MLB Draft

[dougdirt]

I would take a chance at Hochever if he fell to the Reds, but I dont think he will fall that far if he makes it back into the draft.

[edabbs44]

Jim Callis had a draft chat on Espn.com yesterday...here are the questions I found interesting.

Alex (Seattle, WA): Where do you see the Mariners going at #5? Do they pick the local kid Lincecum if he is availible?

Jim Callis: It's still early, so there's a lot more speculation than concrete info in projecting the first round at this point. (I have a mock first round from last week up at baseballamerica.com.) The Mariners probably will take a college pitcher, the strength of this draft. The name I've heard associated with them the most at this point is Luke Hochevar, who's pitching for an indy team in Fort Worth. He's showing plus stuff and so-so command, all in all been pretty impressive.

Dave (Chandler): I hear high school pitchers Kyle Drabek and Kasey Kiker have good stuff but character questions. What are the concerns? And how good is Kiker's stuff, and does he fall into the 2nd round or further?

Jim Callis: That's as much as we've felt comfortable as saying in print, and I'm not going to elaborate here. But the concerns are serious enough that Drabek could fall into the mid- to late first round, and Kiker could drop into the second. On talent alone, Drabek would be a top five or 10 pick and Kiker would go in the second half of the first round.

Jeff (Barrie, ON): Where do you think Tim Lincecum will go in the draft? Any chance he falls to the Jays?

Jim Callis: Not everyone is sold on Lincecum because of his size and delivery, and he's looking a little tired after a long season. If he doesn't go No. 1 to the Royals, and the Mariners go after Hochevar, Lincecum could drop farther than expected. But I don't think he gets to the Jays at No. 14.

Jeff (Grand Rapids, MI): Any idea who the Tigers would like to see when it's their turn to pick? I've heard that this is going to be a pretty weak draft, so are there any easy picks?

Jim Callis: The Tigers pick sixth, and I keep hearing the same two names: Texas HS LHP Clayton Kershaw and Texas Longhorns OF Drew Stubbs. They should have a chance at at least one of the two.

Bob ((Grand Rapids, MI)): Who, in your mind, in the top prospects, has the biggest chance to be a major bust and why?

Jim Callis: Three names jump out among the first 15 prospects on our Top 200 list, not necessarily as busts but as possible disappointments. Stanford RHP Greg Reynolds (No. 5) has all the ingredients scouts look for in a pitcher, but the sum is less than the total of the parts. Texas OF Drew Stubbs (No. 11) has great tools but there are a lot of questions on his bat. If he disappointed with the bat in the majors, it wouldn't be a shock. And North Carolina RHP Daniel Bard (No. 15) never has dominated consistently as much as his stuff would indicate he should.

Scott (Durham, NC): Hey Jim, Drew Stubbs seems to have fans and critics who shout equally loud. I know that BA has him ranked highly for defense and with the bat (power). Is the concern that he won't make consistent contact?

Jim Callis: Yes, that's it in a nutshell. No one doubts that he'll be a Gold Glove center fielder. He can run, he has power and he has makeup. But I have yet to talk to a scouting director who's fully convinced he'll hit.

Jeff (Iowa): Is Jaba Chamberlain still a first round pick?

Jim Callis: Yes, Nebraska RHP Joba Chamberlain is still a first-rounder despite a mild bout with triceps tendinitis this spring. He should go in the first 10-15 picks, which would make him the highest-drafted Native American ever.

JT (Lynchburg, VA): Jeremy Jeffress in our area is lighting up the guns. First round pick? Where?

Jim Callis: Definite first-round pick who has shown great velocity every time out this spring. I think he could go as high as seven (Dodgers) and as low as 19 (Marlins).

a.n. (nyc): Win shares or VORP?

Jim Callis: Plusses and minuses to both . . . I think Win Shares are more accessible to the common fan.

[Superdude]

Kiker could drop into the second.

I sure hope these make up issues are big enough for Kiker to drop to us. Holy crap that'd be sweet!

[Outshined_One]

See, normally makeup issues and that sort of thing make it to print. Remember when Milledge had that alleged run-in with a minor that dogged him prior to the '03 draft?

