Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Wheelhouse · 05-01-2006, 09:50 PM

So word around (Bob Brenly and other analysts) is that Arroyo's success is because the NL hasn't seen him--just wait they say, and Arroyo will come back to career norms. My response to that is:
1) Arroyo is not a fastballer who hitters need to get their timing on, or a junk pitcher who hitters need to get their timing on- he throws a fastball at three arm angles, he throws a nasty curve at three arm angles, and a changeup. He has basically seven pitches. And he uses them smartly and is able to change tactics and adjust mid-game. He's a smart pitcher with a lot of variety in his arsenal. No matter how many times you see him.
2) I don't think at 29 you have met the final definition of who you are as a pitcher. At 32 you have, but I still think there's some upcurve left in Arroyo's talent being realized.

The Red Sox must be kicking themselves.

membengal · 05-01-2006, 09:53 PM

Well, it could also be said in response that Cubs and Cards have each seen him twice now, and he was better in the second starts against each of those clubs than the first...

Matt700wlw · 05-01-2006, 09:55 PM

Pitchers adjust too...at this point, it looks like Bronson's adjustments are better than the oppositions adjustments.

Nugget · 05-01-2006, 09:56 PM

In case Bob has been reading from the same factbook as Hal, Arroyo was originally an NL pitcher. Although he may have refined himself in the three years in Boston he came up through the NL and debuted with Pittsburgh so I don't see how that can really hold water. What about Mulder et al are they going to say they pitched well last year because the NL hasn't seen them.

Wheelhouse · 05-01-2006, 09:57 PM

Very good point.

CrackerJack · 05-01-2006, 09:57 PM

Well I don't expect him to pitch 1 run complete games every time out.

Something like an NL adjusted career norm would actually be just fine with this team. If he has a big year then all the better. If not, he should still win games and provide rotation stability all year long.

BoCcc2832 · 05-01-2006, 09:58 PM

Don't forget he has that wicked breaking ball strike out pitch. In my opinion, that's his bread and butter pitch

minus5 · 05-01-2006, 09:59 PM

Man, he just looked sharper each time through the lineup tonight. I've had a big goofy grin during each game he's pitched.

Fullboat · 05-01-2006, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

Pitchers adjust too...at this point, it looks like Bronson's adjustments are better than the oppositions adjustments.

Bingo! J. Encarnacion hit a homer and after that zippo.

traderumor · 05-01-2006, 10:53 PM

Brenly's analysis is typical, but with interleague play this isn't quite as big a factor as it once was. But don't let that stop someone from making a lazy prediction. More exposure to a pitcher will likely help the hitting team, but some of what he is doing is just a marvelous mixing of speeds, pitch types and locations.

Sea Ray · 05-01-2006, 11:18 PM

These guys need to actually watch him pitch. He hits his spots, changes speeds, has good movement and throws 91 MPH when he needs to. How is that not a recipe for success in this league? It's not luck that he's 5-0. He has really pitched well.

Superdude · 05-01-2006, 11:18 PM

That actually is a possibility though. Arroyo was great in his first go 'round in the AL, but was more hittable in his second year with the Sox. You normally don't see that big of a drop off in K rate after one season. He seems to be back on his game after switching leagues and seeing some new hitters, but maybe it is just his tricky style that's catching everyone off guard right now? It'll be interesting to see how he performs next year and if the pattern continues. (Hopefully he's just a better pitcher than he was a year ago and is on his way to a Cy Young

)

pedro · 05-01-2006, 11:23 PM

I expect Arroyo's ERA to be around 4 this year.

Sea Ray · 05-01-2006, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pedro

I expect Arroyo's ERA to be around 4 this year.

Any starter on this team with an ERA of 4 will be a winner, especially if it includes a lot of innings. This staff has not enjoyed a lot of 4.00 ERA starters in recent years.

smith288 · 05-01-2006, 11:52 PM

I heard them basically say that the NL is a wuss league in terms of hitters so Arroyo is just mowing down the pathetic NL. I think Arroyo is a good pitcher but what do i know?

