RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

05-22-2006, 01:48 PM   #61
M2
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BCubb2003 I do have a question about the runs created formula. Is it true that the only element in the formula that actually produces a run is the sac fly? On some unlikely level, you could have a huge runs created number while never actually producing a run. In real life, all those bases acquired tend to push runs home. And the runs created total supposedly comes pretty close to the team's actual runs total. But doesn't it, like the RBI, depend on the performance of other players? Dunn could be acquiring all kinds of bases, but if Hatteberg, Valentin and McCracken aren't driving him in, the runs aren't being created. Should the runs created factor in left on base? Should there be an on base percentage in innings that don't produce a run?
RC is more quantum that linear in nature. The short answer is that the formula doesn't work if you don't take the more universal view with it. Oddly, what we've learned about offense is that it works better when you take a universal of it. It's a complex set of interdependencies based on same rather simple principles (get on base, rack up the total bases).
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 05-22-2006, 01:54 PM #62 Heath This one's for you Edd     Join Date: May 2005 Location: Dayton Area Posts: 8,471 Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet? All I know is that, historically speaking, that the average major leaguer will fail 7.5 times out of 10 at bats. By fail, I mean that someone gets an out. And, statiscally speaking, the more runs you score than the other team, generally will give you wins. Now, that Dr. Obvious has left the building - here's the point. Statistics are baseball. Like the Dow Market tracks stocks and historical trends and future projections, all the different types of statistics in baseball are used to analyize player performance. I mean, when I invest my 401(k) money, I don't choose my stocks/mutual funds because "They Have Veteran Stock Director Precesence" or "They Know How To Invest The Right Way". I look at this historical data and what shape the market is in now, compared to long-term financial goals. I even have an advisor (a "Manager" if you will) who helps with the research and keeps me up-to-date on trends. Same stuff with baseball. It's almost ignorant to forget about "past performance". Past Performance is a key to evaluating talent and dissecting trends and future performance. Baseball has been a thinking man's game for a very long time, and the mathematical data waiting to be analyzed is simply mind-boggling. The baseball season is a glorious occasion that covers parts of 2 equinoxes and an solistice. Its a marathon, not a sprint. It's patience, determination, and the crests of winning streaks and the valleys of losing streaks. This isn't football, slammed into 4 months, nor is it the artificially length generated by the NBA or NHL. In this micro-wave, fast-food, give-it-to-me-now, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, baseball basically is the anti-speed. There is an old cartoon by Charles Schultz with Charlie Brown and Lucy discussing the team stats. After Lucy breaks it down, Charlie Brown, with a defiant glare at Lucy says 'Lucy, tell your statistics to shut up." There are those in the Charlie Brown Camp...and those in Lucy's camp. But, hey its baseball and that's what matters. And woy looks bad in a dress. Unless its Halloween __________________ Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.
 05-22-2006, 01:56 PM #63 pedro Please come again     Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: portland, oregon Posts: 14,737 Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet? Nice analogy Heath. __________________ Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun
05-22-2006, 01:59 PM   #64
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Now, by the metric (BA w/ RISP) that the anti-Dunn crowd likes to use in its' arguments, Juan Encarnacion is clearly better player than Adam Dunn because his BA w/ RISP is much higher. And yet, Dunn is producing an RBI every 2.43 AB's within this period while Encarnacion is producing an RBI every 2.55 AB's.
"anti-Dunn crowd"??? Painting with a broad brush aren't we? I only know of one person that would truly be called that - BF. But hey! I'm anti-Dunn and I demand my money back from the Reds (for the figurines) and Skyline for the special cup...:
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 05-22-2006, 01:59 PM #65 BCubb2003 Haunted by walks   Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Syracuse Posts: 6,519 Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet? Is there a way to turn the anecdotes into a stat? To be fair to the other side, is it possible to count the "bases acquired but stranded"? We can call it BABS.
05-22-2006, 02:07 PM   #66
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KittyDuran "anti-Dunn crowd"??? Painting with a broad brush aren't we? I only know of one person that would truly be called that - BF. But hey! I'm anti-Dunn and I demand my money back from the Reds (for the figurines) and Skyline for the special cup...:
I guess I could call them the "pro aurilia" crowd because those are pretty much the only two players that come up in discussion about BA w/ RISP.

And honestly, I think "anti-dunn crowd" is a fair categorization considering the number of threads that have been created to bash him during his recent slump.
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05-22-2006, 02:07 PM   #67
NJReds
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BCubb2003 Is there a way to turn the anecdotes into a stat? To be fair to the other side, is it possible to count the "bases acquired but stranded"? We can call it BABS.
AKA: KRISP?

05-22-2006, 02:19 PM   #68
Heath
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NJReds AKA: KRISP?
mmmmm....donuts....
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05-22-2006, 02:21 PM   #69
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by guttle11 Ah, there you go again. Find for me where I ever said that Adam Dunn "costs" the team anything and I'll play your little game. Since you can't do that, have fun popping around the board proving everyone who has a different opinion than you wrong and wowing everyone with your vast "knowledge" of things other people came up with. Again, I'm done with this place and people like you for a while. The egos kill this place more than the "Adam Dunn suxxx!111!!1!" people.
Like M2 said, enjoy being paranoid.

You said Dunn's defense is not good and his baserunning is suspect.

