Brandon Phillips' struggles at the plate

[Cyclone792]

I've been rather amazed by the lack of notice and caring that people have given to the glaring black hole we've had sitting in the #7 slot in our lineup nearly every game for the past month.

Coming into tonight's game, Brandon Phillips has posted an outstanding OPS of .479 for the entire month of May. That's around 50 plate appearances and Phillips has given us production not much better than what we'd expect from a pitcher. To say that's absolutely terrible is being about as nice I as can be.

Here's what Phillips has done for us on the season:

            BA   OBP   SLG   PA/BB   HCPA%   PCPA%

Phillips  .288  .325  .432   20.17   30.6%   31.4%

HCPA% is the percentage of all PAs that end in a hitter's count, and PCPA% is the percentage of all the PAs that end in a pitcher's count.

What do we have here? Well, based solely on the strength of seven games, an overall tolerable batting line. However, Phillips has shown absolutely zero ability to control the strike zone this season as evidenced by the fact that he's had more plate appearances in pitcher's counts than hitting counts. He's also averaging just over 20 plate appearances per every walk drawn.

Folks, that's hard to do. That's Tony Womack territory for plate discipline.

Take out those seven games where Phillips was the epitomy of a blind squirrel finding a nut, and his batting line on the season is .225/.278/.263. That's good for a .541 OPS in roughly 90 plate appearances. Again, similar to his May OPS, outside of the week where Phillips won the Player of the Week Award, his batting prowess resembles that of your ordinary decent hitting major league pitcher.

Just in case people have forgotten, here's Phillips' career major league numbers:

            BA   OBP   SLG   PA/BB   HCPA%   PCPA%

Phillips  .223  .262  .335   23.32   27.6%   35.2%

Phillips' career minor league rate stats are .273/.334/.415, good for a career minor league OPS of .749. Even in the minor leagues where he should be walking regularly, he only drew a walk once for every 13.5 plate appearances. His plate discipline down in the farm was nothing special, and his overall hitting production in the minor leagues was also nothing special.

I know Phillips will not turn 25 until next month, but nothing in his history suggests that he will ever be a remotely decent hitter. He's simply just a terrible hitter with about as little plate discipline as any hitter can ever possibly have. Quite frankly, I'd highly recommend the Reds move him over to shortstop to see if we can grab as much value as possible out of his glove. At least as a shortstop as a guy with the potential to save a few runs defensively, his bat becomes much more tolerable. However, even his defensive work remains up in the air; while he's put up an above average zone rating, Baseball Prospectus has already credited him with -4 fielding runs above average at second base this season.

In the batter's box, if Brandon Phillips is the answer to anything, I don't want to know the question. And sadly, don't anyone think for one second that Jerry Narron won't be tempted to bat such a prolific out-making machine as high in the order as leadoff or second. There no better way to kill potential rallies than batting an out-prone hitter immediately in front of your big boppers.

Learn the strike zone and take a walk occasionally, Brandon, it won't harm you to do so.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I've been rather amazed by the lack of notice and caring that people have given to the glaring black hole we've had sitting in the #7 slot in our lineup nearly every game for the past month.

Coming into tonight's game, Brandon Phillips has posted an outstanding OPS of .479 for the entire month of May. That's around 50 plate appearances and Phillips has given us production not much better than what we'd expect from a pitcher. To say that's absolutely terrible is being about as nice I as can be.

Here's what Phillips has done for us on the season:

            BA   OBP   SLG   PA/BB   HCPA%   PCPA%

Phillips  .288  .325  .432   20.17   30.6%   31.4%

HCPA% is the percentage of all PAs that end in a hitter's count, and PCPA% is the percentage of all the PAs that end in a pitcher's count.

What do we have here? Well, based solely on the strength of seven games, an overall tolerable batting line. However, Phillips has shown absolutely zero ability to control the strike zone this season as evidenced by the fact that he's had more plate appearances in pitcher's counts than hitting counts. He's also averaging just over 20 plate appearances per every walk drawn.

Folks, that's hard to do. That's Tony Womack territory for plate discipline.

Take out those seven games where Phillips was the epitomy of a blind squirrel finding a nut, and his batting line on the season is .225/.278/.263. That's good for a .541 OPS in roughly 90 plate appearances. Again, similar to his May OPS, outside of the week where Phillips won the Player of the Week Award, his batting prowess resembles that of your ordinary decent hitting major league pitcher.

Just in case people have forgotten, here's Phillips' career major league numbers:

            BA   OBP   SLG   PA/BB   HCPA%   PCPA%

Phillips  .223  .262  .335   23.32   27.6%   35.2%

Phillips' career minor league rate stats are .273/.334/.415, good for a career minor league OPS of .749. Even in the minor leagues where he should be walking regularly, he only drew a walk once for every 13.5 plate appearances. His plate discipline down in the farm was nothing special, and his overall hitting production in the minor leagues was also nothing special.