05-01-2006, 09:50 PM	#1
Wheelhouse Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: New York Posts: 2,849	Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo So word around (Bob Brenly and other analysts) is that Arroyo's success is because the NL hasn't seen him--just wait they say, and Arroyo will come back to career norms. My response to that is: 1) Arroyo is not a fastballer who hitters need to get their timing on, or a junk pitcher who hitters need to get their timing on- he throws a fastball at three arm angles, he throws a nasty curve at three arm angles, and a changeup. He has basically seven pitches. And he uses them smartly and is able to change tactics and adjust mid-game. He's a smart pitcher with a lot of variety in his arsenal. No matter how many times you see him. 2) I don't think at 29 you have met the final definition of who you are as a pitcher. At 32 you have, but I still think there's some upcurve left in Arroyo's talent being realized. The Red Sox must be kicking themselves. __________________ "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

05-01-2006, 09:53 PM	#2
membengal Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Baltimore Posts: 8,379	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Well, it could also be said in response that Cubs and Cards have each seen him twice now, and he was better in the second starts against each of those clubs than the first...

05-01-2006, 09:55 PM	#3
Matt700wlw Making sense of it all Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 26,130	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Pitchers adjust too...at this point, it looks like Bronson's adjustments are better than the oppositions adjustments. __________________ An excited shade of Red

05-01-2006, 09:56 PM	#4
Nugget Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: NorthEast Posts: 1,002	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo In case Bob has been reading from the same factbook as Hal, Arroyo was originally an NL pitcher. Although he may have refined himself in the three years in Boston he came up through the NL and debuted with Pittsburgh so I don't see how that can really hold water. What about Mulder et al are they going to say they pitched well last year because the NL hasn't seen them.

05-01-2006, 09:57 PM	#5
Wheelhouse Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: New York Posts: 2,849	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Very good point. __________________ "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

05-01-2006, 09:57 PM	#6
CrackerJack Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 4,923	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Well I don't expect him to pitch 1 run complete games every time out. Something like an NL adjusted career norm would actually be just fine with this team. If he has a big year then all the better. If not, he should still win games and provide rotation stability all year long.

05-01-2006, 09:58 PM	#7
BoCcc2832 Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Hilliard, OH Posts: 533	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Don't forget he has that wicked breaking ball strike out pitch. In my opinion, that's his bread and butter pitch __________________ Reds record while I was in attendance in 2006: 7-2 Reds record while I was in attendance in 2007: 2-0 Reds record while I'm in attendance in 2008: 0-1 "I wish the stadium was filled up every night." - Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Enquirer - February 9, 2007

05-01-2006, 09:59 PM	#8
minus5 Zoinks! Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Edgewood, KY Posts: 575	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Man, he just looked sharper each time through the lineup tonight. I've had a big goofy grin during each game he's pitched.

05-01-2006, 10:53 PM	#10
traderumor Unsolicited Opinions Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Right Down Broadway Posts: 17,638	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo Brenly's analysis is typical, but with interleague play this isn't quite as big a factor as it once was. But don't let that stop someone from making a lazy prediction. More exposure to a pitcher will likely help the hitting team, but some of what he is doing is just a marvelous mixing of speeds, pitch types and locations. __________________ Can't win with 'em Can't win without 'em

05-01-2006, 11:18 PM	#11
Sea Ray Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 15,254	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo These guys need to actually watch him pitch. He hits his spots, changes speeds, has good movement and throws 91 MPH when he needs to. How is that not a recipe for success in this league? It's not luck that he's 5-0. He has really pitched well.

05-01-2006, 11:18 PM	#12
Superdude Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,430	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo That actually is a possibility though. Arroyo was great in his first go 'round in the AL, but was more hittable in his second year with the Sox. You normally don't see that big of a drop off in K rate after one season. He seems to be back on his game after switching leagues and seeing some new hitters, but maybe it is just his tricky style that's catching everyone off guard right now? It'll be interesting to see how he performs next year and if the pattern continues. (Hopefully he's just a better pitcher than he was a year ago and is on his way to a Cy Young )

05-01-2006, 11:23 PM	#13
pedro Please come again Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: portland, oregon Posts: 14,716	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo I expect Arroyo's ERA to be around 4 this year. __________________ Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

05-01-2006, 11:52 PM	#15
smith288 Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: New Albany, OH Posts: 7,197	Re: Comments on "experts" analyzing Arroyo I heard them basically say that the NL is a wuss league in terms of hitters so Arroyo is just mowing down the pathetic NL. I think Arroyo is a good pitcher but what do i know? __________________ Did you like that?

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