis without gutting the roster, this franchise could generate more excitement that hasn't been seen since 1999. Willis would give the club the frontline starter to go with Harang and Arroyo......something this club hasn't seen in a long time.

[Patrick Bateman]

No way the Fish do this, and no way the Reds turn it down.

Bailey's chances of becoming a #1 pitcher is about 1 in a hundred. If the Fish are giving up Willis they need a much safer return meaning a better chance of getting a future ace for him.

Denorfia's a nice player but he's no Dontrelle, and Lizard is still a very fringe prospect at this point.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by guttle11

From a Reds perspective, no. Homer Bailey has #1 type stuff.

There have been a lot of pitchers with #1 stuff that never even came close to their potential. Willis IS a #1 Starter, and that is worth a lot more than a prospect that may be a #1 starter in the future if everything goes right. Bpttom line is teams would pay a lot more than that offer to get a pitcher with the porven success of Willis.

[indyred]

how many years till d train hits total free agency.........i'd want him locked up for few years......if he is at a decent price.....i'm all for this kind of deal....Willis has shown he is #1 type pitcher and he's young......not many of those guys around.....i agree with Austin K here.........no way the Reds would turn down this deal, if D train is locked up awhile..........

[IslandRed]

I'd do it if I was the Reds, sure. Willis is the type of pitcher Bailey will be if he's lucky, I don't think Ramirez is anything special, and while I like Denorfia, he's replaceable.

From the Marlins' perspective, probably not, unless they decide Willis has to go and that's the best offer on the table, and I doubt it would be if they actively shop him.

[guttle11]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

There have been a lot of pitchers with #1 stuff that never even came close to their potential. Willis IS a #1 Starter, and that is worth a lot more than a prospect that may be a #1 starter in the future if everything goes right. Bpttom line is teams would pay a lot more than that offer to get a pitcher with the porven success of Willis.

Maybe so, then I'd let them. I think Bailey is a 18-22 game winner for the Reds and Lizard could just as well win 10-15 games a year. That's 28-37 wins against the 18-22 Willis will give you.

To me, there's no question.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by guttle11

Maybe so, then I'd let them. I think Bailey is a 18-22 game winner for the Reds and Lizard could just as well win 10-15 games a year. That's 28-37 wins against the 18-22 Willis will give you.

To me, there's no question.

18-22 eh?

Most since in the last 35 years.... doesn't look like a sure thing.

WINS                          YEAR      W     
1    Danny Jackson            1988       23   
T2   Tom Browning             1985       20   
T2   Jim Merritt              1970       20   
T4   Jack Billingham          1973       19   
T4   Jack Billingham          1974       19   
T6   Mario Soto               1984       18   
T6   Don Gullett              1973       18   
T6   Pete Schourek            1995       18   
T6   Tom Browning             1988       18   
T6   Gary Nolan               1970       18

[guttle11]

Originally Posted by westofyou

18-22 eh?

Most since in the last 35 years.... doesn't look like a sure thing.

WINS                          YEAR      W     
1    Danny Jackson            1988       23   
T2   Tom Browning             1985       20   
T2   Jim Merritt              1970       20   
T4   Jack Billingham          1973       19   
T4   Jack Billingham          1974       19   
T6   Mario Soto               1984       18   
T6   Don Gullett              1973       18   
T6   Pete Schourek            1995       18   
T6   Tom Browning             1988       18   
T6   Gary Nolan               1970       18

I didn't say it was a sure thing, because it's not. From what I have seen of Bailey, I'd liken him to Kerry Wood with good mechanics. Hard fastball and a great curve. He has the ability to become an 18-22 game winner. More so than any Reds pitching prospect since Browning, probably.

[pedro]

Tell me about it when Bailey has actually accomplished something.

[WVRed]

Would I? Yes.

Would Florida? If you mean laugh in our face, then yes.

Add Edwin Encarnacion to the mix and you might have a deal.