I know Phillips will not turn 25 until next month, but nothing in his history suggests that he will ever be a remotely decent hitter. He's simply just a terrible hitter with about as little plate discipline as any hitter can ever possibly have. Quite frankly, I'd highly recommend the Reds move him over to shortstop to see if we can grab as much value as possible out of his glove. At least as a shortstop as a guy with the potential to save a few runs defensively, his bat becomes much more tolerable. However, even his defensive work remains up in the air; while he's put up an above average zone rating, Baseball Prospectus has already credited him with -4 fielding runs above average at second base this season.

In the batter's box, if Brandon Phillips is the answer to anything, I don't want to know the question. And sadly, don't anyone think for one second that Jerry Narron won't be tempted to bat such a prolific out-making machine as high in the order as leadoff or second. There no better way to kill potential rallies than batting an out-prone hitter immediately in front of your big boppers.

I've been saying it for weeks, but no sooner was my derision out of my mouth, the peanut gallery bashed me over the head with their "refusal to take a walk/scrapadelic" stick.

He's awful--everything in his past except for a couple of stints in the minors suggested he would be atrocious. And he is. I'd just as soon have Castro; they are one and the same thing.

But thanks for articulating more clearly what his numbers were screaming before.

[Mario-Rijo]

He's got to have some more time before he becomes the reason we are losing! Frankly I have seen a ton of the balls he has put into play were absolute lasers that happened to be right at someone. I don't really care if he is getting walks or not he is not striking out a ton and he is putting the ball in play. He is also not swinging at crap a majority of the time, although he has swung at a few sliders in the dirt as of late. He does alot right in my mind and if he doesn't take another walk the rest of the year it won't bother me a bit. There has been All-Stars in this league that all they do is play spectacular defense and are only ok with the stick, on this team I'll take it because at least he's doing something right. Now if at the All-Star break he is still hitting like this well then I might panic, but not right now!

[Aronchis]

As I said, the Phillips boom is over. He needs to return to the bench.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

He looks absolutely clueless at the plate right now. Downright sloppy. I now can see the Pokey Reese comparison.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

He looks absolutely clueless at the plate right now. Downright sloppy. I now can see the Pokey Reese comparison.

Besides Felipe, who on this team doesn't?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by reds44

Besides Felipe, who on this team doesn't?

All, but none of the others remind me of Pokey Reese.

Regardless, Phillips has looked pretty bad for a lot longer than the rest of the team's recent slump.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by reds44

Besides Felipe, who on this team doesn't?

Aaron Harang!

[BigRed]

Do you want Womack back? The whole team is slumping. Let's not panic. He's not as good as he was during his tear and is not as bad as he looks now. He is somewhere in the middle, but still our best option at 2B.

[kyle1976]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Do you want Womack back? The whole team is slumping. Let's not panic. He's not as good as he was during his tear and is not as bad as he looks now. He is somewhere in the middle, but still our best option at 2B.

Aurilia is a much better option at second base, when he is healthy of course.

[pedro]

I think the Reds shoudl stick with him.

But I do agree he needs to sit a little more frequently and Chambliss needs to be on his case.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by kyle1976

Aurilia is a much better option at second base, when he is healthy of course.

When this team is right it needs BP's D more then RA's O.

[KronoRed]

I think he'll get hot now and then, an Boone like guy.

[kbrake]

Rather have Castro? Thats a joke, Phillips is 25 and while I never believed he was going to hit at the pace he did the first week or so he is whole hell of alot better an option at 2nd then Womack, Castro, or Aurilia. He can play defense, and as it has been said the whole team looks like crap at the dish. I would not have a problem Narron giving him a few more days off but I think he will be alright.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Do you want Womack back? The whole team is slumping. Let's not panic. He's not as good as he was during his tear and is not as bad as he looks now. He is somewhere in the middle, but still our best option at 2B.

Let me be clear about one thing: there's not one ounce of panic in my post. Absolutely zero.

Brandon Phillips is what he is, and what he is is an awful hitter with the capability to put together a rare hot streak, which has been plainly clear by analyzing his entire professional baseball career. Outside of his white hot week in which he won an award for, he's been awful with the bat in a Reds uniform. Illustrating that point isn't panic; it's pointing out facts that Brandon Phillips is what he is.

Ryan Freel's career on-base percentage is 106 points higher than Brandon Phillips' putrid OBP of .262, Ryan Freel plays an adequate enough second base, and unlike Brandon Phillips, Ryan Freel is an optimal hitter in the leadoff slot. I won't deny that Phillips is probably the best defensive shortstop on our roster, however, unless he's actually playing shortstop, then he's not able to provide the team with the asset of being a good glove at short.

In 2005, the average MLB second baseman had an OPS 28 points higher than the average MLB shortstop. I can tolerate Phillips at the plate quite a bit more if he's playing shortstop than if he's playing second base. Putting him at second base just creates a bigger black hole in the lineup. Additionally, if Phillips is at shortstop instead of second base, his glove provides a little bit more value.

And no, Womack should have never even put on a Reds uniform.