What's worrisome is that everyone is being tight-lipped about Drabek's and Kiker's issues. It's like these guys might have ties to organized crime or something.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Outshined_One

See, normally makeup issues and that sort of thing make it to print. Remember when Milledge had that alleged run-in with a minor that dogged him prior to the '03 draft?

What's worrisome is that everyone is being tight-lipped about Drabek's and Kiker's issues. It's like these guys might have ties to organized crime or something.

You better watch what you say or you might be enjoying some cement shoes soon

I do find it really odd that it is acknowledged that they have these "issues" but no one will say what that they are....it makes you wonder even more.

[Outshined_One]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You better watch what you say or you might be enjoying some cement shoes soon

Don't worry, I know people who owe me favors.

They know people.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I sure hope these make up issues are big enough for Kiker to drop to us. Holy crap that'd be sweet!

I'd stay away from him. He's snapped off too many curves in his young life and he's got a reliever's build. My guess is he's already seen his best days on the baseball diamond.

[cincinnati chili]

I wonder if some of you draft mavens can tell me about a few guys, beyond what might be obtained from Baseball America:

1. Steven Holmes - RHP at Univ. of Rhode Island
2. Chad Huffman - 2B at Texas Christian

Also, does anyone know how "committed" Torre Langley (catcher from a Georgia High school) is to Georgia Tech? I know he's not a big guy, but I don't understand why he's projected so late in te mock drafts. At the very least, he hasn't proven that he throw out runners.

[jmcclain19]

BA's Draft Tracker -

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/261330.html

Here's a look at which prospects' draft stock is on the rise, and which ones are sliding down lists. One important caveat: This list is based on talent, not a prediction of the order in which the players will be selected. Players move up and down the list based on what we hear about their draft status, not based on their results.

1. Andrew Miller, lhp, North Carolina
North Carolina's all-time strikeout leader struggled in a start Wednesday against North Carolina State, coughing up an early three-run lead and yielding seven runs in six innings.

2. Tim Lincecum, rhp, Washington
No one doubts his electric stuff and everyone thinks he's a freak of nature (in a good way). But who will draft him? It's hard to find a fit two weeks out.
3. Brad Lincoln, rhp, Houston
Consistent. Plus. Stuff. And he can hit, clubbing his 12th homer Wednesday in Houston's Conference USA tournament victory.

4. Evan Longoria, 3b/2b, Long Beach State
He probably would have lasted into the 11-15 range had he been eligible in 2005, but he's a cinch to be the first college hitter drafted this year.
5. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Stanford
No draft prospect has improved his stock as much in April and May as Reynolds, whose frame and late rise remind us some of Bryan Bullington. However, Reynolds had his worst outing in a month on Friday, losing to UCLA and giving up a season-worst 11 hits.
6. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Highland Park HS, Dallas
Coming back from a strained oblique muscle, Kershaw showed he was healthy with a truly perfect game: 15 batters faced, 15 strikeouts. He's still the top prep player on the board.
7. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Nebraska
While he's thrown well of late, Chamberlain had to work hard to get 5 1/3 innings in his last start as the Cornhuskers continue a late-season fade.
8. Max Scherzer, rhp, Missouri
The hard-throwing Scherzer had his best results of the year at the right time, shutting down the best team he's faced all year, Texas, on three hits over seven innings.
9. Luke Hochevar, rhp, Fort Worth Cats (independent American Association)
The Dodgers still control his rights while he auditions in independent ball, and so far, he's flashed plus pitches while also showing some rust.
10. Brandon Morrow, rhp, California
He's shown improved secondary stuff and improved results (1.74 ERA) to go with his above-average velocity.
11. Drew Stubbs, of, Texas
Went 6-for-11 against Missouri with four walks over the weekend, but scouts continue to wonder about his bat.
12. Kyle Drabek, rhp/ss, The Woodlands (Texas) HS
Homered and went the distance to help lead The Woodlands into the next round of Texas' state playoffs. Even though he may be the nation's top prep position player, he has more pro value on the mound.
13. Pedro Beato, rhp, St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC
The Mets don't have a first-round pick, but they have a first-round talent under their control. Everyone expects them to sign the 17th-round 2005 draft-and-follow.
14. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Halifax County HS, South Boston, Va.
Big stuff in a small package. If his breaking ball were more consistent, he'd be in the top 10.
15. Daniel Bard, rhp, North Carolina
Sort of this year's version of Justin Verlander: big stuff with vexing college results. The caveat on that comparison is that Bard has never shown the kind of breaking ball Verlander had as an amateur.
16. Kyle McCulloch, rhp, Texas
Great changeup, a knack for pitching and big-game experience. Some organizations really go for that sort of thing.
17. Bill Rowell, 3b, Bishop Eustace Prep, Sewell, N.J.
Struggled in his matchup with the best pitcher in New Jersey, but he has big lefthanded power and some polish and will go good.
18. Travis Snider, of/1b, Jackson HS, Everett, Wash.
Big-bodied former football player would go higher if he were closer to 225 pounds than his current 240.
19. Brett Anderson, lhp, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
Son of OK State coach Frank Anderson has the knack for pitching usually found with college or pro pitchers.
20. Hank Conger, c, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Switch-hitter with legitimate power, and his improved catching skills have impressed scouts.
21. Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State