When asked to elaborate, place a value on it and put in its proper context given Adam Dunn, the overall player, you've flatly refused.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by registerthis That's not really a fair question, IMO, because not everyone on this board possesses the ability and knowhow to analyze and study statistics to the level that posters such as yourself can, Cyclone. Doing what you're asking isn't "simple", it requires a very thorough understanding of various statistics and how they relate to one another. Perhaps you believe that if he is incapable/unwilling to go through the rigors of an in-depth statistical anlysis, it's not his right to hold an opinion on this topic--or at least he should expect to receive flak if he does. Fair enough. But an opinion based on observation rather than statistical analysis isn't necessarily faulty. I, too, am tired of the seemingly endless attacks on Dunn and his performance. I, too, wish that some people would have a better understanding of the numbers that drive the game. But expecting every poster with a contrary opinion to be able to provide a summarized analysis of statistics to the level that you do is simply expecting too much, IMO, and is what leads to many of the disagreements between the "statheads" and the "traditionalists" that have arisen on this board in recent weeks.
There are people who have opinions and always try to maintain an open mind, no matter their knowledge of statistics, baseball history, etc. And then there are people who have opinions and wouldn't know what an open mind was if it smacked them in the face.

I've learned an incredible amount in my time here from a vast array of posters, all of whom have made this an enjoyable board, and contrary to what many people may believe, they all aren't the statheads of this board, either. People don't have to be statheads to provide outstanding input, and I appreciate those people as much as the statheads. Collectively, those are the posters that make this a fine board, and there's plenty of those posters around.

The posters that get annoying are the ones that consistently remain close-minded and continue to harp on subjects with absolutely no basis of fact and no desire to step outside their own little world.
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05-22-2006, 02:26 PM   #70
BCubb2003
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NJReds AKA: KRISP?
It would be closer to "Walks with runners in scoring position and first base open." It would probably be a flawed statistic but it might reveal something.

Runners on second and third, batter walks, runners ended up stranded. Runner has acquired a base, but no runs scored.

Or batter hits a double, steals third, and is stranded there. Batter has acquired three bases, but still no runs score.

Or this:

Batter walks, and the next batter hits a home run. The first batter acquired one base, which led to a run.

Another batter hits a triple, and is stranded there. This batter has acquired three bases, none of which led to a run.

Next batter walks, and steals second. These two batters have acquired five bases and no runs.

Next batter hits a triple, acquiring the same number of bases as the other triple, but produces two runs.

I'm just trying to turn all these anecdotes into something we can measure.

 05-22-2006, 02:32 PM #71 redsfan30 Member   Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 7,624 Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet? I just wanted to throw my two cents in here. I think there have been two seperate groups formed wrongingly. The group "for" Dunn, and the group "against" Dunn. This is absurd. There are no "groups" as it appears there is. We are all Reds fans and we are all rooting for the same thing....wins. Just because someone points out something negative about Dunn does not mean they are "against" him. I think this board has somewhat of a tone that where some people think if you don't use stats in your posts you are not "educated" and they take your opinion as invalid. That's not right. Nor is it right to say those who do indulge themselves in the numbers don't enjoy the game, they just watch it to be right. When it comes to my opinion of Dunn, I'm in the middle. I don't think he is anywhere near as bad as one half makes him out to be, but I also don't think he's near as good as the other half makes him out to be. I'd really like to go more indepth on this, but to do so I need to have my thoughts more organized and right now I just don't have the time to do so. Even though I know my opinions on this subject are just a tear drop in the ocean, I'll be back later on tonight to go more indepth....if this thread hasn't been closed by then. __________________ "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill
05-22-2006, 02:43 PM   #72
KittyDuran
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Close the thread! Where's ochre when we need him?

Quote:
 When it comes to my opinion of Dunn, I'm in the middle. I don't think he is anywhere near as bad as one half makes him out to be, but I also don't think he's near as good as the other half makes him out to be.
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05-22-2006, 02:50 PM   #73
M2
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by redsfan30 I don't think he is anywhere near as bad as one half makes him out to be, but I also don't think he's near as good as the other half makes him out to be.
The main pro-Dunn argument I see having to be made again and again is that he helps a team score piles of runs. It's inarguably true and it's ridiculous that it has to be made ten times a day in response to the constant flow of nonsense that he doesn't contribute all that much to the offense. He's as good as he is in that regard -- not the best, but awfully good.

Frankly, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find many posts wildly overstating his value while you can find scads of them every day that wildly understate it.

This is not a two equally relevant sides to an argument with the truth lying in the middle situation. This is a case of folks arguing a mythology contrary to the reality of the situation. Seeking to claim some sort of faux middle ground, IMO, only lends credence to what has usually been a preposterous case made against the guy. I'm open to all manner of topics concerning Adam Dunn -- how to improve his hitting mechanics, what his optimal lineup placement should be, where he needs to be positioned defensively, whether the team would be better in the long run to trade him, how he needs to approach the shift, etc.

What I've lost any and all tolerance for is the lunatic notion that he doesn't deserve credit for the things he clearly does well and that meaningless stats should somehow supercede meaningful ones.
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05-22-2006, 02:53 PM   #74
registerthis
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Cyclone792 The posters that get annoying are the ones that consistently remain close-minded and continue to harp on subjects with absolutely no basis of fact and no desire to step outside their own little world.
There are several aspects of posters on this board that I find annoying, not just one. I'm not going to go any further with this for fear of completely derailing the thread, but I will say that the tendency to belligerently hammer home points of view to the point of redundancy is a trait shared equally by members of both camps. And I don't have a dog in this fight, so I'm not picking sides here. Just sharing my observations of a thread that is discussing some interestng and relevant points but has unfortunately turned a bit nasty.
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05-22-2006, 02:58 PM   #75
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Re: Has Adam Dunn's performance been beaten to death yet?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KittyDuran Close the thread! Where's ochre when we need him? Post of the year!
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