Stubbs is the real deal

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by reds44

Oh rly?

What was Adam Dunn? I know it wasn't number 1, and I think it was the 2nd round.

Yes it was, and he was dismissed as a dilettante in baseball like Henson (drafted the same year - round 3) until he was destroying the league in AA in 2001 on this board.
Stubbs (if he stays healthy) will be Griffey's replacement someday.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Adam Dunn also had big signing questions and wasnt coming out of college. If Adam Dunn had gone to college, and hit like he did in the minor leagues through the age of 21 (in which he was the minor league player of the year), he surely would have been the #1 overall pick of the draft. Adam Dunn has something Stubbs has shown he doesnt. The ability to walk. Adam Dunn may strikeout a TON, but he also walks a TON. Stubbs on the other hand, well he strikes out a ton, and walks none.

Stubbs' OPS is higher than Dunn's OPS this year. He has a .439 OPS (243 Abs) with 41 walks in 62 games while Dunn has .388 OPS(198 Abs) with 49 walks in 57 games.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Stubbs' OPS is higher than Dunn's OPS this year. He has a .439 OPS (243 Abs) with 41 walks in 62 games while Dunn has .388 OPS(198 Abs) with 49 walks in 57 games.

Think you mean OBP BR, but yeah, I think Stubbs looks like a pretty good pick to me.

[pedro]

found this on a blog...

Stubbs was a third round pick of the Houston Astros in the 2003 draft. He turned down seven figures to attend the University of Texas, and he burst onto the scene immediately with an impressive season for the Longhorns on his way to being named a freshman All-American. His early success prompted him to be named to Team USA the summer after his freshman season, where he hit .319. He also played for Team USA during the summer of 2005. He continued to produced during his sophomore season, hitting .311 with 35 extra base hits and swiping 32 bags in 38 attempts. He is a true yet rare five-tool athlete that blends an exciting combination of power and speed. He makes plays look effortlessly in centerfield, and is a threat on the basepaths every time he reaches. He also has considerable power potential, with the wheels to stretch doubles into triples. In high school, he lettered in baseball, football, basketball and track. The one area he will need to improve in is his strike zone discipline. He has walked 60 times in his 549 collegiate at-bats, but he has also struck out an alarming 146 times. He has drawn comparisons to Rocco Baldelli and Jeff Franceour given his amazing natural talents and skills, and projects to go very high in the draft next June.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Stubbs' OPS is higher than Dunn's OPS this year. He has a .439 OPS (243 Abs) with 41 walks in 62 games while Dunn has .388 OPS(198 Abs) with 49 walks in 57 games.

Stubbs is playing college baseball, not professional, and there is a world of difference between the two and trying to compare them is a very bad idea. As for Stubbs walks, I was wrong, I thought I read somewhere it was quite a bit lower than 41. However the OPS and OBP numbers are irrelevent, considering the levels the two play at, and that one is using aluminum in his hands.

[reds44]

The only real flaw Stubbs has is that he strikes out alot. As long as he walks and gets on base at a good clip, I could care less how much he strikes out.

[KronoRed]

Strike outs don't bother me much, just an out like the rest.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Strike outs don't bother me much, just an out like the rest.

Yep I agree.

[red-in-tx]

Originally Posted by NewEraReds

the min you said you were a texas fan made you extremely biased in my view. so i dont know how much to put into your opinion. just human nature to talk up guys from your team.

i think stubbs will be a good major leaguer, should have been picked, i dont think so, but hes pretty much a lock to make it

Of coarse I'm biased, I'm a Longhorn fan. Everyone is biased to some degree. There is no such thing as an unbiased opinion. Based on what I've seen this kid is a stud. I'm also probably one of the only members on this sight that has consistantly seen him play throughout his career at Texas and seen his development. He was truly a star the moment he stepped on campus.

[OnBaseMachine]

I was a bit disappointed with the pick of Stubbs at first, mainly because I wanted the Reds to draft a college pitcher. I'm coming around to Stubbs now, though. The power is there for him to hit 30-35 home runs a year, he has a fairly good eye at the plate, and the defense is gold glove caliber. The only knock is the strikeouts, which don't really bother me. There is still a chance he could fix that hole in his swing and eventually cut down on the K's. He has the potential to the best positional player to come out of this draft, but on the flip side he also has the best chance of being a total bust as a hitter.

Upside: Eric Davis with less stolen bases

Downside: Reggie Taylor

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Stubbs is playing college baseball, not professional, and there is a world of difference between the two and trying to compare them is a very bad idea. As for Stubbs walks, I was wrong, I thought I read somewhere it was quite a bit lower than 41. However the OPS and OBP numbers are irrelevent, considering the levels the two play at, and that one is using aluminum in his hands.

Huh? College stats don't count? Don't buy it for a second.

I agree there is a difference between college and professional, but a lot of teams look at college numbers before they draft players. Sure you have many great college players who don't make it professionally. But also there are a number of average college players who DO make it professionally. There is no way you can realistically count Stubbs out the day after he is drafted. What I'm reading from many draft anaylsists is that Stubbs wasn't a bad pick at all.

[dougdirt]

I didnt say stats dont count, I said trying to compare stubbsnumbers at Texas to Adam Dunns numbers in the majors is quite silly.

I dont think Stubbs is finished, nor was the the worst pick we could have taken (as for now, see round 2 and 3). I think Stubbs has the highest cieling of anyone we took. I do have a lot of questions about Stubbs though... and that is something I dont like having about the #8 overall pick in the draft.

[princeton]

so, what do you think about Carson Kainer?

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

The power is there for him to hit 30-35 home runs a year, he has a fairly good eye at the plate, and the defense is gold glove caliber. The only knock is the strikeouts, which don't really bother me.

Stubbs averaged a walk once every 8.8 PAs -- which is a number I'd love to see him replicate and improve upon as he makes his way through the minors.

However, his AB/HR numbers need to improve dramatically if he ever wants to achieve the kind of power you're projecting him at. That's not something I'm too confident on, given that he'll be facing vastly superior competition as he goes through the minors as well as the adjustment to hitting with wood over aluminum.

As far as his strikeouts go -- strikeouts generally don't bother me, but the one area of this kid's game that is allegedly refined is his speed. It's hard to maximize the value of speed when you're whiffing, on average, more than once a game. Though, I can go either way on this: increasing selectivity will let him use his speed as well.

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	71	266	51	80	16	3	8	47	28	6	28	75	.301	.372	.474	846
2005	72	283	67	88	20	4	11	46	32	6	32	71	.311	.384	.527	911
2006	62	243	65	83	14	4	12	58	26	6	41	60	.342	.439	.580	1.019

[princeton]

power comes late. If he controls the strike zone, then Stubbs will hit HRs and will be a huge find for the Reds.

it's a big if, but it's always nice to have just one thing to work on. would that I was just one skill away from being a star.