Made his first appearance since April with two innings out of the bullpen against Indiana State and should get a sterner test in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament.

22. David Huff, lhp, UCLA
Three schools in three years, lefty with a plus secondary pitch (a changeup) out of the Pacific-10 Conference . . . sounds a little like Barry Zito.
23. Chris Marrero, 3b, Monsignor Pace HS, Miami
Top prep bat in the preseason, he was outshined by his teammate, Adrian Cardenas, all season and saw his stock slip.
24. Justin Masterson, rhp, San Diego State
Giant (6-foot-6, 245 pounds) righthander was roughed up by Utah in the Mountain West tournament (five innings, six runs), likely his last college start.

25. Jordan Walden, rhp, Mansfield (Texas) HS
Preseason No. 1 prep talent hasn't shown the 99 mph gas he showed last summer to earn his former lofty status.
26. Chris Parmelee, of/1b, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS
Not the best prep hitter in the West (that's Snider) or the most powerful (Conger), but could be the best combination of the two.
27. Matt Antonelli, 3b/2b, Wake Forest
Athletic, patient, projectable college bat considered the second-safest pick after Longoria, probably will get drafted considerably higher than 27th.
28. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Russell County HS, Seale, Ala.
Significant track record for a prep lefty, and he has good stuff, but the makeup makes teams antsy to pop him in the first round.
29. Bryan Morris, rhp, Motlow State (Tenn.) CC
Couldn't work things out with the Devil Rays last spring but remains under control, and with his stuff (94-96 mph fastball, big, hard curve), he's not likely to re-enter the draft.
30. Kevin Mulvey, rhp, Villanova
Ignore his 3-8 record, and focus instead on Mulvey's sound mechanics, plus stuff and control (23 BB, 88 SO in 92 IP). His season is done, as 'Nova failed to qualify for the Big East tournament.

[OnBaseMachine]

Quick update from Friday's game on the three primary college players being mentioned as a possible Reds pick:

Drew Stubbs: 4-for-5 with a HR, three singles, walk

Brandon Morrow: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Greg Reynolds: 9 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 9 K

[cincyinco]

I think its entirely possible that if KC and the Mariners dont take Lincecum that he could fall to us... I'd take him, make him sit until next year as he's had a long year.. I would be ecstatic if we landed him.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

I think its entirely possible that if KC and the Mariners dont take Lincecum that he could fall to us... I'd take him, make him sit until next year as he's had a long year.. I would be ecstatic if we landed him.

I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. A HS pitcher would make me sad.

But the 2nd round looks pretty good also...there are a lot of big names trickling into the 40 or 50 range. Two I have seen are Kennedy and LaPorta. Landing either of those 2 in the 2nd would be great.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. A HS pitcher would make me sad.

sigh.....
Who is to say that some "college pitcher" is a better bet than Kershaw? Becuase he came from a college draft with hardly any talent that is pitching heavy only becuase it is hitting empty?

[cincyinco]

I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.

That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.

And sorry for my attrocious spelling..

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

sigh.....
Who is to say that some "college pitcher" is a better bet than Kershaw? Becuase he came from a college draft with hardly any talent that is pitching heavy only becuase it is hitting empty?

The enitre history of the draft where kids like Kershaw have NEVER made it.

Besides that, the Reds have already put too many eggs in the HS pitching basket. It's time the organization went out and got a more mature arm in a draft filled with more mature arms to choose from.